MLB Picks - Thursday, 6/30/22

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 08:13 AM

5 MLB Plays Thursday

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Twins / Guardians OVER 8.5 -105 (ACTION)
Phillies -145
Braves / Phillies OVER 8.5 -108
Yankees -116
Pirates +116

**iwantcougars** · 06-30-22, 09:46 AM

Lt, what you think of the indians -1.5

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

Lt, what you think of the indians -1.5

I have -1.5 at 45%, which is +122

Do with that as you wish

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 10:10 AM

You need a big day today. The picks look good, but pretty gutsy to lay -145 with struggling Phillies. Is that Braves pitcher very bad?

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 10:44 AM

Everyone saying I need this and need that, being -8 at end of June is not end of the world, especially given my history of strong finishes.

I have nothing against Jethro Tull, I have him a touch above average. But I have Nola as underrated, well above average.

**stake1** · 06-30-22, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Everyone saying I need this and need that, being -8 at end of June is not end of the world, especially given my history of strong finishes.

I have nothing against Jethro Tull, I have him a touch above average. But I have Nola as underrated, well above average.

phillies are 5-1 in Nola's last six starts with the only loss 1-0 to the padres. he struggled early, but has gotten into his groove now

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by stake1

phillies are 5-1 in Nola's last six starts with the only loss 1-0 to the padres. he struggled early, but has gotten into his groove now

I still think he is underrated though because he is not usually mentioned among the top pitchers in baseball (the 4-5 record blinds many people) when in fact he is 7th in the Major Leagues in xFIP at 2.88. The only "negative" is you want to call it that is the lack of variance between his xFIP and his 2.98 ERA, which should mean he is pitching at his proper level with no room for positive regression. But it is a very good level to be at.

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 11:34 AM

Excellent info

**iwantcougars** · 06-30-22, 11:34 AM

LT what about the reds ml

**jjgold** · 06-30-22, 11:40 AM

LT your heading in the wrong direction

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by iwantcougars

LT what about the reds ml

I have my eye on them myself but will probably pass. CUBS 51% (-104)

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

LT your heading in the wrong direction

1-5 yesterday knocked me back, was 0-6 before Marlins 9th inning.

**stackz125** · 06-30-22, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Everyone saying I need this and need that, being -8 at end of June is not end of the world, especially given my history of strong finishes.

I have nothing against Jethro Tull, I have him a touch above average. But I have Nola as underrated, well above average.

Is there a pitching change? I see Ian Anderson pitching for Atlanta. Who is Jethro Tull?

**jjgold** · 06-30-22, 12:28 PM

You could never bet Philadelphia without Harper always remember that

**Twisted_One** · 06-30-22, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

You could never bet Philadelphia without Harper always remember that

Only the 1st game after man goes down. I swear I do pretty well when I bet on said teams 1st gm w/o their star. They all focus and it wins more than it loses. Phils have a patchwork pen and they r fielding minor leaguers right now. Tread lightly and definitely wait for line ups
GL

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

Is there a pitching change? I see Ian Anderson pitching for Atlanta. Who is Jethro Tull?

I am showing my age! Ian Anderson was the flutist from Jethro Tull, thus my cheeky reference. Ian was considered by many the first rock'n'roll flutist.

**Twisted_One** · 06-30-22, 01:38 PM

GOOD SHIT!!! Love Jethro Tull... Crank it up!! They shouldnt have beat out Metallica tho @ the fkin Grammys!! Look that crap up lmao

Phils line up looks ok GL

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by Twisted_One

Only the 1st game after man goes down. I swear I do pretty well when I bet on said teams 1st gm w/o their star. They all focus and it wins more than it loses. Phils have a patchwork pen and they r fielding minor leaguers right now. Tread lightly and definitely wait for line ups
GL

The model does not recognize confirmed lineups?

**Brock Landers** · 06-30-22, 02:46 PM

Thank God I'm not on any of those

**LT Profits** · 06-30-22, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by spippen

The model does not recognize confirmed lineups?

Model has default lineups so I can bet overnights. Switches to actual lineups as I see them. And obviously Harper was not in default, so liked Philly without him (mostly a play on Nola)

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Model has default lineups so I can bet overnights. Switches to actual lineups as I see them. And obviously Harper was not in default, so liked Philly without him (mostly a play on Nola)

I can see why 👍

**stake1** · 06-30-22, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I still think he is underrated though because he is not usually mentioned among the top pitchers in baseball (the 4-5 record blinds many people) when in fact he is 7th in the Major Leagues in xFIP at 2.88. The only "negative" is you want to call it that is the lack of variance between his xFIP and his 2.98 ERA, which should mean he is pitching at his proper level with no room for positive regression. But it is a very good level to be at.

his start to the 2022 season had lots to do with that as well. another 7 innings from Nola tonight, and the phils go to 6-1 in his last 7 starts.
nice call on the over in philly, that was one of those totals play that you had to "sweat"

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 08:48 PM

Looking like this may be the beginning of consistent plus units. Timing is everything.

Solid plays so far tonight.

**spippen** · 06-30-22, 09:27 PM

3-2, 2 losses very close.

I'd call this a good day.