KC Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays 'Over' 7.5

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  • Jago2008
    SBR MVP
    • 05-18-11
    • 3047

    #1
    KC Royals v. Tampa Bay Rays 'Over' 7.5
    -Ervin Santana has had a good year so far 4-5 2.99 Era, WHIP close to 1- but he has struggled consistently in Tampa Bay, in all of his recent starts there he is 1-4 with a 5.47 ERA, but more compelling he has given up 8 HRs in those matchups; 3 out of 4 of those games went 'over' the total.

    -Jeremy Hellickson struggled relatively the last time he faced KC, giving up 4 ERs on 9 hits and a Home Run in a 8-9 loss to KC, in KC. But what's more compelling is Hellickson receives close to 7 run avg. of run support, Tampa Bay has scored 31 runs over their last four-game stretch against Boston. Tampa Bay has scored 173 runs which ranks 4th among the American League.

    -I know both teams are coming off tough series against "rivals" Boston and Detroit, but both these teams are playing with some steam, and if past performance can dictate at least a "trend" to a line, it would suggest this game should go 'over'.

    - Perhaps one of the few compelling stats to the 'under' is that KC pitching staff has the lowest team avg. ERA in the AL - limiting teams to 3 runs or less over their last 11. However with how Santana has struggled here in years past, Santana knows, and certainly these Tampa Ray hitters know, I expect batters to approach with more confidence.

    Both Lineups have good numbers against these starting pitchers.

    GL with your bets.

    6-1-0 in posted totals so far.
  • BigPete55
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-01-13
    • 441

    #2
    Looks like we dropped this one unless something big happens.....get em tomorrow bro :-)
    Comment
    • Jago2008
      SBR MVP
      • 05-18-11
      • 3047

      #3
      I've watched a lot of Santana's starts in this ballpark (when he was w/ the Angels), and I've never seen him pitch this well against this lineup. And with that said I'm surprised Hellickson was having such success, yeah I don't think there's anyway this game goes over the total. A lot of hard hit balls early but all to ppl and great fielding; Faded the line movement towards the 'under' but probably should have paid better attn too it.
      Comment
      • BigPete55
        SBR Sharp
        • 05-01-13
        • 441

        #4
        Get 'em tomorrow..... :-)
        Comment
        • Colts Pacer
          SBR High Roller
          • 08-08-12
          • 129

          #5
          Who you thinks gonna win?
          Comment
          • leetreaper
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 10-23-10
            • 34841

            #6
            Had the same bet too bro, unreal how we miss it...dunno
            Comment
            • Jago2008
              SBR MVP
              • 05-18-11
              • 3047

              #7
              Originally posted by BigPete55
              Get 'em tomorrow..... :-)
              Tonight baseball card was pretty bad, thank God I had no play on the Yanks v. Athletics game. Ha, thanks man you too.
              Comment
              • Jago2008
                SBR MVP
                • 05-18-11
                • 3047

                #8
                Originally posted by Colts Pacer
                Who you thinks gonna win?
                When games are generally this close and could perhaps go into xtras I'll generally side with the home team. But I have no particular lean in this game.
                Comment
                • Jago2008
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-18-11
                  • 3047

                  #9
                  Originally posted by leetreaper
                  Had the same bet too bro, unreal how we miss it...dunno
                  Yeah just a bad pick on my part, I'll have some more great totals coming up, sometimes there are things you don't have control over, perhaps the players went clubbing last night, hehe.
                  Comment
                  • BigPete55
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 05-01-13
                    • 441

                    #10
                    well, we got 3 runs so far, runner on with 1 out......guess anything is possible huh!
                    Comment
                    • leetreaper
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-23-10
                      • 34841

                      #11
                      Lol 8 runs haha, again we match up =
                      Comment
                      • drfunkmaster
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-29-08
                        • 11162

                        #12
                        touchdown and 2 pt conversion...
                        Comment
                        • Jago2008
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-18-11
                          • 3047

                          #13
                          DID THAT JUST HAPPEN LOL. I mean I have been watching baseball a long time, and that has got to be one of the quickest turn arounds for a total Ive seen in a long while. Figured they would score eventually, these pitchers arent world beaters but 8 runs ... after 2 hits and 5 shut-out innings no less.
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                          • leetreaper
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 10-23-10
                            • 34841

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Jago2008
                            DID THAT JUST HAPPEN LOL. I mean I have been watching baseball a long time, and that has got to be one of the quickest turn arounds for a total Ive seen in a long while. Figured they would score eventually, these pitchers arent world beaters but 8 runs ... after 2 hits and 5 shut-out innings no less.
                            Comment
                            • BigPete55
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 05-01-13
                              • 441

                              #15
                              WTF just happened.....
                              I jump in the shower after seeing the score 3-0.....I shave my nuts, scrub my ass real good and come out to a 8-1 ball game.....

                              Maybe I should play with my nuts more often, might be my rabbit's foot, HAHA...
                              Comment
                              • Jago2008
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-18-11
                                • 3047

                                #16
                                Originally posted by drfunkmaster
                                touchdown and 2 pt conversion...

                                Originally posted by BigPete55
                                WTF just happened.....
                                I jump in the shower after seeing the score 3-0.....I shave my nuts, scrub my ass real good and come out to a 8-1 ball game.....

                                Maybe I should play with my nuts more often, might be my rabbit's foot, HAHA...
                                T.M.I. bro haha.
                                Comment
                                • BigPete55
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-01-13
                                  • 441

                                  #17
                                  Haha....sorry got alittle beside myself....great job bro!
                                  Comment
                                  • R.P. McMurphy
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-15-12
                                    • 9654

                                    #18
                                    Great work as always Jago.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jago2008
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-18-11
                                      • 3047

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                                      Great work as always Jago.
                                      Thank you

                                      7-1-0 record in posted totals:

                                      6-1-0 in 'over' bets, 1-0-0 in 'under' bets, 1 NBA 'over' total bet. (approx +~13.5 units. @1u$50)

                                      Small sample size, I understand. I'll keep posting some winners, lets keep it going gentlemen, all opinions are welcome plz.
                                      Comment
                                      • BigPete55
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 05-01-13
                                        • 441

                                        #20
                                        Hey Jago....
                                        Interesting numbers I just came across on SBR - LA Angels / NY Yankees Under 8

                                        Under is 11-0-1 in NYY last 12 road games vs Left hand pitchers
                                        Under is 5-0 CJ Wilson's last 5 at Home....

                                        Now, add in that the Angels bats have been struggling.....definitely a pitchers park.....Yankees basically played a double header after their extra inning game last night and had to travel across country.......

                                        My only concern is how depleted are the Yankee's bullpen?????

                                        Whatcha think bud?
                                        Comment
                                        • Jago2008
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-18-11
                                          • 3047

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BigPete55
                                          Hey Jago....
                                          Interesting numbers I just came across on SBR - LA Angels / NY Yankees Under 8

                                          Under is 11-0-1 in NYY last 12 road games vs Left hand pitchers
                                          Under is 5-0 CJ Wilson's last 5 at Home....

                                          Now, add in that the Angels bats have been struggling.....definitely a pitchers park.....Yankees basically played a double header after their extra inning game last night and had to travel across country.......

                                          My only concern is how depleted are the Yankee's bullpen?????

                                          Whatcha think bud?
                                          Sorry to get back to you a little later- has been a busy day today @ work.

                                          I was looking over what you were saying Pete, thanks for your input, my only concern with both these pitchers is that they have both had "jekyll-hyde" like starts through out this year. One-start their command is great, the other they can't seem to get anyone out. Pettite could not get any batter out when pitched against Houston at home (a spot-start I watched), and has particularly struggled against the Angels for some reason in years past (posting something like a 5 ERA, high WHIP), and C.J. Wilson can be having a great game and then run into an inning where he walks A LOT of batters and gives up a 4-spot. I've watched C.J. and he seems to just lose focus after a poor pitch to walk a batter, or an xtra-base hit, drawing from his last start in Boston (allbeit a hitters park), he struggled just to get through 5 innings, and threw over 100 pitches in a 7-2 loss.

                                          -I can see your point about the extra inning game, fortunately the Yankees didn't have to travel too far to LA, and the game was played during the day, so I'm sure they were able to get a normal night of rest.

                                          -Both clubs don't fare as well against lefties, although the Yankees are much better than the Angels; Mark Trumbo has some power numbers, Trout is just Trout regardless of who's pitching to him, but Pujols and Hamilton are hitting below the figurative "Mendoza line" and a few other Angels batters have considerably lower avgs. against lefties.
                                          The Yankees fare better against Lefties: Texiera, Ichiro, Wells, Gardner, even Lance Nix, but Cano has owned CJ going something like 6-14, and also a .730 avg with 10 home runs against the Angels.

                                          -With a total like '8' books definitely want you to think this will be a lower scoring game after the Yankees COULD NOT DO ANYTHING WITH RISP in the last few games in Oakland. But this game 1 could easily go over that total if C.J. has another off-start with command, he hasn't demonstrated to me in his last few starts, even at home that he is in command. The foul territory is much smaller in Angels stadium, so I'm sure there will be less foul-outs and useless outs as compared to Oakland stadium.

                                          -Not exactly sure where to stand on this one, many times I'll bet on teams or pitchers that have the propensity to give up the big inning in my 'over' plays. Between both pitchers the OV/UN are something like 45-60% with their last matchups going under and a push.
                                          Last edited by Jago2008; 06-14-13, 05:44 PM.
                                          Comment
                                          • BigPete55
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 05-01-13
                                            • 441

                                            #22
                                            Thanks man for your input...I'm an Angels fan (shh) and I noticed exactly what you said about CJ Wilson! I'll prob just avoid this altogether..
                                            Do you have any other plays for today?
                                            Comment
                                            • Jago2008
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-18-11
                                              • 3047

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by BigPete55
                                              Thanks man for your input...I'm an Angels fan (shh) and I noticed exactly what you said about CJ Wilson! I'll prob just avoid this altogether..
                                              Do you have any other plays for today?
                                              Haha no worries, I'm a Padre fan, but I watch the Angels, Dodgers, Dbacks, A's, pretty much all of baseball, just feel like I have a "pulse" on this west coast teams generally more.
                                              Comment
                                              • BigPete55
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 05-01-13
                                                • 441

                                                #24
                                                Im actually on the Padres tonight.....
                                                Gonna be looking to see if you have any total plays tonight
                                                Comment
                                                • Mike Huntertz
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-19-09
                                                  • 11205

                                                  #25
                                                  Nice start!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jago2008
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-18-11
                                                    • 3047

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BigPete55
                                                    Im actually on the Padres tonight.....
                                                    Gonna be looking to see if you have any total plays tonight
                                                    Padres are a great team to back at home, I was actually looking at the 'under' in that game, Stults has been printing money on unders this season and I backed him a few weeks ago in Arizona, and Colorado, Cahill is a ground ball - double play pitcher. GL man, not sure if I'll have a posted play just yet, but I will have some this weekend for sure.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BigPete55
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 05-01-13
                                                      • 441

                                                      #27
                                                      OK bro....
                                                      GL if you hit the boards!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Jago2008
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-18-11
                                                        • 3047

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                                                        Nice start!
                                                        Are you referring to my totals picks overall or this KC v. TB game? That pick was for yesterday bro.

                                                        In any case thank you.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jago2008
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-18-11
                                                          • 3047

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by BigPete55
                                                          OK bro....
                                                          GL if you hit the boards!
                                                          Thanks Pete, GL to you too, I'm looking at some plays in the later games.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BigPete55
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 05-01-13
                                                            • 441

                                                            #30
                                                            Ok, I'll check back!
                                                            Comment
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