Trade Grades: Matt Murray to the Toronto Maple Leafs

Is Matt Murray the answer to Toronto’s goaltending problems?

Goaltending was going to be an obvious area of concern for the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the offseason, as Jack Campbell is an unrestricted free agent. As it currently stands, it looks like he is going to command more on the open market than the Maple Leafs are willing to pay.

Petr Mrazek was traded to Chicago during the first round of the NHL Draft last week. That left Toronto with Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll, a pair of goalies that saw some time with the Maple Leafs last season but are more likely to fit in the American Hockey League.  

After a few of the free agent goaltenders started to move, there were fewer options for the Maple Leafs and they went out and completed a trade for Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray.

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1546645700259323910?s=20&t=y0tZMzdULPfLHFbeGvprOg

Let's examine the trade from both team's perspectives and then assign a grade for each.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Matt Murray, 28, started his career in fine form with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Through his first four seasons, he had a .917 save percentage in 161 regular-season games and was a major contributor to two Stanley Cup championships.

Then he struggled in his last season with the Penguins, in 2019-2020, and was not any better in his first season with the Ottawa Senators in 2020-2021.

He rebounded closer to league average last season, finishing with a .906 save percentage and -0.5 Goals Saved Above Average. However, that was in just 20 games, and that brings up another real concern about Murray, which is his ability to stay healthy.

https://twitter.com/NHLInjuryViz/status/1546207001566388232?s=20&t=y0tZMzdULPfLHFbeGvprOg

If Murray can stay healthy, there is at least some hope of his performance being all right. In his first 18 games last season, Murray had a .920 save percentage. Then he gave up 13 goals on 66 shots in his last two starts and a concussion sidelined him for the rest of the season.

The challenge for the Maple Leafs is whether they can get Matt Murray, a goaltender who has a .911 save percentage in 246 career games, or are they stuck with Matt Murray who has a .899 save percentage in 85 games across the past three seasons.

The Maple Leafs are inclined to make this deal for Murray because they are familiar with him. He played for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the Ontario Hockey League when Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas was the General Manager and when Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe was the Greyhounds’ head coach. That has been a trend for the Maple Leafs during Dubas’ time as GM, for better or worse. In this case, if Murray doesn’t pan out, the ex-Greyhounds angle will not be judged too kindly.

In addition to Murray’s relative lack of consistency in recent seasons, the Maple Leafs are taking on three-quarters of his salary cap hit, which means they are on the hook for nearly $4.7 million in cap space over the next two seasons. If Murray flops, that cap hit will be a problem.

Finally, the Maple Leafs still have an opportunity to add another goaltender via free agency or trade and if the other goaltender brings some potential upside — San Jose’s Adin Hill or Washington Capitals free agent Ilya Samsonov might be interesting options — that could make the risk to take on Murray more palatable.

The Maple Leafs also received a third-round pick and a seventh-round pick as sweeteners in the deal. A third-round pick typically offers about a one-in-four chance of turning into an NHL player while a seventh-round pick is closer to a 10% chance of the player appearing in 100 NHL games.

Overall, though, the Maple Leafs are committing a significant cap hit to a risky proposition for the next two seasons, a notable risk for a team that is among the Stanley Cup favorites next season.

Trade Grade: C-

Ottawa Senators

From the Senators’ perspective, they made out okay, because they have two younger and cheaper options that they want to use in net this season. Anton Forsberg emerged as Ottawa’s best goaltender last season, posting a .917 save percentage in 46 games, a somewhat surprising development for a player who had previously cleared waivers. He will pair with Filip Gustavsson, a 24-year-old who has a .905 save percentage in 27 career NHL games.

The value for the Senators is that unloading three-quarters of Murray’s cap hit should free up Ottawa to make a splash in free agency. Whether that means signing someone like Claude Giroux or another premium asset to help take this rebuilding team to the next level remains to be seen.

Under the circumstances, the Maple Leafs and Senators both had various leverage points in the deal, but it looks like Ottawa made out with better value by simply shedding Murray's contract.

Trade Grade: B

Here are the current Stanley Cup odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7Pe4f/4/

Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum.