What did you learn from MLB this year?

[BuddyBear]

Well the MLB season is finally over...7 months worth of games! By far and away the best sport for me.

But what did you learn this year?

Any insights, do's and dont's, experiences you want to share we can do it all in this thread.

For me, i identified some profitable trends that deal with pitching rematches as well as situational trends that deal with losing pitchers vs. winning pitchers.

[Razz]

Do:
Find an undervalued team or two (my big one this year was the Brewers) and ride them.
Fade pitchers and teams who are overvalued (Josh Beckett, Jaret Wright, John Thomson, Matt Clement)
Bet on a pitcher with a good history against the team they are playing, if he has lost to them in his last start.

Don't:
Bet a bevy of totals.
Bet on the National League in the World Series.

[newb411breaker19]

baseball is my surest thing to a winning season. overall, the daily grind of analyzing starting pitchers and finding more statistically solid underdog pitchers. I also learned to favor the under a bit over the over

[Senator7]

The Brewers are going to be very good very soon.

Senator 7

[BuddyBear]

The Brewers are going to be very good very soon.

Senator 7

GO BREWCREW.....they should be very competitive next year. Waiting to see what they do this offseason in terms of acquisitions.

[pags11]

I learned a long time ago not to bet baseball...

[AK]

I learned a long time ago not to bet baseball...

I disagree

[bigboydan]

i've learned that theres still money to be made in baseball

[BadAzz]

I learned that if you think you found an unbelievable scalping opportunity you MIGHT want to DOUBLE CHECK the listed pitchers in BOTH of the bookies you are using.

/BadAzz

[EBone]

Just a few comments about this:

1) I went from 4.34% winning percentage on the volume I bet in 2004 to a 0.16% winning percentage on the volume I bet in 2005. The question is why? My answer would be that I bet too many favorites this year compared to 2004. Experience tells me that the ratio of dogs to favorites bet should be, at a minimum, 2:1. Probably somewhere between 2:1 and 3:1.

2) Another lesson learned from 2004 and 2005 is to ride your hot team. The team I did the best with in 2005 were the Houston Astros, 2004 it was the New York Mets. Also, if there is a team you are just not seeming to get right the majority of the time and it comes up as a pick, fade it. I remember in 2004 that I was coming up on just about every occasion to take the guy pitching against Johan Santana. Bad move, very bad move. It really cost me and I learned after that to give up if you are trying to buck a trend. The trend usually doesn't buck.

3) I personally track my road underdog, home underdog, road favorite and home favorite records......My home favorites in 2004 were outstanding. 2005 was not-so-good. I also track them and split them into records before and after the all-star break. Road underdogs after the all-star break in both 2004 and 2005 were extremely viable. So, from my perspective and from how I handicap games, I'm certainly gonna press on road underdogs in 2006.


Just a couple of things on the forefront of my noggin.


E

[why]

Pitching could not be bet consistently. It was a tough year! Hitting or run scoring teams were more consistent than pitchers.

[aje]

There were some consistently bad road teams early on.

[David]

Don't bet against the White Sox in the post-season.

[onlooker]

I learned a long time ago not to bet baseball...

Really? I find it one of the best sports to bet on.

[bigboydan]

i think he might mean booking baseball onlooker