Det. Tigers v. Clev. Indians 'Over' 8

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  • Jago2008
    SBR MVP
    • 05-18-11
    • 3047

    #1
    Det. Tigers v. Clev. Indians 'Over' 8
    Both Verlander and Jimenez have struggled against these clubs respectively: Jimenez - 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA , and Verlander - 15-14 with a 4.68 ERA but probably what's more telling is the fact that both posted an abnormal WHIP above 2 this year in these matchups. Whether not that trend stays true, lineups suggest a propensity to stay in counts and have power.

    -A lot of good matchups for the Tigers this time around with C Branyan Pena starting for the woeful Avila - so we can almost guarantee no bunts resulting in double plays... Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, Peralta all have good numbers against Jimenez. Miguel Cabrera has hit safely in 25 of his last 28 games against with 12 home runs and 35 rbis and an OPS of 1.200

    -As for Cleveland they have gone 7-3 against former Cy Youngs this year averaging over 6 runs in those victories. Brantley, Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds all have good numbers against Verlander - with the outlier being Giambi who has hit .167 against the former cy young.

    -When Jimenez struggles with command, i.e. starts batters in 1-0 counts, or furthermore 2-0 counts he's giving up a .500 BAA, and SLGA over .800- (although this rings true for most hitter counts, but particularly for Jimenez) accounting for most of the HRs he's given up on the year. He had a good outing this year in Comerica park, but in 2012 and years past he has struggled, falling behind in counts and posting an ERA of 5, but a somewhat respectable WHIP of 1.3.

    -I haven't liked to bet many 'overs' with Scherzer or Fister on the mound, but Verlander starts have gone 'over' the total in 8 of his last 12 starts.

    GL with your bets.
  • Kermit
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 09-27-10
    • 32555

    #2
    Funny that you made this thread as I just made a play a few minutes ago. This is the over that I have wanted to play all day and I kept dicking around and the juice got up to -125.


    06/07 06:03 PM Total $200.00 $160.00 Baseball MLB - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit TigersTotal O 8 -125 for Game
    Also played a small prop

    06/07 05:45 PM Future/Prop $5.00 $175.00 Baseball Props - Indians/Tigers - 3015 Grand Slam +3500 for First HR of the Game Will Be
    Comment
    • Jago2008
      SBR MVP
      • 05-18-11
      • 3047

      #3
      Yeah the total just jumped from -110 to -120. It did however come down from 8.5 un20 earlier. Just liked that whole number here at least at the best value.
      Comment
      • Kermit
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 09-27-10
        • 32555

        #4
        I was debating playing the Box Score(H-R-E) over 27 for the slightly better juice(-115), but decided to just go with the Total instead.
        Comment
        • Jago2008
          SBR MVP
          • 05-18-11
          • 3047

          #5
          Originally posted by Kermit
          I was debating playing the Box Score(H-R-E) over 27 for the slightly better juice(-115), but decided to just go with the Total instead.
          Not a bad option, I'd like to see what both teams fielding percentage is, but I also went with the total. Lets get this.

          Honestly IMHO this game is going to go over the total with ease, or have something like a 3-1 game to it, I don't see a middling or getting close to the number. I'm just siding with trends, matchups and previous history here. GL man.
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          • leetreaper
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 10-23-10
            • 34841

            #6
            Already done!
            Comment
            • Jago2008
              SBR MVP
              • 05-18-11
              • 3047

              #7
              Originally posted by leetreaper
              Already done!
              What up Lee, nice to see we agree on this.
              Comment
              • 2daBank
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-26-09
                • 88966

                #8
                i played it once i saw Holbrook was behind the plate..
                Comment
                • Jago2008
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-18-11
                  • 3047

                  #9
                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                  i played it once i saw Holbrook was behind the plate..
                  Well said, and nice win on LAD last night.
                  Comment
                  • Kermit
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 09-27-10
                    • 32555

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Jago2008
                    Not a bad option, I'd like to see what both teams fielding percentage is, but I also went with the total. Lets get this.

                    Honestly IMHO this game is going to go over the total with ease, or have something like a 3-1 game to it, I don't see a middling or getting close to the number. I'm just siding with trends, matchups and previous history here. GL man.
                    I don't usually play the Box Scores in hopes of getting errors, but more so instead when 2 good offenses are against each other.

                    Sometimes you can middle the boxscore against the total like when a Total is set at 6.5, you can play the total over and the boxscore under say 23 or 24. I have middled this play around 4 or 5 times in the past and won both, and at worst only ate juice on one side if one would win and one would lose. This of course is a situational play and depends on various circumstances to decide if it is playable or not.
                    Comment
                    • leetreaper
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-23-10
                      • 34841

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Jago2008
                      What up Lee, nice to see we agree on this.
                      Lets bring this bitch home!
                      Comment
                      • BigPete55
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 05-01-13
                        • 441

                        #12
                        Jago, I got it at 8.5......what's your model suggesting, around 10 runs???
                        Comment
                        • Jago2008
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-18-11
                          • 3047

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BigPete55
                          Jago, I got it at 8.5......what's your model suggesting, around 10 runs???
                          Sorry to answer you late Pete, regardless of my system, what I would suggest is to avoid the hook in any instance. If you see the market moving in your favor wait til' the line favors your selection, in this instance I definitely saw some early action on the 'under' but given matchup numbers this seemed favorable to wait out a selection after the line had moved to 8.
                          Comment
                          • Kermit
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 09-27-10
                            • 32555

                            #14
                            Well we got 1 so far. So much for my Grand Slam prop.
                            Comment
                            • Jago2008
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-18-11
                              • 3047

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Kermit
                              Well we got 1 so far. So much for my Grand Slam prop.
                              Bases loaded, you still have a chance...
                              Comment
                              • leetreaper
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 10-23-10
                                • 34841

                                #16
                                Fat loser can't do squat obv...
                                Comment
                                • Jago2008
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-18-11
                                  • 3047

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by leetreaper
                                  Fat loser can't do squat obv...
                                  Haha with that said he takes away a double from Aviles (I'm talking about Dirks).... in any case I'll take a crooked number in the bottom of the 2nd, we just need to average that over 3 innings consecutively.
                                  Comment
                                  • Kermit
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 09-27-10
                                    • 32555

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Jago2008
                                    Bases loaded, you still have a chance...
                                    No, it has to be the first home run.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jago2008
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-18-11
                                      • 3047

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Kermit
                                      No, it has to be the first home run.
                                      Interesting, I've had some throughout the game, what were the odds on that?

                                      Verlander is dealing.
                                      Comment
                                      • Kermit
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 09-27-10
                                        • 32555

                                        #20
                                        Looks like we may need the Tigers to do this by themselves.
                                        Comment
                                        • Kermit
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 09-27-10
                                          • 32555

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Jago2008
                                          Interesting, I've had some throughout the game, what were the odds on that?

                                          Verlander is dealing.
                                          35-1

                                          I hit this one the other night

                                          06/05 07:35 PM 1440880669- 1 Future/Prop Won $5.00 $200.00 Baseball Props - Diamondbacks/Cardinals - 3015 Grand Slam +4000 for First HR of the Game Will Be (Won)
                                          I started playing this last week. Been playing one or 2 a day.
                                          Comment
                                          • Tofudog
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 04-30-12
                                            • 858

                                            #22
                                            Its looking like the Tigers are going to have to get at least 7 for your bet to hit.. Not looking too bad right now though
                                            Comment
                                            • Kermit
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 09-27-10
                                              • 32555

                                              #23
                                              Damn. Was hoping Cabrera was going to bust this one open.
                                              Comment
                                              • Kermit
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 09-27-10
                                                • 32555

                                                #24
                                                Bases loaded. Injuns gotta get something out of this.
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                                                • leetreaper
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 10-23-10
                                                  • 34841

                                                  #25
                                                  loaded
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                                                  • leetreaper
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 10-23-10
                                                    • 34841

                                                    #26
                                                    need at least 1-2 runs here to feel comfortable...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • leetreaper
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 10-23-10
                                                      • 34841

                                                      #27
                                                      puuuuuurfect
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                                                      • Kermit
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 09-27-10
                                                        • 32555

                                                        #28
                                                        Nice
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                                                        • Kermit
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 09-27-10
                                                          • 32555

                                                          #29
                                                          I was tempted to sprinkle a bit on 12+ at +300
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                                                          • drfunkmaster
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-29-08
                                                            • 11162

                                                            #30
                                                            good job..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jago2008
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-18-11
                                                              • 3047

                                                              #31
                                                              Winner in the bottom of the 5th, have to love that. Hope many of you cashed
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Emancipator
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 04-12-13
                                                                • 788

                                                                #32
                                                                Congrats to Kermit and anyone who had the Over.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Kermit
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 09-27-10
                                                                  • 32555

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Well as long as this doesn't get rain shortened, that is a wrap.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Kermit
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 09-27-10
                                                                    • 32555

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Emancipator
                                                                    Congrats to Kermit and anyone who had the Over.
                                                                    The TC had it with a Nice Write Up.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • leetreaper
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 10-23-10
                                                                      • 34841

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Last 2 me and you agreed - both winners
                                                                      Comment
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