August 21 Ganchalysis

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  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011

    #1
    August 21 Ganchalysis
    Yankees 60% - The percentage for this game could change greatly depending on who is in the starting lineups for the respective teams. A game with a one o'clock start time after one that ended after midnight the night before is sure to have some lineup surprises in store.

    Still, unless the Yankees empty their bench for this game (a distinct possibility), they will have another solid edge. Boston has been playing badly for a while now, and against good teams, seem to be squandering their advantages.

    In this game, they will not have the edge in starting pitching they had in games 2 and 4 of this series, which they were still unable to parlay into a win. This game is more likely to resemble the blowouts of games 1 and 3.

    In the bullpens, Papelbon is struggling for Boston, and after throwing 40+ pitches last night, is almost certain to be out for this game. Rivera may be as well for the Yankees, which does hurt them substantially, but with an edge in starting pitching, offense, and general play and momentum, the Yankees again measure up favorably.
  • BigDaddy
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-01-06
    • 8378

    #2
    once again good stuff

    thanks
    Comment
    • ganchrow
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-28-05
      • 5011

      #3
      Atlanta 68% - Pittsburgh has real trouble scoring on the road, and going against a strong and consistent veteran like Smoltz does not present favorable circumstances for them. Smoltz is likely to have a strong outing here, and very unlikely to get hit hard. On the other side, Duke has had problems on the road, and facing a balanced lineup like the one Atlanta will field is likely to cause him trouble. He has been pitching well of late, but he is likely to struggle a bit more here. The chances of a close win by Atlanta are much greater than usual.
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      • ganchrow
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-28-05
        • 5011

        #4
        Florida 61% - Traber's last two starts have been pretty good, but he probably overachieved, and benefited from pitching at RFK. His "let 'em hit it" style of pitching will not fare nearly as well on the road at Florida, facing a relatively balanced and capable lineup. Sanchez has a much greater upside than Traber, and a shut down outing is much more likely from him than Traber. Washington does have some pop in their lineup, but this game is likely to go to the bullpens with Florida enjoying a small lead.
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        • onlooker
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 08-10-05
          • 36572

          #5
          What are your thoughts on the Dodgers/Padres game Ganch? I would like to hear them.
          Comment
          • ganchrow
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-28-05
            • 5011

            #6
            Originally posted by onlòóker
            What are your thoughts on the Dodgers/Padres game Ganch? I would like to hear them.
            I am assuming you are referring to the pitching change, Stauffer for Park? I'm looking into it and I will post our position on that game as soon as I have it.
            Comment
            • onlooker
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 36572

              #7
              Originally posted by ganchrow
              I am assuming you are referring to the pitching change, Stauffer for Park? I'm looking into it and I will post our position on that game as soon as I have it.
              Well, either way. This was before I heard about the pitching change. But still would like to hear your analysis on it.
              Comment
              • ganchrow
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-28-05
                • 5011

                #8
                Dodgers 62%- Stauffer had poor numbers in the minors this year, and he is pitching on 3 days rest. Considering the current state of Billingsley and the Dodgers, the Dodgers rate a strong edge. However, Stauffer did have some quality starts last season on a few occasions, and statistically this is a more promising spot for him than his next few are likely to be if he sticks in the majors.

                The Dodgers' strong edge in this game is accompanied by a low confidence number. Billingsley has been very good, but he is still a rookie with a history of control problems going on the road. His confidence is increasing, and he should have a strong game, but that is also far from a guarantee.

                Additionally, the difference between the two teams is not nearly as stark as it would seem from their respective play in August.

                The most difficult factor to reconcile for this game is Stauffer's inferior Triple A performance this year, compared to his performance in the majors last year.
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