Capping and Discussions 7/6

[Illusion]

Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.

[Wassymac]

What do you guys think of the Cards/Astros tomorrow. I know typically if something looks too good to be true it probably is but I'm taking the bait on this one. Buchholz actually has a string of 4 worthwhile starts and one could say Ponson could be pitching for his job but I bet he knows he's gone no matter what he does tomorrow.

I debated playing the Astros runs O 5 but on the outside chance that Ponson doesn't lay an egg tomorrow I've still got a shot at a winner.

[bigboydan]

the way the cardinals are playing right now. i find it hard to take them at all personally.

[Wassymac]

well I just threw more down on the Astros. I know its bad money management with the amount I've got on it but this is an opportunity I feel like I can't pass up.

[bigboydan]

heres the weather reports for thursday:

Marlins
Nationals
no weather info available at this time on this game




Orioles
White Sox
Forecast : 79°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the NE at 7 mph



Cubs
Brewers
Forecast : 78°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the SE at 5 mph



Anaheim
A's
Forecast : 62°F
robability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the W at 16 mph



Yankees
Indians
Forecast : 73°F
Probability of Precip:20 %
Wind: From the NNW at 6 mph



Padres
Phillies
Forecast : 78°F
Probability of Precip:10 %
Wind: From the NW at 7 mph




Cardinals
Astros
Forecast : 84°F
Probability of Precip:50 %
Wind: From the ESE at 7 mph
(roof maybe closed)




Pirates
Mets
Forecast : 80°F
Probability of Precip:10 %
Wind: From the NNW at 10 mph



Giants
Dodgers
Forecast : 78°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the W at 4 mph



Blue Jays
Royals
Forecast : 84°F
Probability of Precip:0 %
Wind: From the SE at 8 mph



Red Sox
D'Rays
DOME



Reds
Braves
Forecast : 80°F
Probability of Precip:30 %
Wind: From the NNW at 9 mph

[bigboydan]

heres the early consensus from carib:

# 951 1:05pm Marlins (A Sanchez) vs Nationals (L Hernandez) Marlins 29.52%
Nationals 70.48%
315 Bets
# 953 7:05pm Padres (C H Park) vs Phillies (R Madson) Phillies 67.61%
Padres 32.39%
213 Bets
# 955 7:10pm Pirates (Gorzelanny) vs Mets (S Trachsel) Mets 96.88%
Pirates 3.13%
384 Bets
# 957 7:35pm Reds (J Mays) vs Braves (T Hudson)(TBS) Braves 73.33%
Reds 26.67%
270 Bets
# 959 8:05pm Cubs (G Maddux) vs Brewers (C Capuano) Cubs 16.52%
Brewers 83.48%
345 Bets
# 961 8:05pm Cardinals (S Ponson) vs Astros (T Buchholz)(ESPN) Astros 22.50%
Cardinals 77.50%
240 Bets
# 963 10:10pm Giants (M Cain) vs Dodgers (Hendrikson) Dodgers 56.58%
Giants 43.42%
228 Bets
# 965 7:05pm Yankees (R Johnson) vs Indians (C Lee) Indians 37.66%
Yankees 62.34%
231 Bets
# 967 7:15pm Red Sox (Wakefield) vs Devil Rays (J Shields) Red Sox 92.73%
Devil Rays 7.27%
330 Bets
# 969 8:05pm Orioles (R Ortiz) vs White Sox (J Vazquez) Orioles 9.76%
White Sox 90.24%
492 Bets
# 971 8:10pm Blue Jays (Taubenheim) vs Royals (M Redman) Royals 15.69%
Blue Jays 84.31%
306 Bets
# 973 10:05pm Angels (K Escobar) vs Athletics (E Loaiza) Angels 80.00%
Athletics 20.00%
180 Bets

[Willie Bee]

Buchholz actually has a string of 4 worthwhile starts and one could say Ponson could be pitching for his job but I bet he knows he's gone no matter what he does tomorrow.

You and I must have different definitions of 'worthwhile starts.' Buchholz didn't pitch all that badly four starts ago against Atlanta, and the bullpen let him down against the White Sox in Chicago a couple of weeks back. But he really hasn't strung together solid back-to-back starts since late April, early May.

Ponson pitched well enough to win at Arthur Andersen Memorial Std in Houston a couple of years back. He kept the ball down and sort of ran out of gas at the end of his outing. Rather fortuitous pinch-hit by Vizcaino did him in.

Houston's offense right now is simply unpredictable. Part of that might be Garner's constant tinkering with the lineup, though he really hasn't had much choice given what Astros hitters are doing. Pujols sees that left field wall in Houston and goes to drooling like Pavlov's dog at a bell ringing contest. But the guy who will scare me the most watching it tonight, assuming he plays, is John Rodriguez.

Hope you win, Wassy, but I just don't get the same warm fuzzies about the 'Stros in this one as you do.

[Wassymac]

If you consider his start against the White Sox a good one then he has a string of 2 solid starts going right now. I'm not saying he has to be great...just has to be capable. If he goes 6 inn gives up 4 or less then I like the chances that the Astros are sitting on a lead.

Ponson deep inside has the potential to pitch well (he did it 2 starts ago against the Tigers) but I'll play the odds that there is much greater than a 50% chance he can't keep the ball down and probably makes an exit by the bottom of the 4th.

Last 4 Buchholz starts
27.1 inn 15 hits 10 er 6 bb

[Wassymac]

I debated playing the Astros runs O 5 but on the outside chance that Ponson doesn't lay an egg tomorrow I've still got a shot at a winner.

I'm glad I didn't do that. Ponson may have saved his job again with his performance but Buchholz held the Cards down just enough to make the 'Stros a winner.

[onlooker]

Some nice throw outs by Berkman in right field helped your cause. Cardinals just a litte to aggressive on the bags tonight.

[Wassymac]

Some nice throw outs by Berkman in right field helped your cause. Cardinals just a litte to aggressive on the bags tonight.

Without a doubt along with some sloppy defensive work by the Cards.

[Willie Bee]

Great win for you, Wassy Garner played it like it was the last game of the season and do-or-die. This whole series really could be make or break for Houston. They really need to take three of four.