As a mostly contrarian bettor, the play here would be to take the points because the entire betting community is very likely to play the chalk and drive this number to -6 by game time. The right time to play the Panthers would be right now and the right time to play the Broncos would be on game day. We’ll choose the former which gives us the option of coming back on the Broncos on Super Bowl Sunday or let this bet stand at a good number.

The question now becomes are the Panthers really that good or was the timing just right for them to put away both Seattle and Arizona in their two playoff games? After all, Carson Palmer was showing signs of a steep decline and it caught up to him. Seattle was coming off a bruising win over Minnesota in frigid temperatures and also had to travel in consecutive weeks when they fell behind 31-0 in the first half to Carolina. All of that may be true but what were the Panthers supposed to do? Had they grinded out two victories in two playoff games, would the line be any different?

Back in 1991, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Oakland Raiders, 51-3 in the AFC Championship game and they opened as a -4½ point choice in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. That line closed with Buffalo being a six-point choice and they lost outright. This one is likely going to have a similar reaction but it’s not likely going to have a similar result. To us, this Super Bowl is more similar to Super Bowl XXIX, when San Fran spanked the Chargers, 49-26. That was a QB mismatch with Steve Young against Stan Humphries and this Super Bowl is a QB mismatch as big as that one.

Peyton Manning is backup material now. His balls have little zip and he plays with some fear of getting hit. That’s what happens when you’re coming off two neck surgeries. There is no destiny here for Manning. He had his time in the sun but it’s over. The Broncos had a mere 12 first downs against the Patriots and were moving backwards most of the time. You are going to hear about Denver’s great defense and may be tempted to play them but the Steelers racked up 339 yards of passing against them and Tom Brady racked up 292 yards against them. Against New England, Manning had a mere 145 yards passing. Ben Roethisberger and Brady are perhaps the two most immobile QB’s in the NFL. Denver will not have that same luxury here. Cam Newton spits out rushing linebackers.

The Carolina Panthers have everything the Broncos don’t have and then some. It is Carolina’s ferocious defense that should be the focus here but the media has to build up something that gives the Broncos a fighting chance. Offensively, this one is a no contest. QB comparisons are a no contest too. Defensively, the Broncos are in the conversation but in that department, Carolina is the superior unit once again that has a far better chance of getting to Manning than the Broncs have at getting to Newton.The average margin of victory in 11 prior Super Bowl meetings between top-seeded teams is 19.9 points and we’re suggesting that the Broncos might not even get that close.


Carolina -5