Milwaukee 57% - Milwaukee has been abysmal offensively recently, but they are not likely to need to score much here.
At this point in the season, Milwaukee starter Ben Sheets will have an advantage over the young and probably wearying Florida lineup. Sheets has thrown few innings this year, and he is likely to go on a strong run to finish things off. Other than 2 terrible starts against Houston, Sheets has not given up more than 2 runs in any of his 5 other starts at home. He was very effective in his last start on the road against Florida, and a 7+ inning, 2 runs or less outing is likely from him.
On the other side, Florida starter Josh Johnson has been great, and Milwaukee is likely to struggle against him again. But due to Sheets' likely outing, small statistical negatives for Johnson in this start loom very large in the overall likelihood of each team winning. A close Milwaukee win is more likely here than in most other games.
Arizona 55% - The Nationals are sending out an unbalanced lineup for Game 2, with the entire bottom half of the order very questionable offensively. Although Arizona starter Livan Hernandez has had troubles all year long, he is still a gutsy competitor who knows how to pitch deep into games relatively effectively, and he will likely be gunning for a good effort here against his old team. Arizona rates a starting pitching edge with Hernandez over the very mediocre Bergmann, which gives them a modest edge overall.
Kansas City 43% - The Royals continue to be an undervalued team at home, as they have been all season long. They have a losing record but a positive return month after month. After their win yesterday, here they probably have value again as a big home underdog.
Mark Buehrle is likely to have a quality start, despite having been shaky all year long. Each of his last 3 starts against the Royals has been for 6 innings and 2 runs. But he still will be vulnerable, and Odalis Perez going up against the White Sox lineup without Jim Thome could easily match Buehrle's performance. The White Sox are no doubt the stronger team, but are probably overvalued here on the road.
Atlanta 54% - Atlanta starter Kyle Davies returns from the DL for this game, and he is more likely to have a strong start than Phillies' starter Scott Mathieson. Davies was very sharp in his minor league rehab starts, and Atlanta will send out a somewhat stronger lineup to boot. Both teams have serious bullpen issue, and this game could develop into an ugly back and forth affair with no one able to hold a lead. In that case, Atlanta will still have a small edge with a stronger and more balanced lineup announced for Game 2.
At this point in the season, Milwaukee starter Ben Sheets will have an advantage over the young and probably wearying Florida lineup. Sheets has thrown few innings this year, and he is likely to go on a strong run to finish things off. Other than 2 terrible starts against Houston, Sheets has not given up more than 2 runs in any of his 5 other starts at home. He was very effective in his last start on the road against Florida, and a 7+ inning, 2 runs or less outing is likely from him.
On the other side, Florida starter Josh Johnson has been great, and Milwaukee is likely to struggle against him again. But due to Sheets' likely outing, small statistical negatives for Johnson in this start loom very large in the overall likelihood of each team winning. A close Milwaukee win is more likely here than in most other games.
Arizona 55% - The Nationals are sending out an unbalanced lineup for Game 2, with the entire bottom half of the order very questionable offensively. Although Arizona starter Livan Hernandez has had troubles all year long, he is still a gutsy competitor who knows how to pitch deep into games relatively effectively, and he will likely be gunning for a good effort here against his old team. Arizona rates a starting pitching edge with Hernandez over the very mediocre Bergmann, which gives them a modest edge overall.
Kansas City 43% - The Royals continue to be an undervalued team at home, as they have been all season long. They have a losing record but a positive return month after month. After their win yesterday, here they probably have value again as a big home underdog.
Mark Buehrle is likely to have a quality start, despite having been shaky all year long. Each of his last 3 starts against the Royals has been for 6 innings and 2 runs. But he still will be vulnerable, and Odalis Perez going up against the White Sox lineup without Jim Thome could easily match Buehrle's performance. The White Sox are no doubt the stronger team, but are probably overvalued here on the road.
Atlanta 54% - Atlanta starter Kyle Davies returns from the DL for this game, and he is more likely to have a strong start than Phillies' starter Scott Mathieson. Davies was very sharp in his minor league rehab starts, and Atlanta will send out a somewhat stronger lineup to boot. Both teams have serious bullpen issue, and this game could develop into an ugly back and forth affair with no one able to hold a lead. In that case, Atlanta will still have a small edge with a stronger and more balanced lineup announced for Game 2.