MLB Picks - Tuesday, 8/10/21

**LT Profits** · 08-10-21, 09:26 AM

2 MLB Pick Additions

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +116 (Heritage)
Orioles -102 (Heritage)
Indians +131 (Bookmaker)
Royals +140 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Giants OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)

**stackz125** · 08-10-21, 11:13 AM

Not sure what you see in Baltimore. Detriot has the better arn, bullpen and starting line up IMO.
Care to share your thoughts?

**LT Profits** · 08-10-21, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

Not sure what you see in Baltimore. Detriot has the better arn, bullpen and starting line up IMO.
Care to share your thoughts?

Tigers are overachieving, they have nearly 10 more wins than they should have based on their metrics.

But back on point, for this game, I get Baltimore 53% (-113), and I actually disagree with all three of your points. I have the starters and bullpens both about even (starters equally bad, pens equally average), and while I have both lineups below average, I actually have O's a hair better by about 2%. Mize is negative regression candidate (3.57 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 4.31 xFIP), Akin is positive regression candidate (7.66 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 4.85 xFIP)

**LT Profits** · 08-10-21, 12:17 PM

Another MLB Pick Addition

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +116 (Heritage)
Orioles -102 (Heritage)
Nationals / Mets UNDER 8.5 -113 (Heritage)
Indians +131 (Bookmaker)
Royals +140 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Giants OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)

**StackinGreen** · 08-10-21, 01:40 PM

LT, do you ever rank the plays even though you don't necessarily weight them or bet them with different amounts?

**chosen4th** · 08-10-21, 03:50 PM

Where’d the haters go?

**LT Profits** · 08-10-21, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

LT, do you ever rank the plays even though you don't necessarily weight them or bet them with different amounts?

No because it is not really worth the effort for me, as I have found from experience that my plays hit at basically the same rate regardless of the model variance amount.

**44 Mag** · 08-10-21, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +116 (Heritage)
Orioles -102 (Heritage)
Nationals / Mets UNDER 8.5 -113 (Heritage)
Indians +131 (Bookmaker)
Royals +140 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Giants OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)

What do you see on the Royals to place a bet on them, despite the plus money?? I am leaning Yankees.

**LT Profits** · 08-10-21, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

What do you see on the Royals to place a bet on them, despite the plus money?? I am leaning Yankees.

I only get Yankees 55% (-122) primarily because I have the starting pitchers just about equally bad. Cortes is one of the biggest regression candidates in all of MLB, given his 2.15 ERA vs. 4.09 xFIP. He has benefitted by a probably unsustainable 80.6% strand rate and he has been lucky allowing a .256 BABIP.

**Roastedpeanuts** · 08-10-21, 08:21 PM

Great job keep it up LT!

**clockwise1965** · 08-10-21, 08:29 PM