MLB - Tuesday, 6/20/17

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Side Tuesday

Pirates +105 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 267-284-15, -6.61

Totals Coming

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Tuesday

2 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +105 (Bookmaker)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 8.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Tuesday

Pirates +105 (Bookmaker)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 8.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Mariners UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Giants +104 (Heritage)
Pirates +105 (Bookmaker)
Padres / Cubs UNDER 8.5 +110 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Royals UNDER 8.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / Mariners UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)

[pilebuck13]

What did yah end up getting ml in Minnesota white Sox? Seems like Santana a tad overvalued

[LT Profits]

Note my correction on Cubs Under. I chose Under 8.5 +110 over a juiced Under 9 but accidentally typed Under 9 +110 originally.

[LT Profits]

What did yah end up getting ml in Minnesota white Sox? Seems like Santana a tad overvalued

Yes he does, I get Twins 58% (-138). Thing is Holland is not that good either, these are two of my pending regression pitchers opposing each other.

[Conqueror]

Yes he does, I get Twins 58% (-138). Thing is Holland is not that good either, these are two of my pending regression pitchers opposing each other.

Then OVER should be a good play.

[pilebuck13]

Then OVER should be a good play.

Conquer that's where I'm headed.

[LT Profits]

Then OVER should be a good play.

Conquer that's where I'm headed.

Regression seems to be built into the 9.5 total, I get 9.8

[RavensFan2k3]

Please thoroughly explain to me why Giants here

[LT Profits]

Please thoroughly explain to me why Giants here

There is absolutely no reason why the Giants offense should be as bad as it has looked now that they have all of their regulars back, which suggest I may be on them quite a bit until they go into seller's mode. On paper at least, they have the far superior L/R splits here, although you would not know it looking at only this season. Model has San Francisco 53% (-113).

[RavensFan2k3]

There is absolutely no reason why the Giants offense should be as bad as it has looked now that they have all of their regulars back, which suggest I may be on them quite a bit until they go into seller's mode. On paper at least, they have the far superior L/R splits here, although you would not know it looking at only this season. Model has San Francisco 53% (-113).

Ok you mentioned alot about offense, but what about Matt Moore and Teheran?

[44 Mag]

Yes he does, I get Twins 58% (-138). Thing is Holland is not that good either, these are two of my pending regression pitchers opposing each other.

Every pitcher YOU don't like is regressing???? Then you use xFIP etc. numbers that nobody understands. LOL. I even went on Sabermetrics on pitchers and THEY don't have them, never mind rate pitchers by them. What about when you predict guys to be an Ace, like Nola, Aka LOLA. This guy gets hammered, and I noticed you don't take him much, not that anybody should. The standard for pitchers is good enough for me, never mind all this made up bullshit.

[LT Profits]

Ok you mentioned alot about offense, but what about Matt Moore and Teheran?

Not enough separation to swing Braves to favorites. Yes, Teheran grades out 8% better for me (Teheran slightly below average, Moore 8% more below average), but that gets offset by Giants grading out much better vs. righties offensively and Braves grading out worse vs. lefties, around a 13% edge in batting splits.

[LT Profits]

Every pitcher YOU don't like is regressing???? Then you use xFIP etc. numbers that nobody understands. LOL. I even went on Sabermetrics on pitchers and THEY don't have them, never mind rate pitchers by them. What about when you predict guys to be an Ace, like Nola, Aka LOLA. This guy gets hammered, and I noticed you don't take him much, not that anybody should. The standard for pitchers is good enough for me, never mind all this made up bullshit.

You are 100% off here, pitchers tend to regress to their sabermetric numbers, not the other way around. And I love xFIP because it incorporates the most important stats my model uses, namely K/BB and flyballs/groundballs. Those stats have much less to do with luck than common stats like ERA and WHIP.

[RavensFan2k3]

I guess agree to disagree. Goodluck LT

[44 Mag]

You are 100% off here, pitchers tend to regress to their sabermetric numbers, not the other way around. And I love xFIP because it incorporates the most important stats my model uses, namely K/BB and flyballs/groundballs. Those stats have much less to do with luck than common stats like ERA and WHIP.

And I suppose wins & losses, weather, ballparks, revenge, and certain players playing or not playing have nothing to do with it???? Are you kidding me???? The pitcher isn't the only single reason some team wins or loses a game. Is it ?????

[44 Mag]

[QUOTE=LT Profits;27040479]You are 100% off here, pitchers tend to regress to their sabermetric numbers, not the other way around. And I love xFIP because it incorporates the most important stats my model uses, namely K/BB and flyballs/groundballs. Those stats have much less to do with luck than common stats like ERA and WHIP.[/QUOTE]

And by the way, a pitchers ERA & WHIP are Luck ??????? Please, spare us the details of this ridiculous statement, LUCK ??????? I suppose when Kluber won his

[LT Profits]

And I suppose wins & losses, weather, ballparks, revenge, and certain players playing or not playing have nothing to do with it???? Are you kidding me???? The pitcher isn't the only single reason some team wins or loses a game. Is it ?????

Of course not (i.e., you are correct), and my model incorporates pitching, hitting (with adjustable default lineups), defense, ballpark factors and umpires (after Game 1 of series). It is just that pitching (starters and bullpen) counts the most. And model stats are 90% saber based.

[LT Profits]

[QUOTE=44 Mag;27040557]

You are 100% off here, pitchers tend to regress to their sabermetric numbers, not the other way around. And I love xFIP because it incorporates the most important stats my model uses, namely K/BB and flyballs/groundballs. Those stats have much less to do with luck than common stats like ERA and WHIP.[/QUOTE]

And by the way, a pitchers ERA & WHIP are Luck ??????? Please, spare us the details of this ridiculous statement, LUCK ??????? I suppose when Kluber won his

xFIP is FAR superior to ERA and/or WHIP, both of which can be skewed by team defense, favorable./unfavorable ballparks and even little things like the official scorer. Oh and not to mention extremes in BABIP, which the pitcher has no control over.

[MiTzRacEr07]

Anyone playing pirates vs brewers? Or astros vs As? Havent seen much on these ones today. I like the brewers and the astros today. Havent played yet though..

Brewers -122
Astros -102

[LT Profits]

Anyone playing pirates vs brewers? Or astros vs As? Havent seen much on these ones today. I like the brewers and the astros today. Havent played yet though..

Brewers -122
Astros -102

Pirates were first game I played, Post #1. Looks like I got shitty line though.

[juicername]

Davies getting his lit up in Milwaukee.

[RavensFan2k3]

Pirates were first game I played, Post #1. Looks like I got shitty line though.

Who cares, a winner is a winner. Beating the closer doesn't matter.

[chosen4th]

LT- thought u were taking a totals break??

[grey area]

LT- thought u were taking a totals break??

Just needed to pound the first one really

[JayDr3am]

lol so lucky with the giants pick. no way in hell you saw that one coming. holy shit

[stackz125]

LT- thought u were taking a totals break??

He still play them just not laying anymore than -110 juice.

[LT Profits]

LT- thought u were taking a totals break??

I said I would be playing fewer of them due to not laying more than -110 as of now.

[LT Profits]

Another nice night, 7-1-1 to begin the week.

[chosen4th]

Another nice night, 7-1-1 to begin the week.

Nice start to week!