MLB - Wednesday, 8/21/19

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Rockies -105 (Heritage)
Indians / Mets UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 264-299-13, -29.12 (Another Season-Low )


Record at All-Star Break: 183-208-10, -21.46

[Sam Odom]

Get even with the Padres today... put 30 units on it

JJ says they are golden

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Rockies -105 (Heritage)
Indians / Mets UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Giants / Cubs UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)

[juicername]

Out of curiosity, what do you get for the Tigers game?

[flakeandbake]

Seeing Rockies -1.5 +140 on one book and +1.5 -210ish on most books.

Not sure what to think of that

[jjgold]

This is bad

Does he hit 30 units today??

[LT Profits]

Out of curiosity, what do you get for the Tigers game?

Not a mirage...

Houston 81% (-426)

[LT Profits]

Seeing Rockies -1.5 +140 on one book and +1.5 -210ish on most books.

Not sure what to think of that

Not uncommon for gamws close to a Pick.

[pilebuck13]

No love for the angels huh

[NBAtony]

Think Gray got scratched -- how do you feel about his replacement?

[LT Profits]

No Action on Rockies with Gray scratched and now out for the season, down to 3 plays.

[sk0002]

this is by far the worst season for your model correct?? perhaps you need to adjust for the sides, favorites are winning at a crazy rate due to the juiced balls.

[jjgold]

LT refuses to adjust even after it was well know balls were juiced

His model does not include 1.7 more runs each team

I tried to tell him but he went nuts

[KVB]

LT refuses to adjust even after it was well know balls were juiced

His model does not include 1.7 more runs each team

I tried to tell him but he went nuts

This is interesting. It's so tough for LT to be able to incorporate that without serious speculation.

Besides, the market adjusted around him and he did fine.

I believe he is fine on totals.

Now the extra runs do favor the favorites, in fact, a place where LT is negative, but it would be very, very difficult for LT to move forward business wise with his method if forced to speculate on just what the adjustment would be moving forward in the season.

Maybe there's just not enough data, maybe there are just too many assumptions to make and few ways to test them to make a decision to invest.

Sometimes it's better to stay the course, Gold, and let the market sort itself out.

[eddycash]

Maybe LT should build 2 more algorithm systems and choose plays that favor value when all three systems coincide with one another.

[jjgold]

If ball is juiced next year LT must make changes if not could be -30 units or more .

[KiDBaZkiT]

Should of stuck with Rockies. Az not even trying.

[flakeandbake]

No Action on Rockies with Gray scratched and now out for the season, down to 3 plays.

LT question - I assume you always make damn sure you check off the “pitchers name” when choosing the action on your bets ?

Asking since I got lucky AF with Rockies ml in a parlay today and it adjusted by default to the new adj. open. Does the same hold true for individual bets when choosing “action regardless” or do you typically get refunded pre-game (in terms of the auto adj.)

[flakeandbake]

I just don’t remember being auto adjusted before when individual betting (I have always in parlays) . Pretty sure “action regardless” just freezes the line you placed and doesn’t adjust either way, correct?