MLB - Wednesday, 9/21/16

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 08:40 AM

60%ers:

White Sox 68% (-213)
Mets 63% (-170)
Cleveland 69% (-223)
Washington 66% (-194)
Texas 62% (-163)

Snake24 · 09-21-16, 09:13 AM

LT!!!

Rich Boy · 09-21-16, 09:18 AM

Actually on the OVER myself, why does the model like UNDER in this spot?

These are both over teams and neither Greinke or Perdomo have been very good

readytowinem · 09-21-16, 09:20 AM

"The Model" was missing one word. "The September Model".

There I fixed it for you...lol

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Actually on the OVER myself, why does the model like UNDER in this spot?

These are both over teams and neither Greinke or Perdomo have been very good

Greinke has been fine on the road, his issue has been pitching at Chase Field. He has a 3.31 xFIP on the road (4.55 at home).

Perdomo meanwhile has an OVERALL 3.96 xFIP, greatly out-performing the 5.68 ERA. He has pitched in bad luck with a .354 BABIP allowed.

Runs may be up at Petco this year, but most of the success has come by righty hitters, model still has park factor of 89 (i.e., 11% less than league average) for left-handed batters, which should come into play with two righty pitchers.

And let's not forget that these are two teams that just want to get the season over with, there has not been much offense the first two games of this series.

This is precisely the type of game I would stay away from when it comes to picking a side because anyone can win what is essentially an exhibition game, but it is different with totals where you can use two dead teams facing each other to your advantage.

Rich Boy · 09-21-16, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Greinke has been fine on the road, his issue has been pitching at Chase Field. He has a 3.31 xFIP on the road (4.55 at home).

Perdomo meanwhile has an OVERALL 3.96 xFIP, greatly out-performing the 5.68 ERA. He has pitched in bad luck with a .354 BABIP allowed.

Runs may be up at Petco this year, but most of the success has come by righty hitters, model still has park factor of 89 (i.e., 11% less than league average) for left-handed batters, which should come into play with two righty pitchers.

And let's not forget that these are two teams that just want to get the season over with, there has not been much offense the first two games of this series.

This is precisely the type of game I would stay away from when it comes to picking a side because anyone can win what is essentially an exhibition game, but it is different with totals where you can use two dead teams facing each other to your advantage.

Still like the over here...

Greinke has been terrible home or road. His road ERA is 4.01 and 6.4 over last 3 starts. The guy has given up 12 HR in 74 IP on the road this year, flat out terrible.

Perdomo is also terrible with 4.84 home ERA, giving up 45 Hits and 5 HR in 35 IP at home this year, guys are hitting .314 overall against him.

Im actually on OVER 7 -134 in case of a 3-3 push, I dont see how this stays under

The motivation logic doesn't hold truth, players always want to protect their stats and batting numbers. Doesn't matter what time of year it is guys always take their at bats seriously and pitchers likewise. These guys understand their numbers translate into millions.

clockwise · 09-21-16, 01:10 PM

DAMN LT pulling away!

clockwise · 09-21-16, 01:27 PM

What u got on the Astros LT? thanks!

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 01:40 PM

2 MLB Additions

3 MLB Plays Wednesday

Cardinals / Rockies UNDER 12.5 -105 (Heritage)
Rays +118 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by clockwise

What u got on the Astros LT? thanks!

Houston 58% (-138)

mikeyplata · 09-21-16, 01:41 PM

I was just coming in here to ask you about the ari/col under. Was thinking under too

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Still like the over here...

Greinke has been terrible home or road. His road ERA is 4.01 and 6.4 over last 3 starts. The guy has given up 12 HR in 74 IP on the road this year, flat out terrible.

Perdomo is also terrible with 4.84 home ERA, giving up 45 Hits and 5 HR in 35 IP at home this year, guys are hitting .314 overall against him.

Im actually on OVER 7 -134 in case of a 3-3 push, I dont see how this stays under

The motivation logic doesn't hold truth, players always want to protect their stats and batting numbers. Doesn't matter what time of year it is guys always take their at bats seriously and pitchers likewise. These guys understand their numbers translate into millions.

Stop using ERA to make your arguments, it is meaningless. Also home runs allowed is a component of xFIP (adjusted for park factors) and I have already shown you Grienke's vast home/away disparity. And I also already explained that Perdomo is not "terrible", he has been unlucky with the BABIP allowed. His overall xFIP is in fact virtually equal to Grienke (3.96 vs. 3.95).

As for the last part, you are simply wrong, many also-rans tank late in the year, it happens in all sports. I am not saying they all do mind you, but it is pretty easy to spot those who do.

Rich Boy · 09-21-16, 02:32 PM

Got Over 7- 134, now at -154

Guess the market agrees with me?

LT Profits · 09-21-16, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Got Over 7- 134, now at -154

Guess the market agrees with me?

That has nothing to do with what we are talking about. You asked why the model likes the Under and I have given you sufficient reasons why,

JJJ · 09-21-16, 05:19 PM

Does Berrios win today? I know you have been on him almost every start I thought you were going to be the best man in his wedding

Husker36 · 09-22-16, 06:08 AM

awesome pick on the Arz/SD under. Another winning day!