Florida 64% - Dontrelle Willis may not have a lights-out game, but he is pitching solidly and he should have a quality start here. The shakiness of both bullpens benefits Florida, and Florida also should have a small lineup edge as well. All three of these small edges combine to give Florida a strong edge overall.

Cincinnati 56% - Matt Morris has been pitching very well of late, but he is in a tough statistical spot here. He is more likely than usual to have an off night. Furthermore, Cincinnati's bullpen will be in much better shape for this game than San Franciscio's. Bronson Arroyo will be going on 3 days rest, and that is not good for Cincinnati. However, he should be able to give 5 decent innings, and if so, Cincinnati will have a sizable statistical advantage.