Washington 56% - Marmol has been having some good outings, but here in the daytime on the road, he is likely to experience the downside of rookie volatility. His control problems will hurt him against the balanced Washington lineup. Armas is also likely to have a mediocre start. Both bullpens are shaky. Ultimately, the lineup edge Washington has will give them an advantage at all stages of the game.
Minnesota 56% - Liriano's dominance might not be as acute for this game. He was hit by Cleveland 2 starts ago when he was affected by fatigue, and the same thing might happen to him here, pitching on 4 days' rest, off of a relatively high pitch count, and in the daytime where summer heat could be a factor. His likely performance is more uncertain that usual. Westbrook's is also unclear, as he has had a very high degree of volatility throughout his career in general, and particularly this season. This game therefore has a low confidence factor. Minnesota will have a bullpen edge, and in a close game, they will be able to roll out a succession of quality relievers, giving them a nice advantage if that becomes necessary.
Florida 63% - It's not clear why Gorzelanny is having problems in the majors; he has good stuff and had success in the minors. Whatever his problems are, his high walk total will hurt him badly against the balanced Florida lineup if it continues in this game. Willis has not been dominating, but has been effective and consistent, and that will serve Florida well in this game. If he doesn't get hit hard, Gorzelanny and the Pittsburgh bullpen will have trouble holding down the Florida lineup.
Detroit 54% - Robertson seems to have problems in games started early in the day, and this could well be the case again for this game. Loaiza seems to have problems in all games, and his career success against Detroit and at Comerica is not likely to translate into success in this game. This is a very evenly matched game in all areas, with questionable starters, and solid lineups and bullpens. Detroit rates a small edge playing at home and with a somewhat more balanced lineup.
Houston 52% - Oswalt is likely to have a quality start, and he may have a dominant one, but he has been a bit off at times this year, and the Mets' lineup will take advantage if he is again in this game. On the flip side, Pelfrey has been a bit shaky in his first 2 major league starts, but the Houston lineup might let him off the hook a little if he is so again. Oswalt's inning total is key to the likely outcomes of the game; every inning he pitches late in the game majorly increases Houston's likelihood of winning. This statistical tension gives the game a low confidence factor.
Minnesota 56% - Liriano's dominance might not be as acute for this game. He was hit by Cleveland 2 starts ago when he was affected by fatigue, and the same thing might happen to him here, pitching on 4 days' rest, off of a relatively high pitch count, and in the daytime where summer heat could be a factor. His likely performance is more uncertain that usual. Westbrook's is also unclear, as he has had a very high degree of volatility throughout his career in general, and particularly this season. This game therefore has a low confidence factor. Minnesota will have a bullpen edge, and in a close game, they will be able to roll out a succession of quality relievers, giving them a nice advantage if that becomes necessary.
Florida 63% - It's not clear why Gorzelanny is having problems in the majors; he has good stuff and had success in the minors. Whatever his problems are, his high walk total will hurt him badly against the balanced Florida lineup if it continues in this game. Willis has not been dominating, but has been effective and consistent, and that will serve Florida well in this game. If he doesn't get hit hard, Gorzelanny and the Pittsburgh bullpen will have trouble holding down the Florida lineup.
Detroit 54% - Robertson seems to have problems in games started early in the day, and this could well be the case again for this game. Loaiza seems to have problems in all games, and his career success against Detroit and at Comerica is not likely to translate into success in this game. This is a very evenly matched game in all areas, with questionable starters, and solid lineups and bullpens. Detroit rates a small edge playing at home and with a somewhat more balanced lineup.
Houston 52% - Oswalt is likely to have a quality start, and he may have a dominant one, but he has been a bit off at times this year, and the Mets' lineup will take advantage if he is again in this game. On the flip side, Pelfrey has been a bit shaky in his first 2 major league starts, but the Houston lineup might let him off the hook a little if he is so again. Oswalt's inning total is key to the likely outcomes of the game; every inning he pitches late in the game majorly increases Houston's likelihood of winning. This statistical tension gives the game a low confidence factor.
