Indians at Devil Rays - Aug 18th

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  • SBRforum Staff
    Moderator
    • 07-31-06
    • 1306

    #1
    Indians at Devil Rays - Aug 18th
    Tribe and D-Rays - Under

    Southpaws Sabathia and Fossum square off tonight in Tampa, and all signs point to a low-scoring contest.

    By: Ross Benjamin


    Southpaws Sabathia and Fossum square off tonight in Tampa, and all signs point to a low-scoring contest.

    Cleveland starting pitcher C.C.Sabathia enters this game red-hot off his last three starts in which he has posted a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.78 ERA.

    Tampa Bay starter Casey Fossum has been strong at home this season posting a very good 3.29 ERA in 12 starts at Tropicana Field. His last two home starts were versus Boston and Detroit and he did not surrender an earned run in either start covering 13.0 innings in which he allowed just nine hits, struck out 15 and walked only one. Fossum comes off a horrible outing in his last start at Oakland. However in four similar circumstances this season Fossum has followed a horrible performance with a quality start.

    Tampa is 1-6-1 under in their last eight, scoring just 20 runs in the process. The Indians are 3-8-1 under in their last 12 and have allowed just 33 runs in the last 11.

    Play: Under 9 (-105)
  • SBRforum Staff
    Moderator
    • 07-31-06
    • 1306

    #2
    Chalk This One Up For Tribe

    By: Ben Burns
    See Ben Burns's expert betting picks, predictions and best bets for NFL Football, College Football, CFL Football, and more. Buy a daily or season long picks package today.


    On a good run of late, Cleveland should handle the D-Rays in Tampa behind the left arm of C.C. Sabathia.

    A couple of teams going in opposite directions here. The Indians won a close one yesterday and improved to 7-2 their last nine games. The Devil Rays lost again yesterday and fell to 1-8 their last nine games.

    The Indians have averaged 5.4 runs per game this season. That places them fourth in all of baseball, behind only the White Sox, Red Sox and Yankees.

    On the other hand, the Devil Rays have managed only 4.3 runs per game. Thats the lowest mark in the American League and the second lowest in all of baseball.

    In addition to having the better offense, the Indians figure to have an edge on the mound this evening. Rays' starter Casey Fossum suffered a loss in his last start allowing five hits, five walks and five runs in just 1-2/3 innings. In five career starts against Cleveland, Fossum is 0-3 with an ugly 6.75 ERA.

    Conversely, Indians' starter C.C. Sabathia is 6-1 with a 2.29 ERA in seven career starts vs. Tampa Bay. He was great in his last outing, allowing just five hits and one run through eight complete innings while recording 10 K's to just one walk. That was the third straight superb start for Sabathia. During that 3-game stretch he has allowed just two earned runs in 23 innings for a miniscule 0.78 ERA!

    Lets look for things to continue the way they've been going and lay the price with the visitors.

    Play: Indians -165
    Comment
    • SBRforum Staff
      Moderator
      • 07-31-06
      • 1306

      #3
      Tribe-Rays Under 5-Inning Play

      By: Mark Miller


      With a couple of solid arms in Sabathia and Fossum, the under for the first five innings is the play in Tampa tonight.

      Wait a minute, your telling me that you have not played a single first half MLB game all year? I have received some e-mails lately on this subject and thought we could explore this play and give you an example a great opportunity in MLB betting.

      If you're not spot-playing first half games, AKA 5-inning lines, then you are letting opportunities to make money go by the wayside. Oddsmakers are forced to evaluate baseball for the full nine innings. They have to take into account the bullpens and we have found the best play in first half lines is the under play. The oddsmakers not only have to take the bullpen into account, but they also have to take the starters' overall numbers. With some hard work and research you can get great value on a pitcher who has had a slow start but has turned his stuff around.

      Like the example below we are using C.C. Sabathia, who has an overall ERA of 3.29, but has an ERA of 0.78 in his last three starts. We have gone 9-2 in 5-inning lines taking the under this year.

      It gets even better. Because the line is set for a full five innings, we usually get an extra half-run or sometimes a full run. If the overall line is set at 9½, we will get 5 for the first five innings, and if the line is set at 8½ we will 4 ½ for the five inning line.

      The best part of playing the 5-inning line is while the other guys are sweating out the relievers at the end of a game, you have already gone to the window and cashed you ticket.

      We continue to get value in Tampa with the first half plays as the oddsmakers look at the bottom line for the overall and game and are forced to cut that in half and most of the time give us a little more. Sabathia shows up at 8-8 with a 3.29 ERA and Fossum shows up at 6-5 with a 4.95 ERA. Let’s take a look at the recent form of these two pitchers. Fossum enters this game 2-1 with an ERA of 3.07 in his last three starts. Fossum is a home pitcher as his ERA drops to 3.29 at home vs. a 7.11 road ERA. In his last home outing against Boston (Aug 5), Fossum went six innings giving up three hits an earned run.

      Meanwhile Sabathia brings a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. Sabathia has always finished the season strong. Remember last year when he went 9-1 with a 2.24 from August on?

      Play: CLE-TAM 1st-half UNDER 5
      Last edited by Willie Bee; 08-18-06, 12:06 PM.
      Comment
      • Illusion
        Restricted User
        • 08-09-05
        • 25166

        #4
        Sabathia has been lights out recently and Tampa will not hit him. I like the Indians and the under.
        Comment
        • Bulldog
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 06-22-06
          • 839

          #5
          I like the Indians as well, thats the pick.
          Comment
          • bigboydan
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-10-05
            • 55420

            #6
            the d'rays are just playing out the string right now, so theres no way i could bet them in this game at all in any type of fashion.
            Comment
            • SBRforum Staff
              Moderator
              • 07-31-06
              • 1306

              #7
              Rays' Value Too Good To Pass

              A good home value team against a bad road value team all adds up to the Devil Rays being the play tonight in Tampa against the Indians.

              By: Ganchrow Sports

              Cleveland, in general, has a significant edge in starting pitching for this game with lefty stud C.C. Sabathia, which is the sole factor causing Cleveland to be such a big favorite. However, that is the only clear advantage they do have, and there are situational factors which suggest that edge might be less pronounced that it would be at other times.

              On a general note, over the span of the whole season Cleveland has been a much overvalued road team, with a return of about -26%, good for a loss of about 16 units, making them the second-worst investment on the road behind Pittsburgh.

              Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been a particularly good investment at home, with a return of about 16% for a profit of about 8 units. They are actually the second-best home team investment in the majors this season, behind only Minnesota (and roughly tied with Detroit).

              Even though Tampa Bay seems like they have been in a terrible slump recently, they still have had a solidly positive return at home in August. And Cleveland, despite playing well at home, has also had a sizable negative return this month.

              Tampa Bay starter Casey Fossum is not a dominant force, but before his last disastrous start on the road against the patient offense of Oakland he had two strong starts at home against quality lineups. Prior to that, he usually had reasonable starts at home, giving him some legitimately impressive season-wide numbers at home: 3.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .216 BAA.

              Cleveland is coming off of a poor offensive showing in the domed series at Minnesota, and Fossum has a good chance of having another quality start in this game.

              Tampa Bay's lineup is feeble, to be sure. They are likely to struggle against Sabathia. But Sabathia is also not the most consistent and settled guy around, and he is given to implosions. If that happens here, Tampa bay will be very much able to take advantage.

              A key factor to this game will be the bullpens. Cleveland's is poor right now, with ever-shifting roles and configurations. That does not bode well for a team on the road as a big favorite. Tampa Bay's is also shaky, but they are more consistent, and the addition of Seth McClung will help as he is well-suited to the role of a late-inning reliever. The iffy bullpen situation for both teams is likely to hurt Cleveland more than Tampa Bay.

              Overall there is a decent chance Fossum will be able to keep Tampa Bay in this game and, if he does, they will then have a good chance of winning, giving them value as a big home underdog.

              Play: Devil Rays +155
              Comment
              • bigboydan
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 08-10-05
                • 55420

                #8
                talk about a bad beat for the tribe backers tonight. the d'rays get a walk-off 2 run single to win it.
                Comment
                • Razz
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-22-05
                  • 5632

                  #9
                  Thanks for at least putting all these in one thread, shows progress.
                  I personally had under as well - tough one to lose, but not shocking considering the Indians had to get a save for it to win.
                  Comment
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