Phillies at Dodgers: NLCS Rematch
Randy Wolf is no longer the starter for LA against Philly in the first game of the NLCS, but it's still a battle of lefthanders when the Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.
If the Phillies are a little tired when the 2009 NLCS finally gets underway in Los Angeles on Thursday, it's because they've been racking up the air miles traveling back and forth across the country the past few days following Monday's dramatic win over the Rockies in Denver.
Philadelphia left Colorado after that game and traveled home before coming all the way back to LA on Wednesday to begin their rematch for the NL Pennant with the Dodgers. According to the Oddsmakers, this NLCS will turn out differently than in 2008 when the Phils bested the Bums four games to one on their way to the World Series Championship. The Dodgers opened around -115 to take down the defending champs, a price that has risen to -125 most places as the Game 1 starting pitchers became clearer.
For Game 1, LA was originally the -110 favorite when everyone thought Randy Wolf would be opposing Cole Hamels for Philadelphia. That line has since moved into the -130s, even -140 at some shops with the word on Thursday afternoon that Joe Torre was going to go with Clayton Kershaw instead.
Game 1's total was set at 7½ where it has stayed at 5Dimes, the Under being the thicker chalk now.
Even though the majority of their rosters are the same as last October, a lot has changed for these two teams in those 12 short months. And a big factor in the Phillies being the underdogs despite being the defending champs is the difference between the 2008 and 2009 versions of Philadelphia's Game 1 starter, Cole Hamels.
Hamels was on fire last October, earning MVP honors in both the NLCS and World Series win over the Rays. In fact, despite an up-&-down season, the young lefty pitched superbly against the Dodgers in two starts this year, allowing just one earned in 16 innings of work vs. LA in 2009.
Over Hamels' last six starts vs. the Dodgers, Philly is 4-2 with the southpaw sporting a 2.04 ERA over 44 innings. That includes two wins in last year’s NLCS and a 5-hit shutout on June 4 in LA when the Phillies won 3-0.
But he exited September off two bad outings, a trend that has continued into his two October starting assignments up to now. The fact his wife was going into labor can be an excuse for his start at home against the Rockies last week, but he's definitely on the hook for getting back into his previous form and the clincher in the public's perception right now that the boy just ain't right for one reason or another.
Joe Torre's switch from Wolf to Kershaw is a bold one to some degree, but also makes sense on many levels. Kershaw made two starts against the Phils this season and LA lost both. The southpaw who is barely old enough to buy liquor worked a total of 10.1 innings and gave up six runs, all earned.
Exactly how Torre will set his rotation after Kershaw is still unclear, but my guess would be Vicente Padilla in the comfy confines of Chavez Ravine on Friday for Game 2 and open the Philly part of the trip with Randy Wolf who has experience in the park and the city. Hiroki Kuroda could be able to return while the series is in Philadelphia as well, leaving Chad Billingsley as the likely long relief option.
Kershaw's 8-8 record this season masks the fact he has assumed the mantle of Dodgers staff ace already. Torre reportedly would have gone with the kid in Game 5 of the NLDS if it had gone that far, and why not since Torre has often remarked Kershaw reminds him of a young Sandy Koufax.
One more big difference in the two clubs is it was Philadelphia that had the better bullpen in 2008; this year the Dodgers have the best in the majors with Phillies relievers very inconsistent. Maybe Brad Lidge is going to get it back together with two hitless saves in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, but just getting to Lidge could be shaky.
The key in this one is Phillies pitching and I like Hamels to have a good game. Phillies +125 and Under 7½ for me.
STARTING PITCHERS
NLCS Game 1, Thu, 8:07 p.m. (ET): Cole Hamels (16-16, 4.32; LDS 0-1, 7.20) vs. Randy Wolf (23-11, 3.23; LDS 1-0, 4.91)
UMPIRE
Randy Marsh will chief the NLCS umpiring crew and draw Game 1 duties behind the plate. With 28 MLB seasons under his belt in the big leagues, the 60-year old Marsh stood 18-14 this season in favor of the home team and went 19-12-1 O/U on the totals.
A veteran of 18 postseason series, Marsh last called the balls and strike in a playoff game during the 2007 ALCS between the Red Sox and Indians when he also served as the crew chief. He worked Game 1 (a 10-3 Boston rout) and Game 7 (an 11-2 Boston rout), both games at Fenway.
The rest of the NLCS crew rounds out with Bruce Dreckman (1B in Game 1), Sam Holbrook (2B), Ted Barrett (3B), Tom Hallion (LF), Gary Cederstrom (RF).
WEATHER
Believe it or not it looks like LA could start the day with some showers, but that tapers off and it should be just fine come first pitch. Current forecasts call for the thermometer to be in the low-to-mid 70s when the game gets underway a little after five o'clock local time. Winds are listed out of the at 5-10 out of the WNW (from left into 1B).
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com and of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
Randy Wolf is no longer the starter for LA against Philly in the first game of the NLCS, but it's still a battle of lefthanders when the Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.
If the Phillies are a little tired when the 2009 NLCS finally gets underway in Los Angeles on Thursday, it's because they've been racking up the air miles traveling back and forth across the country the past few days following Monday's dramatic win over the Rockies in Denver.
Philadelphia left Colorado after that game and traveled home before coming all the way back to LA on Wednesday to begin their rematch for the NL Pennant with the Dodgers. According to the Oddsmakers, this NLCS will turn out differently than in 2008 when the Phils bested the Bums four games to one on their way to the World Series Championship. The Dodgers opened around -115 to take down the defending champs, a price that has risen to -125 most places as the Game 1 starting pitchers became clearer.
For Game 1, LA was originally the -110 favorite when everyone thought Randy Wolf would be opposing Cole Hamels for Philadelphia. That line has since moved into the -130s, even -140 at some shops with the word on Thursday afternoon that Joe Torre was going to go with Clayton Kershaw instead.
Game 1's total was set at 7½ where it has stayed at 5Dimes, the Under being the thicker chalk now.
Even though the majority of their rosters are the same as last October, a lot has changed for these two teams in those 12 short months. And a big factor in the Phillies being the underdogs despite being the defending champs is the difference between the 2008 and 2009 versions of Philadelphia's Game 1 starter, Cole Hamels.
Hamels was on fire last October, earning MVP honors in both the NLCS and World Series win over the Rays. In fact, despite an up-&-down season, the young lefty pitched superbly against the Dodgers in two starts this year, allowing just one earned in 16 innings of work vs. LA in 2009.
Over Hamels' last six starts vs. the Dodgers, Philly is 4-2 with the southpaw sporting a 2.04 ERA over 44 innings. That includes two wins in last year’s NLCS and a 5-hit shutout on June 4 in LA when the Phillies won 3-0.
But he exited September off two bad outings, a trend that has continued into his two October starting assignments up to now. The fact his wife was going into labor can be an excuse for his start at home against the Rockies last week, but he's definitely on the hook for getting back into his previous form and the clincher in the public's perception right now that the boy just ain't right for one reason or another.
Joe Torre's switch from Wolf to Kershaw is a bold one to some degree, but also makes sense on many levels. Kershaw made two starts against the Phils this season and LA lost both. The southpaw who is barely old enough to buy liquor worked a total of 10.1 innings and gave up six runs, all earned.
Exactly how Torre will set his rotation after Kershaw is still unclear, but my guess would be Vicente Padilla in the comfy confines of Chavez Ravine on Friday for Game 2 and open the Philly part of the trip with Randy Wolf who has experience in the park and the city. Hiroki Kuroda could be able to return while the series is in Philadelphia as well, leaving Chad Billingsley as the likely long relief option.
Kershaw's 8-8 record this season masks the fact he has assumed the mantle of Dodgers staff ace already. Torre reportedly would have gone with the kid in Game 5 of the NLDS if it had gone that far, and why not since Torre has often remarked Kershaw reminds him of a young Sandy Koufax.
One more big difference in the two clubs is it was Philadelphia that had the better bullpen in 2008; this year the Dodgers have the best in the majors with Phillies relievers very inconsistent. Maybe Brad Lidge is going to get it back together with two hitless saves in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, but just getting to Lidge could be shaky.
The key in this one is Phillies pitching and I like Hamels to have a good game. Phillies +125 and Under 7½ for me.
STARTING PITCHERS
NLCS Game 1, Thu, 8:07 p.m. (ET): Cole Hamels (16-16, 4.32; LDS 0-1, 7.20) vs. Randy Wolf (23-11, 3.23; LDS 1-0, 4.91)
UMPIRE
Randy Marsh will chief the NLCS umpiring crew and draw Game 1 duties behind the plate. With 28 MLB seasons under his belt in the big leagues, the 60-year old Marsh stood 18-14 this season in favor of the home team and went 19-12-1 O/U on the totals.
A veteran of 18 postseason series, Marsh last called the balls and strike in a playoff game during the 2007 ALCS between the Red Sox and Indians when he also served as the crew chief. He worked Game 1 (a 10-3 Boston rout) and Game 7 (an 11-2 Boston rout), both games at Fenway.
The rest of the NLCS crew rounds out with Bruce Dreckman (1B in Game 1), Sam Holbrook (2B), Ted Barrett (3B), Tom Hallion (LF), Gary Cederstrom (RF).
WEATHER
Believe it or not it looks like LA could start the day with some showers, but that tapers off and it should be just fine come first pitch. Current forecasts call for the thermometer to be in the low-to-mid 70s when the game gets underway a little after five o'clock local time. Winds are listed out of the at 5-10 out of the WNW (from left into 1B).
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com and of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
