MLB - Sunday, 9/2/18

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Sides Sunday

Tigers +215 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 +105 (Heritage)
Reds +145 (5 Dimes)
Mariners +124 (5 Dimes)
Padres +127 (Heritage)


YTD: 381-401-16, +10.86

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Sunday

6 MLB Plays Sunday

Tigers +215 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 +105 (Heritage)
Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Reds +145 (5 Dimes)
Mariners +124 (5 Dimes)
Padres +127 (Heritage)

[2Shirts]

Bet enough dogs a few eventually will hit.

Dogs tomorrow too?

[veriableodds]

looks like a dog day

[unde0087]

Tough card today, don't really like anything. Mariners is tempting but haven't been able to pull the trigger. GL today LT

[LT Profits]

Bet enough dogs a few eventually will hit.

Dogs tomorrow too?

I don't bet dogs for the sake of betting dogs, I bet whatever the value is per the model. Can't comment on tomorrow until tomorrow.

[doitnow]

sny value on balty today? Sounds look like an oxymoron

[LT Profits]

sny value on balty today? Sounds look like an oxymoron

Actually model likes KC at 54% (-117).

[MinnesotaFats]

Roaring back!!!

Way to go LT

[veriableodds]

I don't bet dogs for the sake of betting dogs, I bet whatever the value is per the model. Can't comment on tomorrow until tomorrow.

on the contrary worst teams hit 43% wins best 57%-not even 60% take all lines out that payout less than +120 and you have great volume system. now total betting , would not even touch a total unless their was a 1.5 run+ advantage. Your allowing for to little of variance and warranting it a wager @ anything less than 120+ line your giving yourself a headache.
todays card model for totals play

1:35 PM	Cubs	Jon Lester	+135	+127	+133	o8½ +112	33.7%	2.55	6.10
Phillies	Aaron Nola	-145	-147	-143	u8½ -122	66.3%	3.54

3:05 PM	Twins	Gabriel Moya	-111	-108	-112	o12 -105	47.8%	4.47	9.14
Rangers	Yohander Mendez	+101	-112	+102	u12 -105	52.2%	4.67

4:10 PM	D-backs	Clay Buchholz	+155	+150	+162	o7½ -112	49.2%	2.90	5.86
Dodgers	Walker Buehler	-165	-175	-172	u7½ +102	50.8%	2.95

when playing these if line lands on the .5 either buy opposite for a + payout or up for a slightly more advantage but still not bad juice

[LT Profits]

on the contrary worst teams hit 43% wins best 57%-not even 60% take all lines out that payout less than +120 and you have great volume system. now total betting , would not even touch a total unless their was a 1.5 run+ advantage. Your allowing for to little of variance and warranting it a wager @ anything less than 120+ line your giving yourself a headache.
todays card model for totals play

1:35 PM	Cubs	Jon Lester	+135	+127	+133	o8½ +112	33.7%	2.55	6.10
Phillies	Aaron Nola	-145	-147	-143	u8½ -122	66.3%	3.54

3:05 PM	Twins	Gabriel Moya	-111	-108	-112	o12 -105	47.8%	4.47	9.14
Rangers	Yohander Mendez	+101	-112	+102	u12 -105	52.2%	4.67

4:10 PM	D-backs	Clay Buchholz	+155	+150	+162	o7½ -112	49.2%	2.90	5.86
Dodgers	Walker Buehler	-165	-175	-172	u7½ +102	50.8%	2.95

when playing these if line lands on the .5 either buy opposite for a + payout or up for a slightly more advantage but still not bad juice

If you are suggesting blindly betting all underdogs greater than +120, that is a terrible idea. If only it were that simple.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Tigers +215 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 +105 (Heritage)
Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Reds +145 (5 Dimes)
Mariners +124 (5 Dimes)
Padres +127 (Heritage)
Pirates +134 (Heritage)

[snider]

What do you on Boston/Chicago

[44 Mag]

I don't bet dogs for the sake of betting dogs, I bet whatever the value is per the model. Can't comment on tomorrow until tomorrow.

But you wager on second games of a double header, before the first one is even played???? How do you know some star player might be rested or get hurt???? The only tghing bailing you out of that is a pitchung change.

[LT Profits]

But you wager on second games of a double header, before the first one is even played???? How do you know some star player might be rested or get hurt???? The only tghing bailing you out of that is a pitchung change.

I have Default lineups for every team, so if lines are out for Game #2, it is not an issue.

[qtip0711]

Backing the M's at +128 price this afternoon

[veriableodds]

Seriously it is that simple my lord how nieve, blind are you just look at leauge trends or mlb.com and look average the bottom 5 teams win%.
Lets look at your picks detroit 20-48 on road one of the worst road records?why the pick? bottom of barrel by far absolute no value..

[snider]

snubbed by the boss? Dont let these fellas get ya off track, LT. Thanks. That line moved 15 cents since i asked ya.

[chaka]

Seriously it is that simple my lord how nieve, blind are you just look at leauge trends or mlb.com and look average the bottom 5 teams win%.
Lets look at your picks detroit 20-48 on road one of the worst road records?why the pick? bottom of barrel by far absolute no value..

actually there were all kinds of reasons to look at detroit today
boone suspended
no judge/no didi/no stanton
mccutcheon 2nd game with team batting leadoff despite struggling all season/sanchez only 2nd game back/no chapman/ new Shortstop = need time to gel no chemistry


yanks home w-l record is 67% but line to back ny was -245 way over break even especially when this is a shell of the team that won most of those games -patchwork effort plugging holes- and with lynn on the mound who has been terrible past few starts

detroit won Game 1 of series games 2 & 3 could've gone either way



always a ton of factors to consider- comes down to how much time one wants to spend to break a single game down but glancing at year to date records will keep you from finding value

[TheLock]

I want to go Mariners too. Oakland like is so trappy.

[veriableodds]

CHAKA- Detroit is a great play @ +225 or whatever the line is. +120 lines or higher is a volume system and should be separate and tracked with no other angled plays or system. Was really just trying to point out it works , but if the guy thinks nit picking under +120 and some over +120 lines will get anywhere based on bias info well just based off general trends alone will yield a loosing proposition long term

[2daBank]

Seriously it is that simple my lord how nieve, blind are you just look at leauge trends or mlb.com and look average the bottom 5 teams win%.
Lets look at your picks detroit 20-48 on road one of the worst road records?why the pick? bottom of barrel by far absolute no value..

Getting better than 2 to 1 vs lance lynn has a ton of value. If you think lance lynn pitching in a bandbox -265 presents value against a little league club you should find a new hobby kid.

[kingdom]

actually there were all kinds of reasons to look at detroit today
boone suspended
no judge/no didi/no stanton
mccutcheon 2nd game with team batting leadoff despite struggling all season/sanchez only 2nd game back/no chapman/ new Shortstop = need time to gel no chemistry


yanks home w-l record is 67% but line to back ny was -245 way over break even especially when this is a shell of the team that won most of those games -patchwork effort plugging holes- and with lynn on the mound who has been terrible past few starts

detroit won Game 1 of series games 2 & 3 could've gone either way



always a ton of factors to consider- comes down to how much time one wants to spend to break a single game down but glancing at year to date records will keep you from finding value

good analysis. everyone finds value in a different way.

[veriableodds]

You bet with math and make math work for you, as soon as you try and beat math and tweaking math that's when trouble starts.

When I bet bases I play dogs dogs and more dogs, some totals, and the occasional home team not many at all stars don't align that much

[LT Profits]

Seriously it is that simple my lord how nieve, blind are you just look at leauge trends or mlb.com and look average the bottom 5 teams win%.
Lets look at your picks detroit 20-48 on road one of the worst road records?why the pick? bottom of barrel by far absolute no value..

If you blindly bet every dog greater than +120, you would be down a shitload of money, unless I am misinterpreting what you are saying?

As for why the Tigers, simple: I have Boyd rated better than Lynn and ended up with Yankees "only" 65% (-186).

[sheedy17]

Awesome call on the Tigers, Didn't have the b@lls myself to pull that off.

BOL n