HCE - Heavy Chalk Experiment

[brko]

I was fighting this idea of mine for some time - opening a thread for heavy favs in tennis. I know all the pro's and con's for betting the favs in tennis, and I am aware that betting heavy chalk in tennis is doomed. Anyway, I'll take a ride. This is in experimental phase and I'll put small amount on risk. There won't be picks every day, maybe one or two weekly but somehow I think I'll manage to profit of this. For beginning I'll put one unit (!) and accumulate the stake in further pick(s).
I do not encourage/recommend anyone to tail it, just to discuss and maybe we'll have some loughs.
Stay positive please and do not flame.

[brko]

1st pick

Petkovic (-400)

let's roll!

[rumple]

If you pick and choose it could work, but most people get greedy thinking all big chalk will win.

[brko]

1st pick

Petkovic (-400)

let's roll!

that's for 1 unit to win 0,25

[jojo85]

good luck, but choose your picks very carefully...

[brko]

i don't know what kind of game those two are playing (just tracking result on liveticker) but it seems to me the name of the game is "whoever-win-her-serve game-is-retarded"

the result in 1st game so far...4-4 (and 6 breakpoints)
insane!

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA is always a break fest.

[brko]

Benesova is on her knees!

[brko]

Winner!

[brko]

2nd pick

Wawrinka (-210)
stake: 1.25u

3rd pick
Azarenka (-370)
stake: 1.85u

let's roll!

[lasker]

I think you'll win both. GL!

[nicsbr]

gl tody

[brko]

so let me recap yesterday's plays. wawrinka shit the bed. not only his own but mine too for this experiment the intention was to pick winners and the profit from the pick to invest for next one. yesterday i was in a hurry so i placed 2 picks - wawrinka (-210) 1,25u which i counted already won so i staked 1,85 on azarenka. azarenka won so i'm -0,5u down. experiment could end here on the first obstacle for that was my intention - to roll on 1 unit as long as i can. i decided not to end it. because i wasn't all in and i'll just take another unit and put it on another heavy chalk fav of my choice. but i'll tweak it a little bit. i'm introducing new rule - odds will be -250 to -500 in the future. no need to be greedy. other aspects of picking favs are remaining intact. now, i'll take a look at todays matches if there's something interesting.

[brko]

experiment 2.0

pick#1
parlay: Federer & Zvonareva @ -157
for 1u

[HeeeHAWWWW]

For this to work you'll need to always get the best market price.

[brko]

Federer was walkover, so it is canceled bet, and Zvonareva won

so that's 1,4u for next pick.

unfortunately, next pick will be in September because i won't be around to find anything interesting.
good luck and have a good time.