The Australian Open begins in a little over a week. I'm excited about it!!!Let's make this tournament a profitable one. Considering that more money is wagered on tennis during the 8 'major' weeks than the other 40+ weeks of a tennis year*, the opportunies should be plentiful.
Main draw: January 14 (FRI)
Play starts: January 17 (MON)
Final date: January 30 (SUN)
link
Federer and Nadal, the top two ATP ranked players are favored by the bookmakers to win the first major tournament of 2011. Since Australian Open Champion futures market opened two months ago on Pinnacle, Roger's stock has risen significantly (from +350 to +220 for -59%), while Rafael's dropped (from +185 to +210 for +13%).
Last year's final
2010:
(1) Federer def. (5) A.Murray 6-3 6-4 7-6
Murray's future has remained at +670 since opening.
Soderling: +1771 to current +2546 (+43%).
Djokovic: +875 to current +1034 (+18%)
Every other contender can make an incredibly optimistic punter from +4200 (Roddick +12% and Del Potro +137%) to +15118 (Bagdatis) and +22567 (Gulbis), although I don't expect anyone outside of Cyprus and Latvia spend much cash on the latter pair. These prices reflect how likely the oddsmakers think either player is to beat both Roger and Rafael during the same tournament, in a five-set format. The chance of neither Nadal nor Federer making the final is probably under 5%*.
Post your estimate of how likely the 'Big Two' final is. Last year, Betfair, Pinnacle and Bet365 all had this market priced up (although only the latter is available to the USA-based bettors)
My prediction: off the top of my head I'd say that likelihood is around 35%*.
'Federer-Nadal final? - YES' opens at +250 and quickly gets bet down to +225-ish*. This means that at 35% I'd have to make a sizeable wager and enjoy Federer's flowing tennis mixed with a couple of nailbiters courtesy of Nadal (including at least one comeback from two sets down!*). Eventually I would try to sell this bet at QF stage, before Nadal faces either Davydenko, Soderling or Djokovic.
*Please comment on my estimates, and post yours.
Main draw: January 14 (FRI)
Play starts: January 17 (MON)
Final date: January 30 (SUN)
link
Federer and Nadal, the top two ATP ranked players are favored by the bookmakers to win the first major tournament of 2011. Since Australian Open Champion futures market opened two months ago on Pinnacle, Roger's stock has risen significantly (from +350 to +220 for -59%), while Rafael's dropped (from +185 to +210 for +13%).
Last year's final
2010:(1) Federer def. (5) A.Murray 6-3 6-4 7-6
Murray's future has remained at +670 since opening.
Soderling: +1771 to current +2546 (+43%).
Djokovic: +875 to current +1034 (+18%)
Every other contender can make an incredibly optimistic punter from +4200 (Roddick +12% and Del Potro +137%) to +15118 (Bagdatis) and +22567 (Gulbis), although I don't expect anyone outside of Cyprus and Latvia spend much cash on the latter pair. These prices reflect how likely the oddsmakers think either player is to beat both Roger and Rafael during the same tournament, in a five-set format. The chance of neither Nadal nor Federer making the final is probably under 5%*.
Post your estimate of how likely the 'Big Two' final is. Last year, Betfair, Pinnacle and Bet365 all had this market priced up (although only the latter is available to the USA-based bettors)
My prediction: off the top of my head I'd say that likelihood is around 35%*.
'Federer-Nadal final? - YES' opens at +250 and quickly gets bet down to +225-ish*. This means that at 35% I'd have to make a sizeable wager and enjoy Federer's flowing tennis mixed with a couple of nailbiters courtesy of Nadal (including at least one comeback from two sets down!*). Eventually I would try to sell this bet at QF stage, before Nadal faces either Davydenko, Soderling or Djokovic.
*Please comment on my estimates, and post yours.
