CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Saturday 5/2/09

[cocknocker]

Well I'm still on the ground and the day is young. The Missus is fretting over new travel arrangements now that our trip to Can Cun has been cancelled. Degenerate that I am, I am taking this opportunity to get a couple of wagers in. I have a few plays that I will play today. I will give explanations throughout the day.

Phillies-115 HEAVY You know the drill-Mets won yesterday. Big Game Jamie
Colorado+115 Marquis Bay-Bee
Colorado-1.5 +190 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day
Cincy-115 There was a false favorite to begin with. Pirate bats are cold.
Cleveland-105 They have the better pitcher on the bump in Laffey

Added Play

San Diego-1.5 +210 (rag's play)

[dfinn21]

Hey CK, I'm definately with ya on the Phillies. I was also looking at Texas going against Contreras (I think they will rough him up) and Florida bouncing back against Lily as a dog. Any insight on those two games?

[jellobiafra]

CK, I'm going heavy the other way on NYM/PHI. Damn. I don't like that.

Going the other way on CIN/PIT too, but at least that one's not heavy.

Oh well, already booked. Good luck.

[The_Kid]

I'm going to wait to take the Angels in the morning. I know people will be pounding Sabathia and the Yankees tomorrow.It's inevitable. Palmer last started against the Tigers and did fairly well for his fourth career start ever. The Yankees have never faced him so the advantage is already on the Angels side. I look for the Angels to get back on track after getting ousted in the first two games of this series. Will take a look at the total too. With the way balls have been flying out of the new stadium, I'd be surprised not to see a couple dingers tomorrow. Plus, it's not like both bullpens are spectacular either. If both starters can't go long innings, the bullpens will surely give up their fair share of runs.

[danrman]

texas rangers in a blowout... also colorado and believe it or not the wash. nats

[laxdjock]

COL ML
CLE ML
FL ML
NYM ML Lean.....but +105 isn't much value. I'd take the RRL, but I won't be around to place it when it comes out. blah.

I may play 2-3 late games, TBD.

[Dexter]

2 plays for me so far today:

bulls +6.5 (3x) ~ this series has been a classic, and as much as the celts have the advantage at home in a game 7 - they are just not the same shut down defensive team without KG. bulls keep it close - celts move on but will be auto-fade each game next series for me.

marlins +120 (3x) ~ the fish are 7-2 vs southpaws this year, and while lilly been good so far in 09 - the marlins give him trouble (0-4 vs with a 5.53/1.40 era/whip). he's such a head-case, that you have to think he feels mentally beat going up against this normally lesser opponent. the marlins can mash, and have played very well in wrigley over the last 3 years (6-2). sanchez should be able to hold his own vs a mostly right handed cubs lineup that has 9 losses vs rhp already this year.

[peterpan19]

early games:
atl -1
stl -1

GL

later games I like so far: TX, BOS, KC, LAD

[Jimbo42]

Awww geez... CK your on the other side of this one...
I know Pittsburgh can't score but one system I wait on is to go against a team that has thrown two consecutive shutouts. Cincy just beat Houston 3-0 and Pitt 4-0.. it is really strong especially when taking the home team. This situation has happened just once so far this year. Ironically involving Pittsburgh...
4/17 Pitt over ATL 3-0
4/18 Pitt over ATL 10-0
4/19 ATL over Pitt 11-1

Just booked:
Pittsburgh -105 (Big)

GL to all

[shoebox]

Saturday

HOU/ATL under 8 -115 2 units
Mets +105 2 units

good day and good luck...........

[Jimbo42]

Morning/ afternoon games:
Just Booked:

Colorado +115
LA Angels +235 (small) (Sabathia has lost at -210 and -195 so far)
Philadelphia -120

GL to all

[repski]

Big Phils fan here....can't ride with the Phils here....as bad as Perez has been he seems to always pitch well against the Phils an their "anxious" bats...gonna leave this one alone...fwiw

keep up the good work CK!!

going to the game next Sat. vs Braves fiancee got me tickets 2 rows behind dugout..

[ragiche]

My plays for today are. I'm gonna play the money that i have won this week.

Hou ML (5x) Oswalt gonna win his 1st game.Just like hammels(phi),i cannot fade a good pitcher to lose 3 in a row.And he is an underdog.My crumbs play for today. (W)

Col ML (5x) Tailing CK. (W)

Phi RL (5x) Tailing CK. (W)

Bal/Tor over 10.5 (5x) Both teams can hit whoever is on the mound. (L)

Stl RL (5x) Pineiro will be the 1st 5 game winner. (L)

Bos RL (5x) Tb will still have no answer to wakefield's knuckleball.

So GL to all of you guys today.

[ragiche]

Gonna add Laa/Nyy under 5.5 1st 5 innings (2x). (W)

[GODFATHER]

Congrats

Hi Ck,

I know we got started off on the wrong foot when you posted in the machine's tread.

I have been following your posts and you have been giving very good and interesting information and it is a pleasure reading your form.

I have also seen that you and your wife are expecting, I wish you the very best in enjoying your newborn child.

Looking forward after your break in seeing your posts

[kmarinouofm]

picks for 1pm marlins team over 4.5 yankees vs LAA over 10.5


Good luck today CK, hope you get everything figured out..

by the way MIAMI is beautiful this time of year... and if you need anyone to show you around...maybe hook you up with some crops while you are here...

holla!!

[kmarinouofm]

final baseball picks for today

Marlins team total over 4.5
LAA vs NYY over 10.5
Phillies
Cleveland
Texas
and maybe the Texas team over depending on what it is

[cocknocker]

Ah km,

I think that I will mention this to the Missus. Now that was a good idea. She is looking for stunning beaches. I'm looking for dice games. I am trying to sell her on Vegas as any proud degenerate would do! I think that the Miami thing may fly though. I'll run it by her when she gets back from the post office

[Dexter]

My plays for today are. I'm gonna play the money that i have won this week.

Hou ML (5x) Oswalt gonna win his 1st game.Just like hammels(phi),i cannot fade a good pitcher to lose 3 in a row.And he is an underdog.My crumbs play for today.

hey ragiche - i really dont have an opinion as i could go either way with this game - if i had to play it, i would take the extra money on oswalt. the line movement is in oswalts favor. its dropped from 135 to 121. Good Luck today.

looks like i may be off to a bad start on derby day with the cubs taking care of sanchez..

[TheLemonDropKid]

Damn it.......I can't figure out how to do a superfecta box or trifecta box on my local books website.

That sucks...

[cocknocker]

I am going to say this again. CC Sabathia is NOT a -150 or more pitcher. I don't know how many times he has to burn y'all before you start to listen to me. I know what i am talking about. He wasn't shit before he went to the Brewers and he still ain't shit right now. even with all of that good New Yorker money

[cocknocker]

I'm going to wait to take the Angels in the morning. I know people will be pounding Sabathia and the Yankees tomorrow.It's inevitable. Palmer last started against the Tigers and did fairly well for his fourth career start ever. The Yankees have never faced him so the advantage is already on the Angels side. I look for the Angels to get back on track after getting ousted in the first two games of this series. Will take a look at the total too. With the way balls have been flying out of the new stadium, I'd be surprised not to see a couple dingers tomorrow. Plus, it's not like both bullpens are spectacular either. If both starters can't go long innings, the bullpens will surely give up their fair share of runs.

Another Crumbs lover! +220 is a good f*ckin' hit on one game. Just think if You had put up a dime or more!

[The_Kid]

Another Crumbs lover! +220 is a good f*ckin' hit on one game. Just think if You had put up a dime or more!

Too bad I don't have the funds to do that! I love it when the Yankees get inflated lines though!

[cocknocker]

Somebody call an ambulance. The Yankees have been run over by a car...

[cocknocker]

Kill the Mets! (Sorry Dex, I was having a flashback moment) Let's go Phillies!

[rb4033]

oh man.. atlanta ruin my parlay.. jurrjens sucks today

[Mr Handicapable]

I like the Reds today (-105) 3 units (RL +145) 1 unit

Ohlendorf isn't anything special...1-3 career at PNC w/.305 BA allowed! The Bucs haven't scored in 22 innings and the Reds pitcher Owings bats over .300 career w/power and can do some damage at the bottom of the lineup! The Pirates really miss Doumit the catcher at cleanup!

Reds 5-2

[cocknocker]

8-1 top of the 9th. I am calling this one over for you Kid. Nice. It looks like you have figured out the Crumbs theory. Taking dogs is the only way to consistently win in this type of betting! Now find some more Crumbs for tonight!

[peterpan19]

atlanta is far from done...also Mets and Phi game could turn into a slugfest...advantage Phi as I trust their bullpen a bit more...

[Dexter]

Too bad I don't have the funds to do that! I love it when the Yankees get inflated lines though!

nice call...

[ragiche]

Late play. Sdg RRL (2x) using the money i won on the laa/Nyy 1st 5 inn under. GL

[peterpan19]

at least the Yankees fought hard ... but still not enough...good call the_kid

[rb4033]

I hate the atlanta braves

[The_Kid]

Thanks guys. The bullpens gave up their share of runs to push it OVER too.

[Dexter]

Kentucky Derby Play~

$300 Win/$300 Place

#16/Pioneer of the Nile (Gomez-Baffert)

http://forum.sbrforum.com/horse-racing-betting/178368-dexters-derby-play.html#post1803337