Mr. Crumbs Leans for Sunday 6/14/09

cocknocker · 06-14-09, 09:15 AM

Now as far as what I look for in a game, the Pale Hose have all of the qualifications except their bullpen is carrying a WHIP of 3.000 over their last 3 games and I can't do that. The Dodgers also have what I look for but the vigorish is too high on the rod for me to take them. The Angels have the ingredients but once again the vig is too high. So I had to get them off of the list. The Phillies remain a good wager today, and in my opinion they should actually be favored in that game. After I looked back again on my sheet, I decided to take them. They are a little behind in the slugging% over the last 3 games .444 to .393, but I think that Happ won't have an early melt down such as Bastardo had yesterday, killing my ticket before I got my beer opened.

jellobiafra · 06-14-09, 09:19 AM

I didn't think you were gonna make a thread today brother, but of course I will defer to you...

I'll just paste my original post over here:

FLA +105

Johnson is a much better pitcher than Tallet and FLA owns TOR. False favorite, imo.

CWS +111

Brew Crew has struggled vs lefties lately and there aren't many better than Buerhle. I'll take the better starting pitcher (vs Looper) getting + odds every single time it's offered (see above).

CIN -116

Joey Cueto is the shit. Simple as that. I don't think the Reds get swept by what's turning out to be an average Royals squad. And I definitely don't think they get swept with Cueto on the mound vs Bannister.

Good luck everybody!

Also added ATL -121 (even though I could have had it at -115 5 minutes later

) and UNC +135

cocknocker · 06-14-09, 09:26 AM

Oh my bad, jello. I didn't look first to see if one had been established.

Jello, just a heads up:

Atlanta's bullpen is a little horrid these days giving up 2.535 WHIP over ther last 3 games just so you'll know. The Pale Hose (one of my teams) have a league worst bullpen WHIP of 3.000 over their last 3 games as well. The Pales bats are in order and so are the Braves. May want to switch up to taking those teams for the 1st half to avoid what has been happening to me late in games recently

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 09:28 AM

I got a boatlaod of plays today.... Let's make money today fellas
Here are my 1 o clock plays:

Booked:

Atlanta -120
Atlanta -1.5 +135

Philadelphia +113
Philadelphia -1.5 +240

NY Yankees -122
NY Yankees -1.5 +170

Toronto -115
Toronto -1.5 +170

GL...more games to follow...LOL

jellobiafra · 06-14-09, 09:34 AM

Thanks for the heads up CK, but I already booked them man. I know ATL's bullpen is a rollercoaster ride. That's my team and I follow them pretty closely. The main culprit over the past few days has been Moylan. I don't think he'll pitch today. Besides, Lowe is a horse and if he's on he'll go deep and get it to Gonzalez and then Soriano (or vise versa depending on how Bobby feels today). I'll take my chances with that back end. If Lowe's not on then this is probably a losing wager regardless... 1st 5 inning or otherwise.

Good luck today. Oh and thanks again for the free money yesterday. I'll be looking for another handout later.

macadams · 06-14-09, 09:38 AM

LOL, me and Jello had a lemonade concession thread, before Starbucks moved into our neighbourhood I posted:

Since ATL plays at Turner field where fly balls come to die, I have put more stock in their rd numbers than the totals. When you do that, their numbers start to look a little better, with five players 900+ OPS. Lowe is a better pitcher than Kawakami, and he also knows the park from having pitched there as a member of the Boston Red Sox (he usually did well there: .271 BA against and 1 HR surrendered in 16 games and 177 AB with a 2.76 ERA). He was there recently enough for him to realize he gots to go to his GB inducing stuff, can't pitch at Camden the way you would at Turner, but Lowe has proven in his career he can get the grounder. On the other hand it's sufficiently long ago that the likes of Markakis, Jones, Reimold and of course Weiters haven't seen him. Lowe off to a solid start and the team gets up for him too, seven wins so far.
Bergesen has ok numbers, but he is still a rookie. So far, Bergesen has relied on timely strikeouts, but the Braves strike out well below league average. His reputation is so far also being built largely on night games, in the admittedly small sample size of a meagre three games daytime (v. Texas, Toronto and the Nationals) and seven at night the differences are there: BA .348/.254, and slugging: .609/.358.
I was on the O's yesterday because I thought they would have a pitching advantage, today I go the other way for the same reason.
This could be a tight one though, because ATL is susceptible to stink stretches offensively. ATL with a small edge in close games too. ATL 4-1 in interleague and usually do well at Camden.
Booked: Two units on ATL @ 1.86.
I like the Cueto bet, and you also got Johan in the Bronx @ + $. Mets will be playing with the mentality of a team going for the sweep, even though that one game slipped from them behind the E.
I just don't see it turning around for A.J today, isn't he just being exposed as a guy who pitched real well for a not-so-great team? Leveraged situations don't seem to agree with him, or am I just perceiving this because of the "+" in the ML?

Booked 1 unit on the Mets @ 2.12
________________________________________ __ _
June record: -1.68 units

jellobiafra · 06-14-09, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by macadams

LOL, me and Jello had a lemonade concession thread, before Starbucks moved into our neighbourhood

bradleysnyder · 06-14-09, 09:50 AM

any one who bets the mets
today is INSANE.............

cocknocker · 06-14-09, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by bradleysnyder

any one who bets the mets
today is INSANE.............

Thank you for your comments, but on this thread you have to explain WHY and be sincere about it.

melincrea · 06-14-09, 10:11 AM

Jays 2u (-115) [although it's only 2u, I really hope they can win this game as I always tend to have bets on the Jays when they are losing.. I faded them vs. Texas and they win.. just my luck..! this is more or less a chase pick right now]
Cardinals 3u (+100)
Braves 1u (-115)
Red Sox 1u (-125)
Mets 1u (+110)

Orl -1.5 1st half 2u (-110)
Orl ML 2u (-145)
ORL/LAL O198 2u (-105)

RoagBettor · 06-14-09, 10:17 AM

I like Florida again today; until the Jays can prove they can beat them there's no sense bucking the trend.

I also like the Mets 1H today. I think Santana will bounce back, the Yankee bats are cold.

Gotta go with these hot teams also:

Colorado
Tampa Bay
Boston

thegenix · 06-14-09, 10:32 AM

CK do you not like taking 1H? If the WSox are a good bet based on everything except bullpen ERA, wouldn't 1H be the bet to take here?

macadams · 06-14-09, 10:34 AM

Anyone with thoughts on the Cubs, I watched that whole game yesterday and they looked absolutely anemic to say the least.

Rixsaw · 06-14-09, 10:44 AM

While the Phillies have all the ingredient to beat the BoSox in this series, BoSox are just too hot to go against. Once again, I'm leaving this game alone. Lets hope Happ can hold off the BoSox long enough for Phillies to go up a few runs. Otherwise, the bullpen will not likely be able to hold off them off. Good luck all.

I'm liking the under in this game.

obamaismyuncle · 06-14-09, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by macadams

Anyone with thoughts on the Cubs, I watched that whole game yesterday and they looked absolutely anemic to say the least.

Staying away from this game but if I was betting it I would take the Twins and the OVER!

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by obamaismyuncle

Staying away from this game but if I was betting it I would take the Twins and the OVER!

Me too.... Twins came thiiiissss close to being a play for me, but I got off it... Good Luck

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:13 AM

Added:

White Sox +113
White Sox -1.5 +175

Cincinnati -125
Cincinnati -1.5 +130

GLA!

ram1502 · 06-14-09, 11:17 AM

CK, Do you pay much attention to betting on/against a team who is going for/trying to avoid a sweep in the last game for the series? There seems to be a lot of these games today. I know somebody said something about this angle a while back, but I don't remember the stat or likelihood. Thanks in advance.

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by ram1502

CK, Do you pay much attention to betting on/against a team who is going for/trying to avoid a sweep in the last game for the series? There seems to be a lot of these games today. I know somebody said something about this angle a while back, but I don't remember the stat or likelihood. Thanks in advance.

In general, when teams are in normal league play, there are more sweeps than not when a team gets a 2-0 advantage in a 3 game series... but in interleague it is more difficult for a team to sweep another team... i charted the last interleague series a few weeks ago and teams playing to avoid the sweep were like 7-3 or 6-4... i can't remember right now... you could quickly look it up tho at vegasinsider....Good Luck

jellobiafra · 06-14-09, 11:27 AM

That ATL line is -110 now on BetJam. CWS is up to +122. The CIN line has moved a little in my favor, but still...

I need to learn to be patient and work the numbers better. That'll be the next step in my evolution as a gambler.

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:29 AM

to expand a little, when a home team is up 2-0 in normal league play they are much stronger play to sweep than when the road team is attempting to sweep(makes sense right).... Remember these trends are over long periods of time, and you have the vigorish factor so tread lightly if playing blindly... bst to pick and choose... using this trend just as one of your factors in handicapping a game...good luck

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

That ATL line is -110 now on BetJam. CWS is up to +122. The CIN line has moved a little in my favor, but still...

I need to learn to be patient and work the numbers better. That'll be the next step in my evolution as a gambler.

I'm with ya bro on every one of those games!

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

That ATL line is -110 now on BetJam. CWS is up to +122. The CIN line has moved a little in my favor, but still...

I need to learn to be patient and work the numbers better. That'll be the next step in my evolution as a gambler.

Jello... uh oh.... you and i are not going to beat the closing number!!! How can we possibly win now!?! LOL... I saw your discussion yesterday with whats his name on another thread! LOL

jellobiafra · 06-14-09, 11:38 AM

Yeah Jimbo it's not that big a deal to me (especially at the stakes I'm playing) but there is something to be said for beating the number over the long run. Too many sharp bettors agree on this as a fact of life. Again, I'm not sweating it on 2 or 3 plays today and it doesn't change my confidence in the picks as winners at all. But over the long run you're better off beating the closing number than not.

I still believe in handicapping though. Some of those guys are just failures at it so they don't think it's possible to be successful. Talk about ego issues...

hockeytown71 · 06-14-09, 11:43 AM

I wil be tailing CK as usual on all his plays as well as:

LA -130 Billingsley (pitching matchup in general) is worth the vig IMO.
LA -135 1st 5 Innings
Mets - EVEN 1st 5 innings (Come on, it is Santana here)
NY/NY Under 9 -120 Once again, Sanatan and I don't feel he gets the run support (Santana/Burnett)today
NY/NY Under 5 1st 5 innings EVEN - Don't allow the Pens to F' me
Atl 1st 5 Innings -120 I really like Lowe
Parlay TB/LAA - Juice is very high. Pays just over EVEN money. May look at RL also

The reasoning is short but sweet. I'm on very little sleep... So if I'm missing anything, please share with me. I'm always open to suggestions. Thanks in advance and GOOD LUCK!!!

Jimbo42 · 06-14-09, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Yeah Jimbo it's not that big a deal to me (especially at the stakes I'm playing) but there is something to be said for beating the number over the long run. Too many sharp bettors agree on this as a fact of life. Again, I'm not sweating it on 2 or 3 plays today and it doesn't change my confidence in the picks as winners at all. But over the long run you're better off beating the closing number than not.

I still believe in handicapping though. Some of those guys are just failures at it so they don't think it's possible to be successful. Talk about ego issues...

Agree 100% on everything you just said brother!

macadams · 06-14-09, 11:57 AM

Added: 1u Cincy @ 1.86. I forget who on here had that line, but "betto on Cueto or you shall regretto". You've got to think they've bottomed out. KC not hitting worth sh*t either so pitching should decide this one.

overdose.fR · 06-14-09, 11:59 AM

unless i am mistaken there is a rlm on metz

ram1502 · 06-14-09, 12:08 PM

I almost played the Reds today, because Cueto is "the shit" as jello said. But I got to digging around a little and it is KC with the huge advantage in hitting. The Reds are hitting just .154 against righties in their last 5 with a terrible slugging % of just .274, while the Royals are hitting .300 against righties in their last 5 with a sultry slugging % of .486. The Reds have every statistical pitching advantage while the Royals have every statistical hitting advantage. There was no way to decide which one would take precedence in this game, so I chose to lay off. Good luck to all Reds backers however, as I will be rooting for you.

As an aside...K-Rod and one of the Yankees bullpen pitchers got into it before the game today, so look for the Mets to jump all over the Yankees. The Mets already have all the juices flowing, lol.

ram1502 · 06-14-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by overdose.fR

unless i am mistaken there is a rlm on metz

I saw RLM for the Yankees...with about 55% on the Mets, the line had gone from Yankees -115 to Yankees -118 or so. This is probably a direct product of the Yankees being a very popular team. That being said, I still played the Mets. Good luck all.

overdose.fR · 06-14-09, 12:14 PM

i really need to get things clear about the rlm: if, let's say, team A, there are 70% of bettors and on team B the rest of 30% and for the team B the line is going up, this is a rlm for the team B or against it?

peterpan19 · 06-14-09, 12:20 PM

over
yes for team B...play would be on team B most of the time...

ram1502 · 06-14-09, 12:24 PM

Well....in this case the Mets line went up because they were underdogs. It's not as easy to see in baseball as it is in football or basketball where there is a point spread. Today, I saw Yankees opened at -115, Mets at +105. About an hour ago, the lines was Yankees -118, Mets +108, but there were 55% of the betting public on the Mets ML. In this case, the line for the Mets went up, when it should go down because they were underdogs (like going from +105 to +100 or so). With less than half of the bets being placed on the Yankees ML, their line went from -115 to -118, which means there is alot of money on the Yankees today, but that's the case everyday the Yankees play which is why I ignored this RLM altogether. If the Mets get 7 out of Johan today, I like their chances to get to Burnett and rough up the Yankees bullpen today. Good luck to you overdose.

Rixsaw · 06-14-09, 12:31 PM

ram...I think you may be over analyzed this game a bit. I would take J.Santana +vig going against any team and anywhere. Furthermore, the Mets are batting better than the Yanks right now. My only worry is the Mets bullpen. But CK already did that homework for us.

BIG FISH up 3-0....Yeah baby.