EP36's Astros Daily Pick (2-4-1 [-2.88])

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    EP36's Astros Daily Pick (2-4-1 [-2.88])
    [b]Yesterday: (PUSH) 5-3 final with the 'Stros pulling out a much needed win on the strength of an Adam Everett homer. The total was set at 8.

    TUESDAY, APRIL 10th (2:20 ET)
    Chris Sampson vs. Jason Marquis
    First things first for any game at Wrigley. Weather report indicates the wind is blowing out towards LF at 11 mph. Temp in the upper 40s today. As for the match-up, Sampson is a big question mark as the 'Stros #5. He pitched a gem vs. the Cubs last year, going 7 innings and yielding no runs at Minute Maid Park. That however featured only two of today's probable Cubs hitters in Barrett and Ramirez. He had a 3-2 mark with a 2.15 ERA in split time between starting and working the pen. The knock on Sampson is his ability to go deep into a game. The Cubs game in '06 was his longest outing and he has already worked a 3 inning relief appearance this season.

    Marquis was trash last year with STL, but pitched well in his first start for the Cubs. His record at Wrigley though is not sparkling, 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in 4 starts. He had two solid starts vs. HOU last year and two sub-par ones. As Dan pointed out in his thread on the over in this game, several Astros KILL Marquis. Berkman lifetime .571, Ensberg .469, Lee .333, Lane .333. Those all coming with more than 15 ABs against him.

    Options: Cubs (-143), Cubs RL (+140), Astros (+133), Astros RL (-16), Over9 (+105), Under9 (-125)

    Analysis: I see no value with Marquis at this price and Sampson for me is still a question as a starter. He might go 7 and give up nothing again, he might go 3 and get tagged for 5 or more runs. Both teams left a ton of men on base yesterday as well, which could bode well for an over play IF they hit with RISP. With that being said, the total is where we go today.

    Pick: Over9 (+105)
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    I like your play Mr.Eagles.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      So must alot of peeps - the Over jumped in the last 2 minutes at BetJam from +105 to -105.
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Having Berkman and Lee show up together for a game would sure help. Don't like to depend on Adam Everett for our offense
        Comment
        • bigboydan
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-10-05
          • 55420

          #5
          Originally posted by Willie Bee
          Having Berkman and Lee show up together for a game would sure help. Don't like to depend on Adam Everett for our offense
          Don't you have to like your chances for those two to actually show up with numbers like this against Marquis:

          biggio .296
          lane .344
          berkman .568
          ensberg .440
          lee .406
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Sure, I love their numbers in the past against Marquis. What I meant was I'd like to see those two show up on a consistent basis regardless of the pitcher. And Lee has to make teams pay for walking Berkman in front of him. El Caballo has looked more like El Carappo so far...but then, I never liked the contract they gave him in the first place.
            Comment
            • bigboydan
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 08-10-05
              • 55420

              #7
              Ya, They definitely over paid for Lee thats for sure.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #8
                I'm hoping this will at least be a start where the offense can score 5+ in back-2-back games. Even if they lose, that'd be good for their confidence. ENSBERG is the one who really needs to be the 3rd cog.
                Comment
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