July 30 Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Mets 54% - James can keep his team in the ballgame, but he still will be challenged by the Mets' lineup, although it's not clear who will play today, and Delgado may be out after leaving yesterday's game with an injury. If the Mets sit some of their bigger bats, Atlanta will benefit greatly. Glavine is a bit of a question mark, as he has done well at Turner recently, but has not been doing well of late. Atlanta actually rates a small edge in starting pitching. However, the Mets' bullpen depth and quality rates a major edge over that of Atlanta, and that will likely play a significant role in this game.

Yankees 67% - This game has "payback" written all over it after the drubbing the Yankees took yesterday. Shields has not done well on the road, and a day game against an angry Yankee lineup does not bode well for him. Mussina has been consistent, and the Yankees will have their limited bullpen in decent shape. Still, the Yankees tend to be repeatedly overvalued when playing Tampa Bay.

Cleveland 60% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty. Piniero is very shaky, and Lee is as well, although he is more likely to have a quality start. Neither team has been hitting recently, but Cleveland is likely for an offensive explosion soon, which could come here.

White Sox 55% - The White Sox will have a bit more offensive firepower than Baltimore, and a better bullpen. But the starting pitching disparity is not be as great as it might seem. Chen was effective last season as a starter, and he could very well match or outdo Vazquez' outing today, as Vazquez gets routinely either hit hard or shelled. This game should be similar to yesterday's game, high-scoring and close. Yesterday, however, the White Sox had a huge edge in starting pitching, which they don't have today.

[Ganchrow]

Milwaukee 56% - Sheets' first start back from the DL was encouraging, but wasn't as sharp as it seems in the box score. He had troubles early on, and got better as the game wore on. It's not clear which is more indicative of how he will be in the near future, but it was nevertheless a very encouraging return. He should have a quality start, but Cincinnati does have a strong lineup and there is a small but significant chance he will give up a bunch of runs. Harang will be a bit vulnerable. The last time he went into Milwaukee, he was in a similar situation, off of a strong start with 4 days of rest and a relatively high pitch count, and he had a sub-standard start. He should have a good outing here, but there is also a good chance it will be of the 7 or 8-inning, 4-run variety.

[mad]

Any thoughts on the Oakland/BJ's game Ganch?

[Ganchrow]

Colorado 60% - Colorado has a significant starting pitching edge here, as Jennings has been a legitimately effective starter for a while now, and he shows no signs of that being a mirage. Thompson, on the other hand, has been iffy all season, is much worse on the road, and was recently sent to Triple A where he made one mediocre start. He will be vulnerable here against the capable Colorado offense.

[Ganchrow]

Toronto 61% - Komine had a great run recently at Triple A, but a change of scenery and moving up to major league hitters puts his likely performance for this start in doubt. The beginning of his season at Triple A did not go well, and he may well experience the same kind of growing pains in his first stint in the majors. Still, if he can continue to pitch with excellent location, he will be successful immediately. This game has a high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence number. Halladay is likely to throw a quality start, although statistically, it is also more likely to be on the low end of the scale for quality starts. Toronto has a major edge here, but not an overwhelming edge.

[mad]

Thanks mate.

[Ganchrow]

Texas 58% - There is not as much of a discrepancy in any area of this game as it might seem. Both starters are generally shaky but capable of throwing a good game, and they rate roughly even. Texas rates an edge in lineups and bullpens, but it combines to give them only a modest edge overall.