Why is the line on Andreev dropping?

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  • Cheetahponti
    Restricted User
    • 12-09-09
    • 377

    #1
    Why is the line on Andreev dropping?
    Anyone know? I have a large parlay I placed with Becker and Andreev as I felt these guys roll easy today. The Andreev line however has been rapidly dropping and he's now only -123 against Kunitsyn - started somewhere around -150.

    Anyone got any clues? I mean - the guy he is playing Kunitsyn is 2-7 on hard courts and Andreev has some pretty solid recent results. It smells fishy to me and a potential fix in the work so I'm thinking of hedging out of the parlay and making a small profit and leaving.
  • Rod1010
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-01-10
    • 6208

    #2
    hedge.
    Comment
    • Cheetahponti
      Restricted User
      • 12-09-09
      • 377

      #3
      OK, so H2H has Kunitsyn winning their only previous 2 encounters, so there could be a more innocent explanation. Andreev was however accused of match fixing previously (google it), and with two Russians playing in Russia anything could happen. I'm out of this play.
      Comment
      • WalkingLuckCharm
        SBR MVP
        • 06-07-10
        • 4192

        #4
        Yah, studied the line movement, I have 4 units on Kunitsyn
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #5
          It's Russian vs. Russian ATP style, you should probably avoid it altogether. Over is what I might touch here, but even that is hard to predict with these dirty mofos.
          Comment
          • shari91
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 02-23-10
            • 32661

            #6
            Someone at one of my books just dropped $20k on Kunitsyn. Not sure if that means anything or they're just really confident in his ability to win but I think I'm going to throw $20 of my own cash on him now.
            Comment
            • domz248
              Restricted User
              • 06-02-10
              • 1341

              #7
              mine is at even money now
              Comment
              • HeeeHAWWWW
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-13-08
                • 5487

                #8
                Kunitsyn won this event in 2008, and Andreev is a massive mug these days. Not far off 50/50 imo, so it's probably not based on inside info.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #9
                  That line movement IMO is not significant enough to start second guessing yourself either. If it went from -150 to him being like a +150 dog then I would say something is fishy. Otherwise, stick with your original thoughts and let the chips fall where they may.
                  Comment
                  • will2survive
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-26-09
                    • 8099

                    #10
                    Andreev will win...no worries here
                    Comment
                    • Cheetahponti
                      Restricted User
                      • 12-09-09
                      • 377

                      #11
                      I've hedged so I lose a tiny amount if Andreev loses and still make a good profit if he wins - happy with that, but staying away from any more Russian on Russian action in this tournament.

                      Agree that it's not a huge line movement, but it's not a small one either, and it's not like anything has come to light about injuries, etc. I guess my default assumption is that with Russians involved it's dodgy

                      If it is dodgy, 'll be looking for Andreev to take the first set easily, be ahead in the second till the odds of him losing go into 20:1 type category, mysteriously start misfiring, lose the set in a close one before being blown out in the third - match fixing 101
                      Comment
                      • will2survive
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 11-26-09
                        • 8099

                        #12
                        Andreev up a break the entire set and tanks it---is this fixed
                        Comment
                        • Mikail
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 07-19-09
                          • 21689

                          #13
                          Now we know why line plummeted.
                          Comment
                          • Cheetahponti
                            Restricted User
                            • 12-09-09
                            • 377

                            #14
                            Fishy fishy game, note to self, never bet on crazy Russians on their home turf again
                            Comment
                            • shari91
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 02-23-10
                              • 32661

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Cheetahponti
                              Fishy fishy game, note to self, never bet on crazy Russians on their home turf again
                              Comment
                              • WalkingLuckCharm
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-07-10
                                • 4192

                                #16


                                4u won on + money!

                                line movement always tells a story
                                Comment
                                • AbleFollow
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 01-29-10
                                  • 834

                                  #17
                                  it's the tourney in the Moscow. Anything else here that could be said
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeeHAWWWW
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-13-08
                                    • 5487

                                    #18
                                    KUnitsyn is taking this event very seriously - he's been training for a week ahead of everyone else, which is quite an advantage The arena is quite unusual, huge and imposing, a lot of players mention it. Also using technifibre balls on a surface like that is just odd - it's far too sticky, normally technifibre is paired with medium or fast greenset. Lots of odd bounces as a result, and Kunitsyn has had much more practice time than the rest (especially those who were in Asia).
                                    Comment
                                    • AbleFollow
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-29-10
                                      • 834

                                      #19
                                      I guess golubev will win today
                                      Comment
                                      • HeeeHAWWWW
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 06-13-08
                                        • 5487

                                        #20
                                        Dunno, Golubev is a total mystery - pattern since hamburg is great tournament followed by months being useless.
                                        Comment
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