Mets 61% - For this game, like the one yesterday, the Mets should have a strong overall edge, but not because of an apparent big edge in starting pitching. Mulder is not likely to be ready to have a quality start at all, but Trachsel will also be very vulnerable. The key here will be the Mets' productive lineup against St Louis' very shaky bullpen. The Mets are likely to have a significant edge in starting pitching, although its likely magnitude is difficult to assess. But when the bullpens get involved, the Mets' pen will have a much easier time holding down the St. Louis lineup than the St. Louis pen will against the Mets' lineup. Even another 2-HR game from Pujols will not put the game out of reasonable reach.
Oakland 55% - Gustavo Chacin has some major question marks coming into this game. His rehab starts in the minors did not go well, and although he says he feels fine, his likely performance comes with a huge amount of doubt. As shaky as Loaiza is, he is probably in better shape than Chacin is right now. Even with Chacin in top form, Oakland would rate a small edge in this game, so any extent that Chacin falls short of that is just added value to the side of Oakland.
Texas 57% - Tampa Bay continues to be undervalued at home, and particularly with certain pitchers starting, including Fossum. Fossum could very easily match Millwood's outing, and although the state of the Tampa Bay bullpen is not optimal for this game, they should be competitive throughout, either in the lead or with a reasonable chance to steal it, at the end.
Oakland 55% - Gustavo Chacin has some major question marks coming into this game. His rehab starts in the minors did not go well, and although he says he feels fine, his likely performance comes with a huge amount of doubt. As shaky as Loaiza is, he is probably in better shape than Chacin is right now. Even with Chacin in top form, Oakland would rate a small edge in this game, so any extent that Chacin falls short of that is just added value to the side of Oakland.
Texas 57% - Tampa Bay continues to be undervalued at home, and particularly with certain pitchers starting, including Fossum. Fossum could very easily match Millwood's outing, and although the state of the Tampa Bay bullpen is not optimal for this game, they should be competitive throughout, either in the lead or with a reasonable chance to steal it, at the end.