BAL/NYY – The Yankees have burned holes in some pockets recently, losing as huge favorites, as they have done in the past and will continue to do this year and probably for the rest of eternity. But sometimes they are a legitimate big favorite at home, sometimes even with value, and this might be one of those times.
Steve Trachsel has always overachieved relative to his stuff, and he is often inordinately vulnerable in big games or against big lineups, and with the Yankees off of some less than inspiring losses, he may well get crushed here. The cold weather will probably reduce whatever margin for error he may have had before, and the Yanks’ big bats will be primed to take advantage.
Yankees’ starter Kei Igawa is no ace, and had some problems with control in spring. But he clearly has talent, and Baltimore does not have a lineup that is likely to overly challenge him. Their lack of familiarity with him will only serve as an added disadvantage to them.
After badly overrating the Yankees to start off the season, the market will likely not push this line too much higher than it opened. A play on the Yankees, or maybe better yet the RL, might be warranted.
PITT/CIN – Pittsburgh might have value as a big underdog in this game. Aaron Harang is a very impressive starter overall, no doubt, but he is coming off of a 113-pitch outing, and Pittsburgh has a livelier lineup than they have had in recent years.
The key will be inconsistent Tony Armas, starting for Pittsburgh. He had a good spring, and has always been more promising than his performance on the field has shown. If he has a mediocre start and Harang has another stellar outing, which is a likely scenario, Cincinnati will take this game. If not, which is a possibility, Pittsburgh will have value as a big underdog.
DODGERS/SF – Here comes Russ Ortiz, back for the attack. Supposedly, he and Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone figured out that the reason he went 0-8 with an ERA around 8 and a BAA around .330 last year was “how the ball was coming out of his glove”. I don’t know, it probably also had something to do with how the ball was coming out of his hand.
But he did have a decent spring, throwing 18 innings, getting 13 strikeouts and giving up only 6 runs. And then he followed that with a strong outing against a Double A lineup last week. So maybe he has turned things at least somewhat around. However, until he shows he can give quality starts in the majors with any kind of consistency, it’s probably not a good idea to bet on any game he starts unless the line for his team is a huge underdog.
Taking a shot with LA as a medium-sized road favorite might be an OK thing to do, since Derek Lowe is always capable of a shutdown start, and San Francisco has more problems than just having Russ Ortiz in their rotation. But there are a lot of unknowns involved here, so it’s probably best to keep any bet on this game in any way a small one.
MINN/WSOX – What an interesting game – 2 starting pitchers with a small chance of a quality start and a big chance of a bad start, both coming off of terrible springs, going up against 2 strong offenses. Will Silva throw 7 shutout innings, or will he give up 8 runs in 3? There are not many positives for either pitcher here.
But the White Sox do probably have a small edge in both lineup and starting pitching, and manager Ozzie Guillen is a no-nonsense motivator, so the White Sox might be a good play as a small home favorite with Minnesota coming off of a home sweep. Still, the likelihood of all outcomes for this game are low, so it would probably be best to keep the bet size low any way this game is bet.
Steve Trachsel has always overachieved relative to his stuff, and he is often inordinately vulnerable in big games or against big lineups, and with the Yankees off of some less than inspiring losses, he may well get crushed here. The cold weather will probably reduce whatever margin for error he may have had before, and the Yanks’ big bats will be primed to take advantage.
Yankees’ starter Kei Igawa is no ace, and had some problems with control in spring. But he clearly has talent, and Baltimore does not have a lineup that is likely to overly challenge him. Their lack of familiarity with him will only serve as an added disadvantage to them.
After badly overrating the Yankees to start off the season, the market will likely not push this line too much higher than it opened. A play on the Yankees, or maybe better yet the RL, might be warranted.
PITT/CIN – Pittsburgh might have value as a big underdog in this game. Aaron Harang is a very impressive starter overall, no doubt, but he is coming off of a 113-pitch outing, and Pittsburgh has a livelier lineup than they have had in recent years.
The key will be inconsistent Tony Armas, starting for Pittsburgh. He had a good spring, and has always been more promising than his performance on the field has shown. If he has a mediocre start and Harang has another stellar outing, which is a likely scenario, Cincinnati will take this game. If not, which is a possibility, Pittsburgh will have value as a big underdog.
DODGERS/SF – Here comes Russ Ortiz, back for the attack. Supposedly, he and Baltimore pitching coach Leo Mazzone figured out that the reason he went 0-8 with an ERA around 8 and a BAA around .330 last year was “how the ball was coming out of his glove”. I don’t know, it probably also had something to do with how the ball was coming out of his hand.
But he did have a decent spring, throwing 18 innings, getting 13 strikeouts and giving up only 6 runs. And then he followed that with a strong outing against a Double A lineup last week. So maybe he has turned things at least somewhat around. However, until he shows he can give quality starts in the majors with any kind of consistency, it’s probably not a good idea to bet on any game he starts unless the line for his team is a huge underdog.
Taking a shot with LA as a medium-sized road favorite might be an OK thing to do, since Derek Lowe is always capable of a shutdown start, and San Francisco has more problems than just having Russ Ortiz in their rotation. But there are a lot of unknowns involved here, so it’s probably best to keep any bet on this game in any way a small one.
MINN/WSOX – What an interesting game – 2 starting pitchers with a small chance of a quality start and a big chance of a bad start, both coming off of terrible springs, going up against 2 strong offenses. Will Silva throw 7 shutout innings, or will he give up 8 runs in 3? There are not many positives for either pitcher here.
But the White Sox do probably have a small edge in both lineup and starting pitching, and manager Ozzie Guillen is a no-nonsense motivator, so the White Sox might be a good play as a small home favorite with Minnesota coming off of a home sweep. Still, the likelihood of all outcomes for this game are low, so it would probably be best to keep the bet size low any way this game is bet.