LVBound 2011 MLB Season Thread

[LVBOUND]

I just checked it on my chart it would have been a loss of 5.6K just above 5.5.

This would be a tough decision, based on my system, yes I wouldn't play it. With me starting with a 20% bigger bankroll than last year and moving my stop loss from 5k to 5.5k, I might not have stopped? I would have tried to get the line under -200 so I could play it.

[LVBOUND]

I just looked the line was -265 for game #2. I prob wouldn't play it. Maybe if I was up for the week.

This was one of the reasons I was looking hard at replacing the Phillies before the season starts. The huge lines. I had the same issue with NYY the last 2 years. Phi has actually been a thorn in my side the last two years also.

[BIGDAY]

Good Luck this season!

[LVBOUND]

Thanks man going to be more pressure than the last two years. Will have all of Sbr watching close.

[BIGDAY]

Isn't that crazy, you just want to help out and give back and the haters flood the board.

Hope you kill the books bro!

[LolsMcwinsey]

this guy is a cop?

[LVBOUND]

Yep

[PoweRay]

Let's get hypothetical for a minute.

Lets say the Cubs series started today and went thru Wednesday.

The Cubs win game 1....So you're up 1K and not betting them tuesday or wednesday.

The Cubs lose game 1....You bet 1550 to win 1K.
Cubs play on Tuesday....You bet 1550 to win 1K (since we'll just say the line is -155 again)

If they win do you bet them on Wednesday? If YES, what is the bet(using the -155 line again)

If they lose do you bet them on Wednesay? If YES, what is the bet(using the -155 line again)

Just so we are all on the same page, LVBound bets each game to win $1200, not $1000.

[PoweRay]

So basically this method is trying to win that VERY FIRST Home game of the series. Because, if it goes to the 2nd or 3rd game, we are just recouping some of the losses, as 90% or more of the time we will be laying chalk. If all our games lose that very first game, we can't profit for that series. Correct?

[PoweRay]

I have yesterday as 2-1 +540. (Texas win +1200, Cubs win +1200, STL Loss -1860). Tuesday plays will be STL (estimate -146) and Philly (est. -188) Good luck LVB!

[LVBOUND]

Correct Power Ray.

If the Cards could have won tonight it would have made 3k and a win stop and no games would have been to friday

[PoweRay]

Good stuff LVB. I looked up the good Home Teams from last year that had at least 50 wins at home and at least 90 wins overall. There are 5 teams: NYY, TEX, PHI, MINN, ATL. There records at home so far this year: NYY 3-1. TEX 4-0, PHI 3-0. (Min and Atl are away) I know we only try to win the 1st game of the series but they are a combined 10-1 at home!

[LVBOUND]

Tonight was an interesting situation that has occurred numerous times over the past 2 years.

Let me backtrack

When I play a series I start at game 1 and play in order

if it is a 4 game series I look at game 1 and game 4 whatever is the better matchup make sure to play that game

so if game 1 is better than 4 I play 1,2,3 and vice versa

Sometimes when you play big favs like the Phillies and Yankees etc you run in to a situation where although the series might be 3 games, you might as well call it a 2 game series because the juice if you loose will make it go over your stop loss of 5k last year 5.5k this year.

So for example The Phil Series
Game #1 -185
Game #2 -143
Game #3 - (-200) or so with Halladay

So because of these numbers if I loose game 1 and 2 I will be down 3600 and if I loose game #3 I will be down 6336. The reason this is because of the exp and play money the bet is really 1200 not 1000.

So since game #3 if it looses will be greater than 5.5K I can't even play it.

This is an issue when it Roy Halladay pitching.

This was a situation last year where I would have skipped game 1 (for the above reason and how bad Hamels pitches vs the Mets) I posted the numbers earlier in the MEts -1.5 thread.

Now I did not do this and I am a bit mad at myself. I blame myself for not studying enough and worrying to much about making sure I document everything correct on SBR. Also I am just rusty and not in the grove yet.

So a heads up if you follow my thread, this is the kind of move I will be doing throughout the year. This is another reason I was hoping to get a good thread going because two heads are better than 1 and maybe someone would have seen this before me and we could have skipped game #1.

Anyways here is our Sheet going in to our last game of the week tomorrow.

Week 2A comes down to this. If the Phillies win it will be a profit of $720 for the half week if the lose it will be a loss of $2,196

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 2A

Week 2A Profit $720.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $22.8K
Profit -$1200.00
Savings Balance -$8.00
Expense Balance $492.00
Play Money Balance $500.00




Will post a write up for the 3 series that start Friday sometime tomorrow. I am a little worried about Boston as a good team and bit worried about KC and Pit as a bad team. I will not make an rash decisions just yet though.

Matt

[LVBOUND]

The 3 series for week 2B starting Friday will be the following series
Betting team in (XXX)
Yankees at Red Sox (Red Sox)
Phillies at Braves (Braves)
Royals at Tiger (Tigers)


Dont have any lines yet

[LVBOUND]

Guys if you are into this at all let, me know how you are feeling about the 8 Teams?

I am trying to make it through week 4 before I make a change, but if the Sox get swept at home to the Yankees something will have to be done?


I also thought about jumping on the Rays as a bad team and taking away the Royals? What do you think am I overreacting?

Matt

[LVBOUND]

I didnt put the lines up, since they were not available, but here are the lines from the M Casino. I try to always take the Overnight lines.

Yankees at Red Sox (Red Sox) (-125) (got as low as -110)
Phillies at Braves (Braves) (+115) (got as good as +115)
Royals at Tiger (Tigers)(-170) (got as low as -155)

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 2B

Week 2A Profit $3600.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $25.216K
Profit $2,400
Savings Balance $292.00
Expense Balance $1,092.00
Play Money Balance $800.00

[LolsMcwinsey]

r u the police?

[LVBOUND]

Yea?

[LolsMcwinsey]

me too

[LVBOUND]

Kool Man

[LVBOUND]

Ok guys here is the schedule for Week 3A

4 Games

2 Start on 4-11 and 2 start on 4-12

[LVBOUND]

Made a mistake with my inital Week 3A schedule

I thought Arizona was on the Road, but they are at home. So I removed them

Now we got 3 Games

1 Start on 4-11 and 2 start on 4-12

[LVBOUND]

Lost the Red Sox tonight, hoping for a perfect 3 for 3 tomorrow to start this week on a good note.

[LVBOUND]

I am a fukking idiot sometimes, I do not know what is wrong with me. I am having a hard time reading a damm schedule.

Anyways another adjustment, Pit is not on the road they are at home. It is the Royals at the Twins.

Schedule is updated with tonights loss and tomorrows games

GL

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 2B

Week 3A Profit -$1,500.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $23.596K
Profit $900.00
Savings Balance $292.00
Expense Balance $1,152.00
Play Money Balance $860.00

***Not a great week, I know I said this before and am eating my own words here, I should have skipped game #1 of the Boston series. Dice K has been brutal and for a chance on game #3 to go after Shields, was a big mistake. I wish some people on this forum would see how much work goes into this and maybe provide some key advice like....."Hey I would Skip Dice K you wont have enough to play game 3 and they got Shields on the mound who has been rocked lately". This is nobody's fault, but between 40 hours of work 3 kids and try to track 2 different systems it gets crazy. I really feel whatever I profit this year no matter if it is just 25K or 95K, I know I would have made more if I handicapped the series a little better before.

I will make a post tomorrow with Week 3B's series and hopefully I do not make this same mistake a third time.

Good luck on your plays and please follow this thread it will be fun.

[LVBOUND]

Week 3B is upon us.

We got 5 series with 1 starting tonight.

Good Luck and lets get out of this small hole.

[LVBOUND]

Royals were the play tonight and were a winner, 4 more tomorrow. Lets make this a big weekend.

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 3B

Week 3A Profit -$1,560.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $21,836K
Profit -$660.00
Savings Balance $292.00
Expense Balance $1,252.00
Play Money Balance $960.00

***Not a great week again, but still hanging in bankroll is fine. I am thinking it is time to jump off the Red Sox, I am not worried about the Pirates at this time and Philly just had a bad game.

Game 2 of Philly got Rained out and will be made up later NOT This weekend, so I am just ending the series.

Will update you guys on Week4A plays later tonight.

Week 3 Game by Game


System Overview




Good Luck

Matt

[LVBOUND]

Week 4a is here

2 series start Monday 2 start Tuesday.
Forgive me until Tuesday I can't post details like line numbers ect...on a trip with the wife. I'll update exacts upon my return.

Monday series

Phillies
Rangers

Tuesday series

Marlins
Reds


Good luck

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 4A

Week 3A Profit -$2,664.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $19,172K
Profit -$3,324.00
Savings Balance $292.00
Expense Balance $1,352.00
Play Money Balance $1,060.00

***Horrible week again, got to find a way to get out of this stretch. I am removing the D Backs and Royals and replacing them with the Twins and the Mets.

Patience is the key to this, every season has some losing weeks, I just hate when it is early.

It is time for all my haters to come in and bash this system. I could really use it to bring good karma.







I am hoping to shake things up and get to winning.



Week 4B on had 1 series and that is the Rangers, so lets pound it and get a few bucks back.

[LVBOUND]

Recap after Week 4B

Week 4B Profit $3,600.00

Starting Bankroll $25K
Ending Bankroll $23,612K
Profit $276.00
Savings Balance $592.00
Expense Balance $1,992.00
Play Money Balance $1,400.00

***I decided not to replace the Twins, because I wanted to finish April before I made a crazy decision. I also kept the D Backs because they were playing the Mets and I want to see who was the better team before I made this decision.

So after the way the Mets handled the D backs I wont be removing them and same for the Royals.





Week 5A

1 Series Monday and 2 Tuesday