What is going on with the Sweeting Llodra Line?

**Goat Milk** · 08-03-10, 03:48 PM

Sweeting jumped to -280, now back down to -180

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 04:52 PM

thats weird, camp must have leaked llodra hurt something during practice but he's been healthy all season

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-03-10, 05:01 PM

Llodra has always been a better indoor hard court guy where his serve is more under control. Shit, I wouldn't trust Sweeting with Bin Laden's money at this price regardless of any leaked info.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-03-10, 05:10 PM

Llodra has done this quite a few times before.

Sweeting currently sitting at -225 at BetFair. Pinnacle closed their markets at -275.

**goblue12** · 08-03-10, 05:14 PM

Got him around -121.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-03-10, 05:18 PM

Got some +116 :-) Llodra in R1 on American hard court, where he's never too interested, and with a masters next week. Had my eye on it as a possible dodgy one early on, and jumped when it started to move.

Could be exchange manipulation though, there's been quite a bit of that lately, and those guys have serious money to throw around.

**yisman** · 08-03-10, 05:30 PM

this reminds me of a few months ago, with Mario Ancic vs. Koellerer. Of course, in that one, huge money came in on Ancic, and Koellerer won 7-6 7-5 (he closed as like a +350 dog or something ridiculous).

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 05:31 PM

yea same thing happened in newport with soeda/dabul.. soeda dropped to -300 or something crazy from +120 and then lost easily in 2

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-03-10, 05:44 PM

Yup, and again with Dolgopolov in Umag, although that perhaps was genuine - he did seem injured the previous match.

Much bigger money involved here though, not sure how they can so easily manipulate the market. With Soeda it was easy, only pennies in there.

**Fthenorm** · 08-03-10, 05:48 PM

hard to envision llodra losing this one...regardless of his outdoor hard pedigree or interest in matches played in the US. Wrong guy favored for sure.

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 05:55 PM

yea dolgopolov in umag i watched the match before and he was clearly hurt, but it doesnt take much to beat franco skugor

i guess llodra is notorious for tanking these type of matches right before a masters event, and with him play a hometown type of guy desperate for this win i guess its a good bet. but now that its been pumped up i would never touch it

**yisman** · 08-03-10, 06:50 PM

just started

any links available?

I don't see anything at atdhe or livescorehunter

**Goat Milk** · 08-03-10, 06:55 PM

Don't believe there are any links for these opening matches in washington. i saw you have a big play on sweeting. He is a terrible player, but hope he pulls through for you here. This line movement here is really shady, very different from the Dolgo match before.

**yisman** · 08-03-10, 07:07 PM

still zero holds.

I put in a lot in the SBR Book on Sweeting -121 with a few people, but I bought back 500 on Llodra at +220, so it won't be a disaster if Llodra wins.

Four games, four breaks.

as for links, the funny thing is there are actually links for challenger events (starace, for example), but nothing for this. I don't understand it.

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 07:09 PM

wow you know this match is ****** up when it starts off with 4 consecutive breaks

**yisman** · 08-03-10, 07:17 PM

Sweeting with yet another break after a few holds and Sweeting leads 5-3

just based on the scoreboard, this is one of the strangest matches of the year

**yisman** · 08-03-10, 07:20 PM

llodra first serve: 39%
sweeting first serve: 48%
llodra second serve: 14%
sweeting second serve: 57%

5-4 sweeting

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 07:27 PM

got the first set

**Goat Milk** · 08-03-10, 07:44 PM

Sweeting looks like a winner. I can't wait to fade him later in this tourney.

By the way this match is definitely fixed. When Llodra is getting foot faults. How obvious are you gonna make it you scrub

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 07:47 PM

verdasco should be way too big a fav to be worth a bet over sweeting though, glad to see he came back from 4-6 2-5 to win

**Goat Milk** · 08-03-10, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by JNic

verdasco should be way too big a fav to be worth a bet over sweeting though, glad to see he came back from 4-6 2-5 to win

yeah hopefully books adjust verdasco's price/HC after today's horrible performance.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 08-03-10, 08:41 PM

Careful of Verdasco, apparently he twisted his ankle in the final set tb.

**JNic** · 08-03-10, 08:48 PM

wow where do you hear this, you always got the best info

**shari91** · 08-03-10, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Careful of Verdasco, apparently he twisted his ankle in the final set tb.

Yeah, I saw that Tweet.

I'm going to see if I can get any dirt from one of my friends behind the scenes there. Hopefully he'll be able to tell us more definitively how bad it is.

**beefcake** · 08-03-10, 10:29 PM

I wonder if the makers of twitter ever realized how much of an asset it would be to Gamblers..?