Toronto 60% - Boston barely escaped with a win yesterday, as they needed a sub-par start from Halladay and a fluke home run to do it, but once again they are sending out a depleted lineup and a fill-in starting pitcher.
Ted Lilly is not dependable at all, but he is capable of a strong start, which Kyle Snyder is mostly not. With a superior lineup and bullpen, Toronto will have an edge if the game becomes a slugfest. If the game is not a slugfest, it will likely be because Lilly had a strong outing, not Snyder.
Minnesota 41% - Minnesota's offense has gone ice-cold, and Carlos Silva barely pitches enough good innings to be considered "shaky". However, Minnesota will have a significant bullpen edge in this game, which may well be a crucial factor in the end. Mariano Rivera is pitching with some pain, and he has thrown 2 days in a row. The Yankees are not likely to extend him unless it is absolutely necessary. Even though Cory Lidle has had some good starts lately, he is always hittable, and the Minnesota lineup will not likely stay cold for long. If both starters have roughly equivalent outings, Minnesota will have a real chance of winning, giving them value as a big underdog.
Mets 63% - It probably takes a lot more than Wandy Rodriguez, "Lights On" Lidge, and a few hitters with some pop to be close to even money in a game with the Mets right now, even at home.
Houston might seem to be playing recently, but most of that has come by dominating Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, against whom Houston was a combined 11-3 in August. Against other teams it has been a different story, as it is likely to be in this series with the Mets.
Tom Glavine does not dominate, but he does keep his team in the game, and if he can give a decent start, Houston will be hard pressed to hold the Mets down in the early going or catch up later on against the Mets' bullpen. Glavine's health is a minor question mark, but it was an odd ailment, and had nothing to do with his shoulder. It can be relatively comfortably assumed that he is fine.
Ted Lilly is not dependable at all, but he is capable of a strong start, which Kyle Snyder is mostly not. With a superior lineup and bullpen, Toronto will have an edge if the game becomes a slugfest. If the game is not a slugfest, it will likely be because Lilly had a strong outing, not Snyder.
Minnesota 41% - Minnesota's offense has gone ice-cold, and Carlos Silva barely pitches enough good innings to be considered "shaky". However, Minnesota will have a significant bullpen edge in this game, which may well be a crucial factor in the end. Mariano Rivera is pitching with some pain, and he has thrown 2 days in a row. The Yankees are not likely to extend him unless it is absolutely necessary. Even though Cory Lidle has had some good starts lately, he is always hittable, and the Minnesota lineup will not likely stay cold for long. If both starters have roughly equivalent outings, Minnesota will have a real chance of winning, giving them value as a big underdog.
Mets 63% - It probably takes a lot more than Wandy Rodriguez, "Lights On" Lidge, and a few hitters with some pop to be close to even money in a game with the Mets right now, even at home.
Houston might seem to be playing recently, but most of that has come by dominating Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, against whom Houston was a combined 11-3 in August. Against other teams it has been a different story, as it is likely to be in this series with the Mets.
Tom Glavine does not dominate, but he does keep his team in the game, and if he can give a decent start, Houston will be hard pressed to hold the Mets down in the early going or catch up later on against the Mets' bullpen. Glavine's health is a minor question mark, but it was an odd ailment, and had nothing to do with his shoulder. It can be relatively comfortably assumed that he is fine.