1. #1
    Maizey
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    Paula Badosa to win 2022 French Open

    Played her at 22/1. Still available at 20/1.

    She broke out in the spring clay court season and has backed it up with a very impressive hard court season, especially on the slower hard courts. I believe clay is still her best surface, although she claims it isn't her favorite.

    Lots of women at much shorter odds that shouldn't be like Swiatek, Sabalenka, Krejcikova, Osaka, Gauff, Serena, and even Raducanu.

    Lots of value IMO. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but if the tournament were to be played tomorrow, I believe only Barty and Halep would warrant shorter odds.

  2. #2
    wombat
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    Dude, that's like 7 months away lol. Anything can happen such as an injury. You forgot about the Australian Open, that's next up in January. I agree with you that she's playing outstanding tennis but so many more tournaments between now and French Open, why tie up your money and risk the chance of injury.

  3. #3
    wombat
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    Also, Halep is not going to get better odds. Sharp bettors know she is washed up. Swiatek much better on clay. Swiatek, Barty, and Krej will be the favorite.

  4. #4
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Also, Halep is not going to get better odds. Sharp bettors know she is washed up. Swiatek much better on clay. Swiatek, Barty, and Krej will be the favorite.
    One player could emerge from nowhere and win it.

  5. #5
    jtoler
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    amazing how she's top 10 just a big girl pretty basic player she must intimidate the other players

  6. #6
    Maizey
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Dude, that's like 7 months away lol. Anything can happen such as an injury. You forgot about the Australian Open, that's next up in January. I agree with you that she's playing outstanding tennis but so many more tournaments between now and French Open, why tie up your money and risk the chance of injury.
    Because the odds shrink the closer you get to the tournament. I'm betting that she goes off at a much lower price. Injuries are certainly a risk, but that's built into the better odds.

  7. #7
    Maizey
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Also, Halep is not going to get better odds. Sharp bettors know she is washed up. Swiatek much better on clay. Swiatek, Barty, and Krej will be the favorite.
    Halep has been hurt all year. If she is healthy, which is a big if, she still has enough game to contend on clay. I'll give you Swiatek being shorter odds, although she has somewhat lost her way recently. Barty will be and should be a favorite. Krej, I don't think so.

  8. #8
    Maizey
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    One player could emerge from nowhere and win it.
    Absolutely, and RG is notorious for that. My only other play for RG is a smaller play on the field, which at the book I played it at includes a lot of players.

  9. #9
    Maizey
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    amazing how she's top 10 just a big girl pretty basic player she must intimidate the other players
    Very basic. In fact, it's so basic that it's amazing. She relies on heavy and deep balls off both sides. She never hits slices, even when the opponent hits slices to her. Somehow she digs them out and returns them with topspin. You would think that players would get very comfortable with seeing the same ball coming back every time, but that isn't the case. If you watch her ball, it jumps up and at players, which makes it harder for them to go on the offensive. If she leaves a ball short, it gets torched, which is why she has to maintain her depth to stay on top.

    I think her very basic game is a big reason the lines haven't caught up with her results. She's won 8 straight matches and has been an underdog in 6 of them.

  10. #10
    wombat
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    If you like her at the French open, you might as well take her at the Australian Open. I actually think hard courts is her best surface because she has a power game. She overpowers her opponents from the baseline. She's not a better mover than Barty or Swiatek on clay so Aussie open would be her best chance imo.

  11. #11
    Maizey
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    Funny thing is she isn't even on the board at any of my books for the AO. She should be, but there is even less respect for her on hard courts. Most of the future odds came out right after the US Open, before she won Indian Wells and before her good start at the WTA finals. However, both of those are slower courts than the AO. Eventually she will find her way on the board for the AO, but I'm still much more confident in her clay court game. She was anywhere from 30/1 to 40/1 to win Indian Wells, so there was zero notice of her going into that tournament.

    You are right, she is not a great mover. She's decent side to side, not very good back to front, so she has to keep the opponent backed up. That's easier to do on clay with her heavy ball. She has power, but not at the same level as Osaka, Serena, Pliskova, Saby, etc. Those are the players that are tough to beat on faster hard courts.

  12. #12
    wombat
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    They haven't hung a line yet because they want to see what happens this week. I like Badosa's power better than Saba or Pliskova. It's more of a controlled power with way less unforced errors.

  13. #13
    Maizey
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    The books that have field bets may never put a line on her. Betonline doesn’t have a field bet so I suspect they eventually will.

    Sure, her more controlled power is better once the point is neutral, but Pliskova and Saby try to avoid long points at the expense of more errors. Plus they have the big serves that work better on faster courts. Badosa’s serve is above average, but not even close to the tour’s big severs.

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