Yanks Will Not Win 85 Games

[Razz]

Even for a #5 starter, 2/4 "good" starts isn't enough, especially when he has gotten absolutely hammered in those other 2 starts.

Two out of four is unacceptable over the long haul, but it's too early to tell if that will continue as he becomes accustomed to American baseball. I don't think it will, but if he continues at that rate, well, I guess we'll need Phillip Hughes to be everything he is supposed to be.
But really, Igawa hasn't been any more "absolutely hammered" than Schilling in his other two starts, and Schilling is the ace (or co-ace) of the Boston staff. Giving up 7 runs in 4.0 IP against the Royals is worse than anything Igawa has done, and the Yankees killed Schill as well. But no one is talking about him being washed up. With that said, I would only expect a couple more starts like that from Schilling the rest of the year, and I'm sure he'll rebound quite nicely tonight against an Orioles team he has dominated.
My overall point is that it's too early in the season to make wide, sweeping judgments about players who have four career starts.

[Razz]

That's fine - it depends on what you call a good start for a pitcher. It's just that I don't class a 3.375 ERA and a 3.30 ERA as a "good start". I'd call that an average start for a pitcher. I might call it a slightly better than average start for a #5 pitcher. But I wouldn't call it a "good start".

Well, you certainly have high standards. Or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about.

Career ERA's of HOF pitchers:

Steve Carlton 3.22
Bob Feller 3.25
Catfish Hunter 3.26
Fergie Jenkins 3.34
Bob Lemon 3.23
Phil Niekro 3.35
Robin Roberts 3.41
Nolan Ryan 3.20
Don Sutton 3.26
Dazzy Vance 3.24
Early Wynn 3.54

Career ERA's of current pitchers:

Curt Schilling 3.44
Randy Johnson 3.23
Jake Peavy 3.47
Tom Glavine 3.46
Johan Santana 3.20
Roy Halladay 3.59
John Smoltz 3.28

Ben Sheets and Josh Beckett are both considered very good pitchers. Both have pitched 7 seasons, and only once had an ERA under 3.30. Wake up.

[Razz]

Oh, and I'm not sure how I let this slide the first two times you posted it, but 2 ER in 6 IP is a 3.00 ERA.

[jjgold]

Yanks will not win 80 games +110

[tacomax]

Well, you certainly have high standards. Or maybe you just don't know what you're talking about.

I don't think you understand. I'll try and simplify it.

You get a pitcher with, say, a lifetime ERA of 3.75 - this is the mean ERA. The earned runs conceded by that pitcher over time will have a specified distribution with an associated variance and standard deviation. I'm not going to sit here and work this out, but let's assume the standard deviation is 0.40 to simplify things for you.

Let's say that the pitcher had a game with an ERA of 3.00 and a game with an ERA of 4.50 (which average out at 3.75). Would you say that he had once good game and one bad game? I would say no - I would say that they are two average starts since the respective ERAs lie with 2 standard deviations of the mean - the variations in ERA for the two games can be explained by simple variance within the game of baseball. However, if he had starts of 2.00 and 5.50 (again a mean of 3.75) then I would class that as one good start and one bad start.

Incidentally, I don't think that someone who is predicting 77 wins for the Red Sox and 100 wins for the Blue Jays this season should be accusing other people of not knowing what they're talking about.

[Razz]

Incidentally, I don't think that someone who is predicting 77 wins for the Red Sox and 100 wins for the Blue Jays this season should be accusing other people of not knowing what they're talking about.

17-6 the last two days. I predicted 100 wins if they stayed healthy, and said that I thought it was unlikely they would stay healthy. They've already lost their biggest power hitter and their dominant closer, as well as another key player and their main set-up man.
You know the number 77 was just a dig at the Red Sox, though I still don't think they will make the playoffs.

[Razz]

Let's say that the pitcher had a game with an ERA of 3.00 and a game with an ERA of 4.50 (which average out at 3.75). Would you say that he had once good game and one bad game? I would say no - I would say that they are two average starts since the respective ERAs lie with 2 standard deviations of the mean - the variations in ERA for the two games can be explained by simple variance within the game of baseball. However, if he had starts of 2.00 and 5.50 (again a mean of 3.75) then I would class that as one good start and one bad start.

An ERA of 3.00 is good. The average total in a MLB game is 9 or 10. So, for me, an average start is one with an ERA of 4.5 or so. Anything around 3.00 is a good start (very good for a back-end starter), and around 2.00 I would call very good (great for a back-end starter).
Don't be mad at me because Liverpool are playing like Spurs.

[The Prick]

jj, gimme that over 84.5 for yer max. when it's time to pay me I ain't gonna settle for a hummer, neither. cash money

[Willie Bee]

Yanks will not win 80 games +110

Put me down for whatever limit you have on that, I'll take the over. Let's find a third party to hold the cash; I don't want a BJ from you either.

[onlooker]

Pettite pulls his usual crap, he had a 2 run lead going into the 5th and gave it right back, plus some.

Yankees are in serious trouble if they don't get their pitching in order. Geez they are garbage.

7 losses in a row after tonight. Good to see them in a tail spin. But I'm sure they will be there in the end.

[jjgold]

Yanks could finish in last place

over 80 wins +135

[Stumpage]

Yanks could finish in last place

over 80 wins +135

Like Prick and Bee, I'll take this action as well (And I also wholeheartedly support the "no oral stimulation required" clause)...

[hitbitritz]

yanks will make hte playoffs. the boss will make it happen. he does every year. this isnt the first time in the past few yrs theyve started slow.

[tacomax]

Igawa now sent to Class-A Tampa. The Yankees certainly know how to pick 'em.

[Razz]

Igawa now sent to Class-A Tampa. The Yankees certainly know how to pick 'em.

C'mon on now, you know he'll be back. Anyone that has the stuff to shut down the Red Sox like he did will be back. That move is simply to build up his confidence and get some type of consistent performances instead of his yo-yo act.

[Razz]

Clemens is not inked yet.

That took a long time.

[tacomax]

C'mon on now, you know he'll be back. Anyone that has the stuff to shut down the Red Sox like he did will be back. That move is simply to build up his confidence and get some type of consistent performances instead of his yo-yo act.

I know he'll be back, but come on. The Yankees paid $9 million a year for him on a 5 year deal and he was there about 3 months before the start of the season. And now he's being shipped to the Single-A's to - in his own (translated) words - "emphasize on basics". They had 3 frickin' months to "emphasize on basics". If you're paying that much coin for a pitcher, you'd either expect him to have the basics or you'd make damn sure he had the basics before the start of the season.

[Razz]

I know he'll be back, but come on. The Yankees paid $9 million a year for him on a 5 year deal and he was there about 3 months before the start of the season. And now he's being shipped to the Single-A's to - in his own (translated) words - "emphasize on basics". They had 3 frickin' months to "emphasize on basics". If you're paying that much coin for a pitcher, you'd either expect him to have the basics or you'd make damn sure he had the basics before the start of the season.

I wish I could dispute any of that.

[tacomax]

That took a long time.

I'm dying to remind you of your pre-season predictions for the AL East.

[Razz]

I'm dying to remind you of your pre-season predictions for the AL East.

While you do that, check who I picked to win the National League.

And to be fair, I put a caveat in there about how injuries could destroy the Blue Jays season, which, frankly, they are. They're still going to take this series from the Sox though.

[Razz]

Hopefully someone besides Louis Braille is umpiring second base tomorrow night.

[moses millsap]

Gerry Davis cashed my +160 ticket for me with that HORRENDOUS call.

[onlooker]

That took a long time.

Well no one said Clemens was smart. Yankees still don't win 90 games.