July 19 Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Colorado 53% - Colorado has had alarming trouble with their bullpen of late. All of their top relievers are struggling, and badly, getting hit every time out. For this game that will be a big problem, if their offense doesn't explode again. Jennings has been very sharp, and could have another quality start here, but he will be more vulnerable than usual. Colorado is likely to continue its hot hitting from yesterday against the very iffy Duke.

Oakland 58% - Baltimore has had trouble all year against lefties, and Zito is very likely to pose another challenge to them. Benson has thrown very well lately, but he will be more likely than normal to have an off day here. The Oakland bullpen will be in a good position to hold any lead they might be charged with.

[Ganchrow]

Florida 54% - Sanchez is exhibiting classic rookie starting pitcher volatility, having thrown 2 extraordinarily sharp outings, and 2 bad clunkers, in his 4 big league starts so far. It is hard to say what will happen here. Ortiz is likely to have a so-so outing, a mediocre 6 or 7 IP, 3 or 4 run start. The game hinges greatly on Sanchez' performance, which is very uncertain, giving this game a low confidence factor.

Boston 70% - Redman has been terrible vs Boston throughout his career, and he is likely to get hit again here. Beckett has been inconsistent, but he is likely to bounce back from his last poor outing with a quality start vs the modest Kansas City lineup. Boston rates a significant advantage in all areas of this game, giving them a big overall edge to win.

Yankees 60% - Johnson and Meche rate much closer than they ever have, with Johnson holding only a slight edge for this game. Johnson was very efficient vs a strong lineup in his last start, and that sets him up for a good effort here, but Meche has been solid much of this year, and he is likely to match Johnson's outing. Rodriguez' likely return gives the Yankees a boost, and the availability of Rivera for this game also ups their chances of winning.

[Ganchrow]

Texas 62% - The only question for this game is Millwood's possibly injured bicep. It didn't bother his in his last game, and he is likely fine for this one. Even though Texas' offense has been cold of late, going up against Janssen and the Toronto middle relievers sets them up for a good day. Janssen is likely to get hit, and even if he doesn't he is very likely to come out of the game early. Millwood has done fine in his 14 career innings at the Rogers Centre, and he should have a quality outing here.

Detroit 60% - Bonderman is likely to have a bit of trouble here, but even if he does, he is likely to fare much better than Vazquez, who has serious question marks as a starter in general, and will be vulnerable facing the very capable Detroit lineup. Detroit will be gunning hard for a win the whole way, and they are likely to head to the bullpen with at least a small lead. There, they should have an edge as well, as their setup relievers are strong, although if they need Jones to save a close game they will be in some danger.

[Ganchrow]

St. Louis 68% - Carpenter will certainly be bearing down to stop the Atlanta offense, and he is likely to be successful at doing so. He is likely to have a very sharp start here. The big question will be how deep he can go. The Atlanta offense will explode against the St. Louis bullpen if it gets a few innings at them, but that may not happen. This lends a very high degree of volatility to this game. Shiell did well in 3 AAA starts this year, but he is likely to be in for a rude introduction to the majors this year after the 2 straight blowouts St. Louis has endured.