After doing an analysis on the women players for the French Open, I am doing a similar write up for the men. Once again, I remind you that the draws are coming out on Friday and will have an impact on the outright prices. But having done analysis on the players before the draw comes out, you will be at an advantage once it is out.
Unlike the women competition, where there are plenty of players that have a shot at winning it, the situation with the men is completely different. Rafael Nadal is the heavy favorite at 1.42 (Pinnacle) and I don’t remember when was the last time a player was such a big favorite to win a Grand Slam. The low odds on Nadal will make it very hard for the bettor to hedge his futures plays, unless the Spaniard is out of the tournament. That is what happened last year after Soderling’s win over Nadal. The odds for players like Gonzales, Del Potro, Federer, and Soderling decreased dramatically and you could have made a good profit hedging your futures. This, however, is unlikely to happen as Nadal probably won’t lose at all, let alone before the final. With this being said, I still see some potential value plays.
Roger Federer – It has been 6 years since Federer lost before the semifinal of a grand slam. His last loss before a semifinal was in 2004 in the third round of the French Open to Kuerten. Given such a big series of amazing Grand Slam performances, it is hard to believe that Roger will lose before the semifinal. Moreover, out of the last four slams he has won three and reached the final of the fourth. Thus, I see some value in Federer at 6.15 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). The reason for him being undervalued is his horrendous performance since winning the Australian Open in January. He has lost in the early rounds to players like Gulbis, Montanes, Berdych and Baghdatis. However, these matches are of little predictive value, as Federer has implied many times that after becoming a father he will just focus on the grand slams. In the case of a final between Nadal and Federer, I see Rafa given odds of around 1.33. This will give you an opportunity to hedge your future and secure a profit of 9.3% regardless of the outcome of the match. You decide if it’s worth it.
Gael Monfils – Amazing competitor who can use the home court advantage to win lost matches. He should have been top 10 if it wasn’t for injuries. If he is healthy and confident, there is no reason why he shouldn’t reach the semifinal. However, he performed very poorly in Nice losing to Starace in straight sets so most people won’t see him as a treat. It looked to me that he was conserving energy so that match has little meaning. It is important to note that he has done very well in the past in the French Open. Last year, he got to the quarterfinals losing to the future champion Roger Federer. Undoubtedly, that’s his favorite tournament. Currently, you can get him at 285 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). If he gets to the quarterfinals you will be able to a get very good hedge opportunity, but if he gets to the semifinals that will be big money.
Good luck.
Unlike the women competition, where there are plenty of players that have a shot at winning it, the situation with the men is completely different. Rafael Nadal is the heavy favorite at 1.42 (Pinnacle) and I don’t remember when was the last time a player was such a big favorite to win a Grand Slam. The low odds on Nadal will make it very hard for the bettor to hedge his futures plays, unless the Spaniard is out of the tournament. That is what happened last year after Soderling’s win over Nadal. The odds for players like Gonzales, Del Potro, Federer, and Soderling decreased dramatically and you could have made a good profit hedging your futures. This, however, is unlikely to happen as Nadal probably won’t lose at all, let alone before the final. With this being said, I still see some potential value plays.
Roger Federer – It has been 6 years since Federer lost before the semifinal of a grand slam. His last loss before a semifinal was in 2004 in the third round of the French Open to Kuerten. Given such a big series of amazing Grand Slam performances, it is hard to believe that Roger will lose before the semifinal. Moreover, out of the last four slams he has won three and reached the final of the fourth. Thus, I see some value in Federer at 6.15 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). The reason for him being undervalued is his horrendous performance since winning the Australian Open in January. He has lost in the early rounds to players like Gulbis, Montanes, Berdych and Baghdatis. However, these matches are of little predictive value, as Federer has implied many times that after becoming a father he will just focus on the grand slams. In the case of a final between Nadal and Federer, I see Rafa given odds of around 1.33. This will give you an opportunity to hedge your future and secure a profit of 9.3% regardless of the outcome of the match. You decide if it’s worth it.
Gael Monfils – Amazing competitor who can use the home court advantage to win lost matches. He should have been top 10 if it wasn’t for injuries. If he is healthy and confident, there is no reason why he shouldn’t reach the semifinal. However, he performed very poorly in Nice losing to Starace in straight sets so most people won’t see him as a treat. It looked to me that he was conserving energy so that match has little meaning. It is important to note that he has done very well in the past in the French Open. Last year, he got to the quarterfinals losing to the future champion Roger Federer. Undoubtedly, that’s his favorite tournament. Currently, you can get him at 285 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). If he gets to the quarterfinals you will be able to a get very good hedge opportunity, but if he gets to the semifinals that will be big money.
Good luck.