Jays set sights on October
Last year's offseason additions helped Toronto upset the standings in the AL East. Now the Blue Jays hope to take the next step and earn a postseason berth.
Toronto’s offseason spending spree prior to the 2006 season was criticized by many as just throwing away A+ money on a bunch of B+ players. Following an 80-82 record in 2005, and the club’s seventh third-place finish in nine seasons in the AL East, general manager JP Ricciardi went out and signed free agent pitchers AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan along with catcher Bengie Molina, and traded for first baseman Lyle Overbay in hopes of getting the Blue Jays back into contention in a division that had been dominated by the Yankees and Red Sox.
Ricciardi and Toronto weren’t just competing with New York and Boston, but with the entire majors as the Blue Jays looked to get back to their glory days of the early 90s when the club won back-to-back World Series in 1992-93. But before the Jays could compete for the World Series again, they had to get past their division rivals.
Trying to keep up with the Jones’ can be an expensive and often frustrating exercise. And so it was, to some degree for Toronto last year as the club failed to make the playoffs once again, a drought that has now reached 13 seasons. But Ricciardi and the Blue Jays did upset the status quo in the AL East, if only for one season. For the first time since 1997, the AL East didn’t have New York and Boston in the top two rankings. That might be little consolation for the Blue Jays who were hoping for more. But as we’re often reminded in life, great journeys begin with but a single step.
Toronto was very much in the division race the first half of the season, sitting a game out after April and owning a 45-34 record at the end of June, a record that would’ve been good enough to sit in first in three of the other five divisions at the time. But the club then tailed off in July and August, posting a 24-31 record in those two months and experiencing internal strife that involved Shea Hillenbrand who was eventually cut after a he said, they said scene that seemed cut straight from a daytime soap opera.
How much of that played a role in the club’s July-August slump will never be known. But it appears to be behind the team now, and after making a couple more tweaks to the roster this winter, just upsetting the status quo in the AL East won’t be enough for the franchise in 2007 as they look towards a playoff run.
OFFENSE
The offense begins with the outfielders, both literally and figuratively. Reed Johnson will be in left and bat leadoff, Alex Rios is in right and the #2 or #6 hole of the order, and Vernon Wells, freshly signed to a 7-year, $126 million contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2014, will play center and bat third. Each of the trio hit .302 or better last year and accounted for 245 of Toronto’s 809 runs last season (30%). Considering that Rios missed about a month’s worth of games with two separate injuries last year, the figures are all that more exciting.
Adam Lind will be the primary backup in the outfield, with Matt Stairs, in camp on a minor league contract, also possibly seeing some limited action. Ideally, the club would have Lind start of in the minors in order to keep him busy. But they may not have that luxury unless someone comes out of the blue to claim the #4 OF slot.
Rios could be shifted from the 2-hole in the batting order in order to stick Overbay’s line-drive bat in that slot. That probably makes more sense just to break up the right-handers at the top of the order, not to mention Overbay’s on-base numbers.
With Overbay at first, the rest of the infield will be Aaron Hill at second, Troy Glaus at third and Royce Clayton, acquired during the winter via free agency, at short. Though Glaus seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 30 and coming off yet another 30+ homer campaign.
Clayton has been around forever and, at 37, he will be pushed by several others to keep the starting shortstop job. John McDonald and Ray Olmedo are around to do that pushing, with McDonald a favorite to stick in a reserve role. Hill could also move to short if the situation warrants with Russ Adams taking the 2B job.
Gregg Zaun is the #1 backstop now after Bengie Molina departed just a year after signing with the Jays. Zaun isn’t going to make anyone forget Johnny Bench behind the plate or with a bat in his hands, but he’s better than many give him credit for. Jason Phillips is the best bet to stick as Zaun’s backup, with Sal Fasano also a possibility.
With Hillenbrand cut during the 2006 season and Frank Catalanotto departing to the Rangers with a new free agent deal, the DH job goes to Frank Thomas who was inked after his strong showing with the A’s a year ago. Big Hurt stayed out of the trainer’s room in Oakland last year and responded to critics who thought he was done with a 39-HR season. His stick will be vital to the Jay’s lineup this year.
PITCHING
The good news here is the Blue Jays have two of the best arms in the business at the top of their rotation and in their closer’s role. Roy Halladay can match up with any starter in the game these days and is the best bet, perhaps the only bet, to unseat Minnesota’s Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young Award.
If Burnett can stay healthy and make 30+ starts for the Jays in ’07, Toronto should have a very competitive 1-2 punch in their rotation. But behind those two, the waters get a little murky.
Left-hander Gustavo Chacin was limited to just 17 starts due to elbow troubles in 2006, and though he went 9-4 in those starts, his ERA was over 5.00 and his affinity for working deep into accounts limits the number of innings he remains on the mound in any given start.
Assuming Chacin wins the #3 job, the final two slots in the rotation will be decided between John Thomson, Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers. Victor Zambrano is recovering from surgery and is doubtful to start the season in the rotation. Casey Janssen could come up and assume a spot if the need arises, and Shaun Marcum will probably start in long relief out of the pen and could also take a turn or two in the rotation.
BJ Ryan turned in a solid performance in his first year with Toronto after the big contract he got to come over from Baltimore. The lefty appeared in 65 games with 38 saves and a dazzling 1.37 ERA, so winning games once they have the lead going into the ninth will not be a problem for the Jays.
Getting to the ninth with that lead could be a bit of a struggle, however. Brandon League, expected to be Ryan’s primary setup arm after a nice 2006, has been slowed this spring with a sore shoulder and straight muscle. If he can’t get into some action soon, he could open the year on the DL. Scott Downs, a southpaw, and Jason Frasor figure to get work in the seventh and eight innings as well.
Jeremy Accardo, who came to Toronto from the Giants in the hastened Hillenbrand deal, Brian Tallet and Francisco Rosario are also in the bullpen plans.
Key Player(s): If the Jays are truly going to compete with the big boys in the AL East, they will need some capable starting pitching behind Halladay in the rotation. The offense should be fine, barring a major injury or two, so guys like Burnett, Chacin, Thomson and Ohka don’t have to turn in Cy Young years to just keep Toronto in games or the race.
Futures: Win totals vary from 86½ at Bodog and Greek/default.aspx" target="_blank">The Greek to 87 at Pinnacle. Winning the AL East appear at around 5:1 to 6:1, roughly 10:1 to 12:1 to win the AL and anywhere from 18:1 to 25: 1 to go all the way.
My projections appear to be back to business as usual in the AL East with the Blue Jays finishing third with 87-88 wins.
Last year's offseason additions helped Toronto upset the standings in the AL East. Now the Blue Jays hope to take the next step and earn a postseason berth.
Toronto’s offseason spending spree prior to the 2006 season was criticized by many as just throwing away A+ money on a bunch of B+ players. Following an 80-82 record in 2005, and the club’s seventh third-place finish in nine seasons in the AL East, general manager JP Ricciardi went out and signed free agent pitchers AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan along with catcher Bengie Molina, and traded for first baseman Lyle Overbay in hopes of getting the Blue Jays back into contention in a division that had been dominated by the Yankees and Red Sox.
Ricciardi and Toronto weren’t just competing with New York and Boston, but with the entire majors as the Blue Jays looked to get back to their glory days of the early 90s when the club won back-to-back World Series in 1992-93. But before the Jays could compete for the World Series again, they had to get past their division rivals.
Trying to keep up with the Jones’ can be an expensive and often frustrating exercise. And so it was, to some degree for Toronto last year as the club failed to make the playoffs once again, a drought that has now reached 13 seasons. But Ricciardi and the Blue Jays did upset the status quo in the AL East, if only for one season. For the first time since 1997, the AL East didn’t have New York and Boston in the top two rankings. That might be little consolation for the Blue Jays who were hoping for more. But as we’re often reminded in life, great journeys begin with but a single step.
Toronto was very much in the division race the first half of the season, sitting a game out after April and owning a 45-34 record at the end of June, a record that would’ve been good enough to sit in first in three of the other five divisions at the time. But the club then tailed off in July and August, posting a 24-31 record in those two months and experiencing internal strife that involved Shea Hillenbrand who was eventually cut after a he said, they said scene that seemed cut straight from a daytime soap opera.
How much of that played a role in the club’s July-August slump will never be known. But it appears to be behind the team now, and after making a couple more tweaks to the roster this winter, just upsetting the status quo in the AL East won’t be enough for the franchise in 2007 as they look towards a playoff run.
OFFENSE
The offense begins with the outfielders, both literally and figuratively. Reed Johnson will be in left and bat leadoff, Alex Rios is in right and the #2 or #6 hole of the order, and Vernon Wells, freshly signed to a 7-year, $126 million contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2014, will play center and bat third. Each of the trio hit .302 or better last year and accounted for 245 of Toronto’s 809 runs last season (30%). Considering that Rios missed about a month’s worth of games with two separate injuries last year, the figures are all that more exciting.
Adam Lind will be the primary backup in the outfield, with Matt Stairs, in camp on a minor league contract, also possibly seeing some limited action. Ideally, the club would have Lind start of in the minors in order to keep him busy. But they may not have that luxury unless someone comes out of the blue to claim the #4 OF slot.
Rios could be shifted from the 2-hole in the batting order in order to stick Overbay’s line-drive bat in that slot. That probably makes more sense just to break up the right-handers at the top of the order, not to mention Overbay’s on-base numbers.
With Overbay at first, the rest of the infield will be Aaron Hill at second, Troy Glaus at third and Royce Clayton, acquired during the winter via free agency, at short. Though Glaus seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 30 and coming off yet another 30+ homer campaign.
Clayton has been around forever and, at 37, he will be pushed by several others to keep the starting shortstop job. John McDonald and Ray Olmedo are around to do that pushing, with McDonald a favorite to stick in a reserve role. Hill could also move to short if the situation warrants with Russ Adams taking the 2B job.
Gregg Zaun is the #1 backstop now after Bengie Molina departed just a year after signing with the Jays. Zaun isn’t going to make anyone forget Johnny Bench behind the plate or with a bat in his hands, but he’s better than many give him credit for. Jason Phillips is the best bet to stick as Zaun’s backup, with Sal Fasano also a possibility.
With Hillenbrand cut during the 2006 season and Frank Catalanotto departing to the Rangers with a new free agent deal, the DH job goes to Frank Thomas who was inked after his strong showing with the A’s a year ago. Big Hurt stayed out of the trainer’s room in Oakland last year and responded to critics who thought he was done with a 39-HR season. His stick will be vital to the Jay’s lineup this year.
PITCHING
The good news here is the Blue Jays have two of the best arms in the business at the top of their rotation and in their closer’s role. Roy Halladay can match up with any starter in the game these days and is the best bet, perhaps the only bet, to unseat Minnesota’s Johan Santana for the AL Cy Young Award.
If Burnett can stay healthy and make 30+ starts for the Jays in ’07, Toronto should have a very competitive 1-2 punch in their rotation. But behind those two, the waters get a little murky.
Left-hander Gustavo Chacin was limited to just 17 starts due to elbow troubles in 2006, and though he went 9-4 in those starts, his ERA was over 5.00 and his affinity for working deep into accounts limits the number of innings he remains on the mound in any given start.
Assuming Chacin wins the #3 job, the final two slots in the rotation will be decided between John Thomson, Tomo Ohka and Josh Towers. Victor Zambrano is recovering from surgery and is doubtful to start the season in the rotation. Casey Janssen could come up and assume a spot if the need arises, and Shaun Marcum will probably start in long relief out of the pen and could also take a turn or two in the rotation.
BJ Ryan turned in a solid performance in his first year with Toronto after the big contract he got to come over from Baltimore. The lefty appeared in 65 games with 38 saves and a dazzling 1.37 ERA, so winning games once they have the lead going into the ninth will not be a problem for the Jays.
Getting to the ninth with that lead could be a bit of a struggle, however. Brandon League, expected to be Ryan’s primary setup arm after a nice 2006, has been slowed this spring with a sore shoulder and straight muscle. If he can’t get into some action soon, he could open the year on the DL. Scott Downs, a southpaw, and Jason Frasor figure to get work in the seventh and eight innings as well.
Jeremy Accardo, who came to Toronto from the Giants in the hastened Hillenbrand deal, Brian Tallet and Francisco Rosario are also in the bullpen plans.
Key Player(s): If the Jays are truly going to compete with the big boys in the AL East, they will need some capable starting pitching behind Halladay in the rotation. The offense should be fine, barring a major injury or two, so guys like Burnett, Chacin, Thomson and Ohka don’t have to turn in Cy Young years to just keep Toronto in games or the race.
Futures: Win totals vary from 86½ at Bodog and Greek/default.aspx" target="_blank">The Greek to 87 at Pinnacle. Winning the AL East appear at around 5:1 to 6:1, roughly 10:1 to 12:1 to win the AL and anywhere from 18:1 to 25: 1 to go all the way.
My projections appear to be back to business as usual in the AL East with the Blue Jays finishing third with 87-88 wins.
