[b]Yesterday: (PUSH) 5-3 final with the 'Stros pulling out a much needed win on the strength of an Adam Everett homer. The total was set at 8.
TUESDAY, APRIL 10th (2:20 ET)
Chris Sampson vs. Jason Marquis
First things first for any game at Wrigley. Weather report indicates the wind is blowing out towards LF at 11 mph. Temp in the upper 40s today. As for the match-up, Sampson is a big question mark as the 'Stros #5. He pitched a gem vs. the Cubs last year, going 7 innings and yielding no runs at Minute Maid Park. That however featured only two of today's probable Cubs hitters in Barrett and Ramirez. He had a 3-2 mark with a 2.15 ERA in split time between starting and working the pen. The knock on Sampson is his ability to go deep into a game. The Cubs game in '06 was his longest outing and he has already worked a 3 inning relief appearance this season.
Marquis was trash last year with STL, but pitched well in his first start for the Cubs. His record at Wrigley though is not sparkling, 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 4 starts. He had two solid starts vs. HOU last year and two sub-par ones. As Dan pointed out in his thread on the over in this game, several Astros KILL Marquis. Berkman lifetime .571, Ensberg .469, Lee .333, Lane .333. Those all coming with more than 15 ABs against him.
Options: Cubs (-143), Cubs RL (+140), Astros (+133), Astros RL (-16), Over9 (+105), Under9 (-125)
Analysis: I see no value with Marquis at this price and Sampson for me is still a question as a starter. He might go 7 and give up nothing again, he might go 3 and get tagged for 5 or more runs. Both teams left a ton of men on base yesterday as well, which could bode well for an over play IF they hit with RISP. With that being said, the total is where we go today.
Pick: Over9 (+105)
TUESDAY, APRIL 10th (2:20 ET)
Chris Sampson vs. Jason Marquis
First things first for any game at Wrigley. Weather report indicates the wind is blowing out towards LF at 11 mph. Temp in the upper 40s today. As for the match-up, Sampson is a big question mark as the 'Stros #5. He pitched a gem vs. the Cubs last year, going 7 innings and yielding no runs at Minute Maid Park. That however featured only two of today's probable Cubs hitters in Barrett and Ramirez. He had a 3-2 mark with a 2.15 ERA in split time between starting and working the pen. The knock on Sampson is his ability to go deep into a game. The Cubs game in '06 was his longest outing and he has already worked a 3 inning relief appearance this season.
Marquis was trash last year with STL, but pitched well in his first start for the Cubs. His record at Wrigley though is not sparkling, 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 4 starts. He had two solid starts vs. HOU last year and two sub-par ones. As Dan pointed out in his thread on the over in this game, several Astros KILL Marquis. Berkman lifetime .571, Ensberg .469, Lee .333, Lane .333. Those all coming with more than 15 ABs against him.
Options: Cubs (-143), Cubs RL (+140), Astros (+133), Astros RL (-16), Over9 (+105), Under9 (-125)
Analysis: I see no value with Marquis at this price and Sampson for me is still a question as a starter. He might go 7 and give up nothing again, he might go 3 and get tagged for 5 or more runs. Both teams left a ton of men on base yesterday as well, which could bode well for an over play IF they hit with RISP. With that being said, the total is where we go today.
Pick: Over9 (+105)
