French Open ATP Analysis

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  • noober
    SBR MVP
    • 10-23-09
    • 2012

    #1
    French Open ATP Analysis
    After doing an analysis on the women players for the French Open, I am doing a similar write up for the men. Once again, I remind you that the draws are coming out on Friday and will have an impact on the outright prices. But having done analysis on the players before the draw comes out, you will be at an advantage once it is out.

    Unlike the women competition, where there are plenty of players that have a shot at winning it, the situation with the men is completely different. Rafael Nadal is the heavy favorite at 1.42 (Pinnacle) and I don’t remember when was the last time a player was such a big favorite to win a Grand Slam. The low odds on Nadal will make it very hard for the bettor to hedge his futures plays, unless the Spaniard is out of the tournament. That is what happened last year after Soderling’s win over Nadal. The odds for players like Gonzales, Del Potro, Federer, and Soderling decreased dramatically and you could have made a good profit hedging your futures. This, however, is unlikely to happen as Nadal probably won’t lose at all, let alone before the final. With this being said, I still see some potential value plays.

    Roger Federer – It has been 6 years since Federer lost before the semifinal of a grand slam. His last loss before a semifinal was in 2004 in the third round of the French Open to Kuerten. Given such a big series of amazing Grand Slam performances, it is hard to believe that Roger will lose before the semifinal. Moreover, out of the last four slams he has won three and reached the final of the fourth. Thus, I see some value in Federer at 6.15 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). The reason for him being undervalued is his horrendous performance since winning the Australian Open in January. He has lost in the early rounds to players like Gulbis, Montanes, Berdych and Baghdatis. However, these matches are of little predictive value, as Federer has implied many times that after becoming a father he will just focus on the grand slams. In the case of a final between Nadal and Federer, I see Rafa given odds of around 1.33. This will give you an opportunity to hedge your future and secure a profit of 9.3% regardless of the outcome of the match. You decide if it’s worth it.

    Gael Monfils – Amazing competitor who can use the home court advantage to win lost matches. He should have been top 10 if it wasn’t for injuries. If he is healthy and confident, there is no reason why he shouldn’t reach the semifinal. However, he performed very poorly in Nice losing to Starace in straight sets so most people won’t see him as a treat. It looked to me that he was conserving energy so that match has little meaning. It is important to note that he has done very well in the past in the French Open. Last year, he got to the quarterfinals losing to the future champion Roger Federer. Undoubtedly, that’s his favorite tournament. Currently, you can get him at 285 (Betfair, with 5% commission included). If he gets to the quarterfinals you will be able to a get very good hedge opportunity, but if he gets to the semifinals that will be big money.

    Good luck.
  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2
    If Monfils gets to the QFs, I'll eat my left fist. I don't even need to see a draw for that piece of shit. I know he did his run last year without much lead-up, but he at least had shown in the Spring that he was in good shape. You can't polish anything he has done recently as such. I think the same as I did before, you either lay the chalk with Rafa or take the better odds on Roger. Draws will play a factor of course, but those are the two most likely guys to be playing on Sunday.
    Comment
    • Stacocakes
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-10-08
      • 7126

      #3
      Good writeup. Federer is always a player to watch out for at a slam of course. Agree with Eagles though that Monfils is a waste of money. He doesn't have the fitness to get through a 2 week best of five set tournament. Couple that with the fact that he never seems to give 100% in any of his matches and it seems like taking him as an outright is probably not the best play

      Will see what happens when the draws come out.Good luck Noober
      Comment
      • TennisBabe
        Restricted User
        • 02-08-10
        • 3565

        #4
        I'll wait for the draw before I say this with confidence, but I have a funny feeling Feds semi-final grand slam streak will end here. BTW I think this tournament will be a big money maker for dogs. Lots of top ranked players are not in form and could be out early. I'm already penciling in Nadal in the finals, and have a feeling we'll see a newcomer making his grand-slam final debut.
        Comment
        • noober
          SBR MVP
          • 10-23-09
          • 2012

          #5
          I still think Monfils will pull out the uspet and get to the quarters, unless he meets Rog or Rafa in the round of 16. Chance of that happening is 25%, as he is the 15th seed. He always does well in the French.
          Comment
          • Tsonga
            SBR MVP
            • 10-12-09
            • 2349

            #6
            What about monfils twin? He plays nadal first.
            Comment
            • noober
              SBR MVP
              • 10-23-09
              • 2012

              #7
              Originally posted by Tsonga
              What about monfils twin? He plays nadal first.


              His twin will be happy to escape the bagel(s).
              Comment
              • beefcake
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-26-09
                • 14029

                #8
                Over/Under 5.5 games won by Monfils lite vs Rafa..
                Comment
                • aceking
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-07-05
                  • 4782

                  #9
                  Federer or Nadal ?
                  Comment
                  • tailmypicks
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-09-09
                    • 1005

                    #10
                    anyone taking ernest gulbis for futures
                    Baba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me aya
                    Comment
                    • Nard Dog
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-18-10
                      • 315

                      #11
                      Fed got a decent draw but somehow I share TB's feelings that we won't be seeing him come semifinals time. I wouldn't even be surprised if Tipsarevic gives him a hard time in the 2nd round.
                      Comment
                      • noober
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-23-09
                        • 2012

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Nard Dog
                        Fed got a decent draw but somehow I share TB's feelings that we won't be seeing him come semifinals time. I wouldn't even be surprised if Tipsarevic gives him a hard time in the 2nd round.
                        Tipsarevic was batling a flue recently and I wouldn't be surprised if Falla takes him down in the first round.
                        Comment
                        • skodaka
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 05-22-10
                          • 133

                          #13
                          Good analysis, Thanks
                          Comment
                          • VOJVODINA
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 05-02-10
                            • 76

                            #14
                            JANKO TIPSAREVIC !!!
                            Comment
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