Bases loaded 1 out and they couldn't get it done... Siiiiiiighhhh lol.
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Wells is a BUMComment -
and now we have a delay...great....and what the hell is richard doing doing again today...damn it... and yankees game is a slugfest too...Comment -
Now I see why the Stl/mil game was a pick em.. They knew parra was gonna come back dealing..sneaky bastards.. Under was the playComment -
Yeah definitely. His triple A numbers were good and its clear now that he is back in full form and as was pointed out, the Cards can't hit lefties (28th in the majors or something ridiculous like that).
And seriously piss on the Jays, even if they pull the comeback.
This is why I hate this team. The heart of their order always has the most LOB. Millar 6, Wells 5, Lind 2, Hill 2 ...
The guys that are paid to produce do not produce. Wells needs to go. Jays need to go out and get a bonified DH. Ibanez would have been nice. He actually connects with the ball.Comment -
yanks got the job done in the early game
As for the night cappers i got
Rockies RL
Padres RL
Seattle RL
Call me crazy but i got a good fealing about this later fellow degenerates wont be back till 10 eastern time Peace!1Comment -
More winners coming in...NYY and STL....
Yankees win!!!!
Cardinals win!!!!
OH MY GAWD, I am 3-0 today so far. WOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOComment -
Arizona
LA DodgersComment -
thur-
(3x) cards -120 (A3)
(3x) bluejays -140 - halladay has had 2 starts under his belt since coming off the DL and pitched a better game then the boxscore would indicate at yankee stadium (damons hr went about 300 feet into the 1st row out in right). i feel hes set for a peak effort vs a team that just beat him on 6/29 and the jays are coming off a loss on wed night to tb. doc turns the tables and gets revenge vs the struggling price (9.01/2.00 last 3).
(1x) padres +1.5/+110 (A1, A2)Comment -
you have to love the micro managing of cito gaston today. how the hell do you bat kevin millar 4th? just b/c a lefty was pitching, there was no way this guy should be hitting in front of rios and wells (both righties). price is a 5-6 inn pitcher at best right now with all of his high pitch counts. there was a very high probability that this game would come down to the bullpens, in which case having millar 4th made no sense as tb would just counter with a righty. sure enough in a big spot in the 7th (bases loaded 1 out) millar pops out when all he needed was a sac fly to tie the game. horrible coaching imo.Comment -
you know, i had the nationals in that game they finished up today. i don't remember why, it was probably due to some shitty homemade method i was using that has been scrapped, but still, it would be nice if i could have won the bet.Comment -
as for today
rays W
white sox L
rockies
dodgers
astros
giants (someone kill me now, this probably wasn't worth it)
mariners
and i just added the d'backs. seems to be pretty good movement, what the hey.Comment -
Are we in an episode of the twilight zone?
Okay, so for a few weeks I have been struggling. Well, for me 50-50 is struggling. And if you know me you know I use sophisticated methods to cap games. So, today I come up with the stupidest "system" I ever heard of.
Look at the streak for each team. Then see what their Win-Loss and $For/$Against is for that number of games won/lost when they play the next time. In other words how goes Team X do on the next game after losing 3 straight? Then matchup the teams and take the one with the best record for that streak. That's it.
STUPID
And today so far it is 3-1 with 3 games underway that all look like they will cash.
Is this an episode of the twilight zone?
So, a stupid capping method works better than my serious capping methods. LOL
Someone shoot me.
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curious, i know you're more of a numbers guy, and this is my first season betting baseball and i'm more of an idiot, so we are on very different pages. but baseball is the only sport i know of where the teams play every single day almost. it just seems as though it will lend to a degree of ebb and flow that you have to harness in order to legitimately beat it, moreso than other sports, at least, where they have more time to go back to the drawing board in between games. i bet if you started with this "stupid" streak method to get a bit of a grasp on the more inexplicable human side of the game that's unique to this one sport, then applied a more sophisticated filter or two on top of it, you can probably come out with some crazy good plays here and there that are worth unloading next month's child support on. but you probably already know all that, i just wanted to let you know that i don't think using that method is as stupid as it seems, especially for baseball.Comment -
I got a method thats been completely on fire for about 2 weeks, and I'm gonna stick with it. Bet the favorites, stick to mostly betting on home teams, bet on teams that are due for a win, bet against teams that are due for a loss. So the system in my head says bet heavy on the Minnesota Twins moneyline tommorrow.Okay, so for a few weeks I have been struggling. Well, for me 50-50 is struggling. And if you know me you know I use sophisticated methods to cap games. So, today I come up with the stupidest "system" I ever heard of.
Look at the streak for each team. Then see what their Win-Loss and $For/$Against is for that number of games won/lost when they play the next time. In other words how goes Team X do on the next game after losing 3 straight? Then matchup the teams and take the one with the best record for that streak. That's it.
STUPID
And today so far it is 3-1 with 3 games underway that all look like they will cash.
Is this an episode of the twilight zone?
So, a stupid capping method works better than my serious capping methods. LOL
Someone shoot me.
I'm like 16-1 or 17-1 since Sunday, which checking my post history will back up. So this may be considered a stupid method, but it works.
BTW, only bet tonight was Red Sox/Giants ML parlay.Comment -
07/09/2009 17:17:15
2 Play Parlay: Wagered $1000 to win $1055.56 Unsettled BA 21 7/9 KANSAS CITY: L HOCHEVAR AT BOSTON: B PENNY BOSTON: B PENNY (-200) BN 13 7/9 SAN DIEGO: J GEER AT SAN FRANCISCO: T LINCECUM SAN FRANCISCO: T LINCECUM (-270)Comment -
What makes a team due for a win? Being 0-1, 0-3, 0-10?I got a method thats been completely on fire for about 2 weeks, and I'm gonna stick with it. Bet the favorites, stick to mostly betting on home teams, bet on teams that are due for a win, bet against teams that are due for a loss. So the system in my head says bet heavy on the Minnesota Twins moneyline tommorrow. I'm like 16-1 or 17-1 since Sunday, which checking my post history will back up. So this may be considered a stupid method, but it works.
BTW, only bet tonight was Red Sox/Giants ML parlay.
And what makes a team being due for a loss? 1-0, 3-0? 5-0?
I don't need to look at your post history, i know you wouldn't make this up.Comment -
Did you see my who's hot / who's cold system in NBA this past NBA season? KILLED the books. Tried it in MLB and it was a disaster.
Then I tried runs scored / runs allowed last few games. Another disaster.
Then I tried record in the same home/away, line range situation. Another disaster.
I have another system I used the last two MLB seasons that was on fire. Another disaster.
I understand what you are saying and I thought it might have merit which is why I am trying it. It is just kind of weird that it is working so wonderfully right out of the gate. And compared with what was going on with me - TWILIGHT ZONE.
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Fri 7/9-
(10x) under dbacks 8 (A5)
(2x) marlins +130 - nolasco has a 2.12/.77 career vs arz (fla is 4-0 in those games) and haren a 4.19/1.35 career vs fla (dbacks are 0-3 in those games)
(1x) cards -130 - carpenter has a whip of 1.15 last 3 (career 2.93/1.13 vs chi) and harden a 1.88.
(3x) over mets (A4)
(1x) astros -1.5/+120 - oswalt has a .73 whip last 3 (career 2.48/.86 vs wash)
(2x) rockies -150 - lowe has a whip of 2.44 last 3 - jiminez 1.13
(1x) tigers -150 - jackson has a 1.13 whip last 3 - lee a 1.93
(2x) over bluejays 10 - cecil has a whip of 2.56 last 3 - berken a 1.71
(1x) royals +1.5/+100 (A1)
(2x) over yanks 9.5 - joba has a whip of 1.89 last 3 - saunders 1.73
**Its an action night for me as I'll be in my companies luxury box at citifield. regardless, i was going huge on the dbacks/marlins under as ive been eyeing that matchup all week. that total will drop to 7.5 by first pitch.Comment -
Well, like the Twins were just swept at home (which rarely ever happens) by the Yankees, and the White Sox have been playing pretty well. Twins are too good to lose 4 in a row at home and they send Blackburn, argubly their best and most consistant pitcher to the mound tommorrow night. And on top of that the Twins always do well against the White Sox in the dome. Thats how I come to my pick of betting heavy on the Twins Moneyline tommorrow night. Its a combination of the fact for the most part that I don't see the Twins losing 4 in a row at home along with Blackburn pitching.
It was the same type of system I had when I bet heavy on Boston last Sunday against Seattle. I couldn't see Seattle sweeping the Red Sox in Boston. Seattle won the first two games, so I bet heavy on the Red Sox on Sunday.
Of course the pitching matchup has something to do with this too. And most series are 3 games and one team rarely sweeps a series so that makes it easier too. If a home team loses the first 2 games of a series, most times I will bet on the home team in the 3rd and final game.
This whole system may be crazy as shit and hard to understand but it works.
As I said earlier, I very rarely bet on the underdog, mostly bet home teams, bet on teams that are due for a win, bet against teams that are due for a loss, don't make prop bets, and tend to stay away from betting the over/unders. I usually only end up betting anywhere from 2-5 teams a day, and generally make a small parlay as well.
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Okay, so for a few weeks I have been struggling. Well, for me 50-50 is struggling. And if you know me you know I use sophisticated methods to cap games. So, today I come up with the stupidest "system" I ever heard of.
Look at the streak for each team. Then see what their Win-Loss and $For/$Against is for that number of games won/lost when they play the next time. In other words how goes Team X do on the next game after losing 3 straight? Then matchup the teams and take the one with the best record for that streak. That's it.
STUPID
And today so far it is 3-1 with 3 games underway that all look like they will cash.
Is this an episode of the twilight zone?
So, a stupid capping method works better than my serious capping methods. LOL
Someone shoot me.
LOL!!! Wow......well call me stupid, but that is pretty close to the Bling Bling System I utilized in the past that was pretty successful.Comment -
Look bro.....how many times do I have to preach discipline to you????
I mean tonight I just played ONE PLAY....the Dodgers.
and then another play Sparks + 4.5.
and another play Rodmonivich has pancakes for breakfast + 400
and another play Barometric Pressure is OVER the avg for tomorrow.... -185.
Discipline bro.....DISCIPLINE!!!!Comment -
lolComment -
hanson tagged by stewart
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oh i did see it. i must say, honestly, that the hot/cold method is way, way simpler than this streak method, though. i think the difference in the streak method is that it takes into account more than the last few games and you're capturing more of the ebb and flow of the baseball season up to that point. true, there will be glitches, like the rockies when they got hot threw a lot of people's systems off, and the d'backs are doing the same thing as well right now, if i had to guess. but whatever, you obviously can't win them all.
plus, this is reminiscent of the bling bling system that lemon has teased us with for months but hasn't made any official plays that i've seen in mlb this year. if you and lemon developed your own system together i think it would be the duty of every single poster at sbr to blindly tail whatever plays you two select. even the guys who only post in players talk.Comment -
Welp.. Hope the Marlins can win.. It'll net me $600..Comment -
5-0 Snakes. Lets watch the Fish pack it in now.Comment -
6-0 Snakes. Pretty sure you can take Miller out now..Comment -
why not just stick with systems that have done well for you in past years? baseball is a loooong season, and you may be jumping ship at the time when your systems should revert back to the mean.Okay, so for a few weeks I have been struggling. Well, for me 50-50 is struggling. And if you know me you know I use sophisticated methods to cap games. So, today I come up with the stupidest "system" I ever heard of.
Look at the streak for each team. Then see what their Win-Loss and $For/$Against is for that number of games won/lost when they play the next time. In other words how goes Team X do on the next game after losing 3 straight? Then matchup the teams and take the one with the best record for that streak. That's it.
STUPID
And today so far it is 3-1 with 3 games underway that all look like they will cash.
Is this an episode of the twilight zone?
So, a stupid capping method works better than my serious capping methods. LOL
Someone shoot me.
also, give me an example of one of these "stupid" system plays you made. i think i tried this years ago, but wanna make sure its the same criteria.Comment
