Hop on Llodra early!

[Boner_18]

Look at this line -110, -110 (5dimes)! I think you should hop on Llodra now even if you don't like him, this thing should move in his favor and you can arb it off.

I think you should stay on Llodra anyway at -110. Wrote a blog for it and am going to publish it when I write up one more matchup.

[EaglesPhan36]

I disagree about where the line may go. I think Benneteau is likely to get more backing early at least because he is fresh off beating a big name today. Will be one to watch. Llodra has been hellacious on-serve this week with the Aces, but Benneteau is a tricky competitor. Over in the number of games might be in the best bet for this one if they keep it around 23, but I tend to think it will be higher since the books opened this as basically a pick 'em which would lend to people thinking it's a 3 setter or tight two setter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like you were right with the line so far. Llodra out to -119. I can see this drifting back and forth.

[Spanks]

[RobbReport]

toss up at this point, the way the line is moving. like when Granollers ****ed my life up that day with the match throwing. ****ing bitch.

[thirtytwo]

Yeah Loodra looks good. Nobody could break up his serve and volley this week. Benneteu isnt the best candidate to do so.

[RogueScholar]

I agree with EP36 about playing the Over games. This match could go either way, too hard to pick a winner.

[bigjonson]

I took Benny in the first set an benny to win.

I don't think Llorda pulls it off.

[cappinthepigs]

Over!

[varin18]

Go benny go

[Tsonga]

made a really small play on both of them to win 2-1...just don't want a blow-out.

[Boner_18]

Was wrong about the line, never got up to +110 on Benny. Like Llodra here (blogged it before the start) as he has been more consistent this tourney. Benneteau really had some not so hot stats in the win against Tsonga (most worse than Jo-Willy) he just won some important points. Also Llodra seems to lay it on the line here in Marseilles, losing as a finalist here last year... of course it's easy to say this up a break but its the same stuff i wrote last night. GL all, hopefully we can both cash.

[KingKolzig]

is this one guy serving into a mirror?

[EaglesPhan36]

What was the closing price on this one? Nice win for Llodra. Indoors in France, he's pretty backable ... watch him in his next tournament, could be a candidate for being overpriced and flaming out early.

[Boner_18]

Closing price was same as opening at 5dimes. Yeah, he has not shown much ability outside of his home country. Playing Jo-Wily in first round of Dubai but is at -305/+275 don't think there is a play there.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nah. Shame he doesn't draw a crappy opponent. On regular hard courts, Llodra is an average player at best. Simon-Baghdatis is an interesting one. Shows you how little they think of Simon at +210. Gonna tell you right now that I will probably play Simon at that price. I don't know if he's full recovered from the knee problem, but I think he only needs more matches under his belt if he's healthy. Baghdatis is as big an enigma right now, so Simon at those odds is a solid doggie for me. Read this interview too:

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle09.asp?xfile=data/theuae/2010/February/theuae_February642.xml&section=theuae

[Boner_18]

I started to handicap it and write something up (siding with Simon) and I couldn't bring myself to make it a play based on that article which I found too. To me it didn't seem that he was back on board with his play, and the results match. I DO think that in the near future he will be a good dog to back. But I am going to wait til he shows more signs of improvement, just not ready to right here.

[Boner_18]

If you like Simon to beat Baggy look at his future to win the tourney since I know you like the Davydenko fade too. He would beat Baggy, presumably could beat either Chidunelli or Devvarman and then would play Davy. At +5000 you could start taking value out by betting his opponent at Tsonga or Novak. I don't know if this is mathematically sound but at first glance it seems that if there is value there it is magnified in the futures market...

[RobbReport]

I like Dent as a dog today with Blake's frequent inconsistency.

[Boner_18]

I like Dent as a dog today with Blake's frequent inconsistency.

Thought about snagging Blake but backed off b/c I think the line is about right. If anything I would go Dent.

[RogueScholar]

I think Gilles Simon has a decent chance to take a set off Baggy, if not to win the match against a headcase of an opponent. My money's on Simon +3.5 games -115 (50Pennies).