How is this NOT a lock?

woodman663 · 07-09-09, 10:29 AM

Results from the past are no guarantee for the future.

That, and betting your entire bankroll is just plain stupid.

VegasDave · 07-09-09, 10:38 AM

Tonight, Lannan faces Ortiz... a very winnable game for the Nats.

Tomorrow, Olsen faces Oswalt... an almost certain win for the Astros

Saturday, Stammen faces Hampton... edge to the Astros

Personally, I wouldn't bet my entire bankroll on a .500 team sending Ortiz and Hampton to the mound. I think its a decent bet, but not an OMG-lock bet.

In fact, considering Scott Olsen is one of Washington's worst (Nats are 2-7-1 in his starts this season) and he is coming off of a strong game in Atlanta (on paper anyway... 8.2 IP 3 ER looks good, but 8 hits and 5 walks in that one, could have been worse) going up against Houston's best in Roy Oswalt, I don't imagine the 'Stros will be much chalkier than -240... why not just bet that game tomorrow?

curious · 07-09-09, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by woodman663

Results from the past are no guarantee for the future.

That, and betting your entire bankroll is just plain stupid.

Ah, let him bet his $10 if he wants.

JC2008 · 07-09-09, 10:41 AM

There's no such thing as a lock. The people thought the same thing when they thought there was no way the Yankees would lose the series to the Nationals, look what happened. Oh well, serves people right for laying 600 to win 100 or whatever the odds were haha.

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 10:44 AM

I was looking at the Nats past road series (3 games) and they have 2 wins this season (@ Dbacks, @ Yankees)

If they can win @ Yankees then I guess anything is possible, they even lost the 1st game of that series.

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 10:45 AM

I figure I would get better odds just fading the Nats ML for all 3 games.

No way they can take 3 in a row, on the road...

themajormt · 07-09-09, 11:40 AM

Instead of the series I would bet the Stros each game and chase if they lose... I have done it 3 times this year and it has worked and I dont think they have swept a series yet. Could be wrong but just going off of my recollection and not facts.

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 11:43 AM

No major its a fact the nats haven't swept a series at all this season. Nothing new for me I fade them its money in the bank.

paco · 07-09-09, 12:16 PM

Nationals took the sries from the yankees on the road

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by paco

Nationals took the sries from the yankees on the road

Yes Paco they took the series but not swept. Just play the hou ml and chase to a win. The astros will win at least one of these games.

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 02:39 PM

I think im going to fade the Nats ML for the rest of the season.

These guys are almost averaging 1 error per game, that's insane.

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

I think im going to fade the Nats ML for the rest of the season.

These guys are almost averaging 1 error per game, that's insane.

That's what I have been doing.

The money keeps flowing in.

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 02:44 PM

I cant believe the Nats are only getting +112 on the road here. Are the odds makers wrong? or do the Nats just under perform?

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

I cant believe the Nats are only getting +112 on the road here. Are the odds makers wrong? or do the Nats just under perform?

Both, plus the betting public gives the nats way too much respect. Why? I have no clue.

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 02:50 PM

That doesnt add up. Something else is going on here. But until the Nats start getting +200 every game, im going to fade them.

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 02:53 PM

Like I said the public is showing them way too much respect. At the current lines the public is 45% on the nats. I think people see the line and sense a trap. I know its not a trap the nats suck!

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 03:03 PM

Ive got 29% on Nats (bet tracker)

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Ive got 29% on Nats (bet tracker)

Yeah vegasinsider has 20% on the nats.

Oops I went by sbrlines I guess they're not so accurate.

LT Profits · 07-09-09, 03:09 PM

sbrlines uses 5 dimes only.

dreamjob · 07-09-09, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

sbrlines uses 5 dimes only.

Ah i see.

LT Profits · 07-09-09, 03:12 PM

Oh and keep in mind that this is a four-game series, so it is entirely possible for the Nats to win the three-game "series" and for the Astros to win the fourth game Sunday, which would not count toward bet.

stats13 · 07-09-09, 03:15 PM

by your logic the nats would never win a series on the road ever this season, right? cuz they're always going to ahve the worse pitching matchup.

crazy shit happens in sports, count on it happening

Rich Boy · 07-09-09, 03:18 PM

There is no way the Nats are getting respect from the public. Watch one Nats game and you will see how pathetic this team is.

watertight · 07-09-09, 04:16 PM

lannan is hot in his last 6 going 4-0, 2.40 era, i have no problem betting against ortiz in this matchup.

trumpdown · 07-09-09, 04:24 PM

What if you are the "public" and the minority "sharps" are on WASH

Could this be possible

curious · 07-09-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by watertight

lannan is hot in his last 6 going 4-0, 2.40 era, i have no problem betting against ortiz in this matchup.

I'm on the Gnats today for that very reason. Any pitcher that can go 4-0 with the Gnats ridiculous lineup behind him has done something impressive.

trumpdown · 07-09-09, 04:25 PM

Anyway if I take WASH I'll take them first 5 only

Too many BP blow-outs.

fifawcs · 07-09-09, 05:10 PM

The Nats may surprise a lot of you in this series. Lannan and Olsen have been pitching deeper into games lately. This gives the Nats a larger advantage since their bullpen, which has lost a whopping 29 games this season, will not need be used as much. OPS-wise, the Nationals have a better offense than the Astros this season. The Astros have the defensive advantage, but it's safe to say that Zimmerman is a better 3b than Blum/Keppinger. Nats could win this series with Lannan and Olsen pitching.