PHI/FLA – This line is suspiciously low, probably due in part to Florida starter Scott Olsen’s poor career record vs. Philadelphia and his iffy first start of the season where he gave up 5 BB in 5+ innings. But he is still an experienced and decent starter, and Philadelphia’s starter, Zack Segovia, is making his major league debut. Florida’s legitimately potent offense will not likely let him get away with much, and Florida probably has value as a small favorite.
ARI/WASH – All three games have gone under in this series so far, and there is likely value with the under here again, although the line, 8.5, which could be had at +100 at various places last night, had fallen substantially. Still, this game features 2 sub-par offenses, and a combination of decent pitching from the 2 reasonable starters and the bullpens is more likely than not to keep the game under. There’s probably also some value left with Washington as a small home dog, as their lineup is not more feeble than Arizona’s and starting pitcher Shawn Hill has pitched capably in his few starts in his career at this park.
MINN/WSOX – Johan Santana puts up astounding numbers in the controlled conditions of the Metrodome, but for this game it’s quite possible things could be very different. Aside from Santana’s known issues with the beginning of the year and pitching on the road, this game will have a very cold temperature, which figures to be a neutralizer of sorts.
White Sox’ starter John Danks had sporadic success this spring and last year in the minors, and he could benefit here from the cold.
The White Sox lineup is off to a slow start this year, but the danger is still there. With the cold throwing a monkey wrench into the normal process of things, the White Sox probably have decent value as a huge home dog.
COL/SD – There are times when there is value to be had on an under even with a low posted total, and this might be one of those games. Jake Peavey is jumping out of his skin to make up for last year’s frustrating injury-plagued season, and he is sure to be trying to throw a shutout here. You can guarantee he will bear down with anyone in scoring position. On the other side, Colorado starter Aaron Cook has had good success pitching at Petco in his career, which stands to reason as his sinkerballing, “let ‘em hit it” style of pitching has a greater margin for error in a park like this. The ball does carry better in the day at San Diego, but that should be more than made up for by the pitching and offenses involved. If Peavey gives another 6-inning, shutout performance, which is entirely possible, it will be a challenge for the total to go over.
Dodgers/SF – Even though day games tend to go over in SF, there might be some value with the under here. Neither offense brings a whole lot to the table, and none of San Francisco’s 5 home games so far has produced more than 8 runs. This game, however, has a posted total of 8.5, and features decent starting pitching to boot. The wind as always is a big factor at San Francisco, so a wind blowing out might temper enthusiasm for an under. But HP ump Brian Runge has also trended to the under in his career, at more than 56% since 1999, and with generally high strike percentages
ARI/WASH – All three games have gone under in this series so far, and there is likely value with the under here again, although the line, 8.5, which could be had at +100 at various places last night, had fallen substantially. Still, this game features 2 sub-par offenses, and a combination of decent pitching from the 2 reasonable starters and the bullpens is more likely than not to keep the game under. There’s probably also some value left with Washington as a small home dog, as their lineup is not more feeble than Arizona’s and starting pitcher Shawn Hill has pitched capably in his few starts in his career at this park.
MINN/WSOX – Johan Santana puts up astounding numbers in the controlled conditions of the Metrodome, but for this game it’s quite possible things could be very different. Aside from Santana’s known issues with the beginning of the year and pitching on the road, this game will have a very cold temperature, which figures to be a neutralizer of sorts.
White Sox’ starter John Danks had sporadic success this spring and last year in the minors, and he could benefit here from the cold.
The White Sox lineup is off to a slow start this year, but the danger is still there. With the cold throwing a monkey wrench into the normal process of things, the White Sox probably have decent value as a huge home dog.
COL/SD – There are times when there is value to be had on an under even with a low posted total, and this might be one of those games. Jake Peavey is jumping out of his skin to make up for last year’s frustrating injury-plagued season, and he is sure to be trying to throw a shutout here. You can guarantee he will bear down with anyone in scoring position. On the other side, Colorado starter Aaron Cook has had good success pitching at Petco in his career, which stands to reason as his sinkerballing, “let ‘em hit it” style of pitching has a greater margin for error in a park like this. The ball does carry better in the day at San Diego, but that should be more than made up for by the pitching and offenses involved. If Peavey gives another 6-inning, shutout performance, which is entirely possible, it will be a challenge for the total to go over.
Dodgers/SF – Even though day games tend to go over in SF, there might be some value with the under here. Neither offense brings a whole lot to the table, and none of San Francisco’s 5 home games so far has produced more than 8 runs. This game, however, has a posted total of 8.5, and features decent starting pitching to boot. The wind as always is a big factor at San Francisco, so a wind blowing out might temper enthusiasm for an under. But HP ump Brian Runge has also trended to the under in his career, at more than 56% since 1999, and with generally high strike percentages