Decided to pass on Monday. Would have been basically a break-even day if I had played, but it was nice to have a night with no stress. Besides, I saw that Tuesday would be a pretty big card.
13-14, +2.29
1* Fathers -110 (GM/WM)
Well, they looked good tonight, but the Cubs are an up and down team. They still have been awful at home this season, and I think Maddux does nicely in his return to Wrigley. Wade Miller is too hittable not to be a decent underdog here, and San Diego has the much better pen. I'll lay the short number on the road.
1* Diamondbacks -115 (MO/BT)
Sure, Tomko was strong in his first outing, but I don't think he repeats it here against a Diamondbacks team that has been as good as any in baseball in the early going. The Dodgers might struggle with Owings, who has been sensational in his first two starts - 1.59 ERA, 11 K, 1.06 WHIP, and a .195 BAA in 11.1 innings.
1* Yankees -137 (CW/JW)
I honestly don't know a lot about Chase Wright. He was very good in the minors last year, 12-3 with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. But, the fact that he is left-handed really appeals to me, as the Indians haven't fared well against lefties in recent years, and especially without Martinez. Meanwhile, Westbrook hasn't been very good this year, and all four Yankees hitters that have faced him more than 10 times are hitting over .300 against him. The Yankees have the better pen and lineup, and I just think they rebound from the tough loss in Oakland Sunday.
1* Royals +186 (JdlR/MM) & 1* Under 9 (-125)
Who the **** is Mike Maroth to be this big a favorite against anybody? The Royals lineup is pretty decent, though it doesn't get much respect, and they can score off Maroth here. The Tigers are averaging a .213 batting average and 2.5 rpg against lefty starters this year. They were near the bottom of the league in both categories last year as well. The Royals aren't scoring a lot of runs, and even though they have been hitting lefties better than righties, I don't expect an offensive explosion.
1* Blue Jays +137 (GC/DM) & 1* Under 9 (-120)
A better line will probably be available tomorrow, but I won't be. The Jays have actually owned the Red Sox as much as anyone in MLB the past couple seasons, and sending a lefty to the mound against the Red Sox is always a good start to beating them (especially while Manny is struggling, as that makes neutralizing Ortiz and Drew the key to keeping Boston off the scoreboard). Chacin is incredibly underrated. I have no clue why he is ignored. His career numbers are almost identical to Scott Kazmir's, but Kazmir is regarded as the best young lefty in the game while Chacin is really not regarded at all. That's a shame, but that's also why this line is so generous. Again, I respect Matsuzaka, and his start to the year, but the teams he has pitched against are the Royals and the Mariners. The offense is much, much stronger here, and I think four or five runs wins this one for Toronto.
1* Devil Rays -103 (CF/ST)
I don't often utter the phrase, "I'll take Casey Fossum minus ..." but I think the situation is right here. The tough loss tonight could affect Tampa either positively or negatively, but since they are mostly young kids, I think the Rays come out and give a good effort tomorrow. Fossum was pretty good against Minnesota his last time out, and he should do decently well against an Oriole team that struggles similarly against LHP. Trachsel is always hittable, and I think the Rays tee off on him.
13-14, +2.29
1* Fathers -110 (GM/WM)
Well, they looked good tonight, but the Cubs are an up and down team. They still have been awful at home this season, and I think Maddux does nicely in his return to Wrigley. Wade Miller is too hittable not to be a decent underdog here, and San Diego has the much better pen. I'll lay the short number on the road.
1* Diamondbacks -115 (MO/BT)
Sure, Tomko was strong in his first outing, but I don't think he repeats it here against a Diamondbacks team that has been as good as any in baseball in the early going. The Dodgers might struggle with Owings, who has been sensational in his first two starts - 1.59 ERA, 11 K, 1.06 WHIP, and a .195 BAA in 11.1 innings.
1* Yankees -137 (CW/JW)
I honestly don't know a lot about Chase Wright. He was very good in the minors last year, 12-3 with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. But, the fact that he is left-handed really appeals to me, as the Indians haven't fared well against lefties in recent years, and especially without Martinez. Meanwhile, Westbrook hasn't been very good this year, and all four Yankees hitters that have faced him more than 10 times are hitting over .300 against him. The Yankees have the better pen and lineup, and I just think they rebound from the tough loss in Oakland Sunday.
1* Royals +186 (JdlR/MM) & 1* Under 9 (-125)
Who the **** is Mike Maroth to be this big a favorite against anybody? The Royals lineup is pretty decent, though it doesn't get much respect, and they can score off Maroth here. The Tigers are averaging a .213 batting average and 2.5 rpg against lefty starters this year. They were near the bottom of the league in both categories last year as well. The Royals aren't scoring a lot of runs, and even though they have been hitting lefties better than righties, I don't expect an offensive explosion.
1* Blue Jays +137 (GC/DM) & 1* Under 9 (-120)
A better line will probably be available tomorrow, but I won't be. The Jays have actually owned the Red Sox as much as anyone in MLB the past couple seasons, and sending a lefty to the mound against the Red Sox is always a good start to beating them (especially while Manny is struggling, as that makes neutralizing Ortiz and Drew the key to keeping Boston off the scoreboard). Chacin is incredibly underrated. I have no clue why he is ignored. His career numbers are almost identical to Scott Kazmir's, but Kazmir is regarded as the best young lefty in the game while Chacin is really not regarded at all. That's a shame, but that's also why this line is so generous. Again, I respect Matsuzaka, and his start to the year, but the teams he has pitched against are the Royals and the Mariners. The offense is much, much stronger here, and I think four or five runs wins this one for Toronto.
1* Devil Rays -103 (CF/ST)
I don't often utter the phrase, "I'll take Casey Fossum minus ..." but I think the situation is right here. The tough loss tonight could affect Tampa either positively or negatively, but since they are mostly young kids, I think the Rays come out and give a good effort tomorrow. Fossum was pretty good against Minnesota his last time out, and he should do decently well against an Oriole team that struggles similarly against LHP. Trachsel is always hittable, and I think the Rays tee off on him.
