Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic prediction for their Wimbledon semifinal match on Friday, July 11th:
Pick to win: Jannik Sinner (-210 via BetMGM)
"Unless you're Hugh Grant, you won't be able to sleep through this semifinal. To my chagrin, I bet against Sinner in the quarterfinal against Ben Shelton, figuring his injured elbow would derail his chances of winning his first Wimbledon title.
Well, he showed no ill effect from the right elbow, throttling Shelton for a sixth straight time. That leads me to believe he's playing at full capacity, which doesn't bode well for the seven-time Wimbledon champion.
While Sinner hasn't beaten Djokovic on grass yet, having lost the 2023 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2022 quarterfinal, he has dominated Djokovic recently, winning four straight.
Three of those victories came via straight sets. Most recently, Sinner swatted aside Djokovic in three sets in the 2025 French Open semifinal.
Excluding Sinner's bizarre and uncharacteristic performance against Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16 - in which he lost the first two sets - the Italian won 10 of the last 11 Grand Slam matches in straight sets.
That's a lot to overcome, even for a player many consider to be the Wimbledon GOAT."
Best prop bet: Over 38.5 games (-130 via Caesars)
"If Djokovic's quest for eight titles ends on Friday, he won't go down without making life uncomfortable for Sinner. While it might be a stretch to expect five sets, Djoker should win at least one.
In addition, each set should be more competitive than the first two when they played in the semifinals at the Australian Open last year, in which Sinner got off to a rampant 6-1, 6-2 start. That match had 38 games over four sets.
The sands of time are well and truly against Djokovic if he's to win his 25th major and eighth at Wimbledon. With that in mind, the Serbian will be highly motivated, throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at the silky smooth Sinner.
As long as Sinner's elbow holds strong, expect at least 39 games. Among our top sports betting apps, FanDuel, bet365, and BetMGM have a total set at 39.5, offering odds of -118, -120, and -125, respectively.
I've decided to opt for a buffer, taking Caesars' 38.5 games. BetMGM's odds for 38.5 games are -150, representing less value than Caesars' -130."
Pick to win: Jannik Sinner (-210 via BetMGM)
"Unless you're Hugh Grant, you won't be able to sleep through this semifinal. To my chagrin, I bet against Sinner in the quarterfinal against Ben Shelton, figuring his injured elbow would derail his chances of winning his first Wimbledon title.
Well, he showed no ill effect from the right elbow, throttling Shelton for a sixth straight time. That leads me to believe he's playing at full capacity, which doesn't bode well for the seven-time Wimbledon champion.
While Sinner hasn't beaten Djokovic on grass yet, having lost the 2023 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2022 quarterfinal, he has dominated Djokovic recently, winning four straight.
Three of those victories came via straight sets. Most recently, Sinner swatted aside Djokovic in three sets in the 2025 French Open semifinal.
Excluding Sinner's bizarre and uncharacteristic performance against Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16 - in which he lost the first two sets - the Italian won 10 of the last 11 Grand Slam matches in straight sets.
That's a lot to overcome, even for a player many consider to be the Wimbledon GOAT."
Best prop bet: Over 38.5 games (-130 via Caesars)
"If Djokovic's quest for eight titles ends on Friday, he won't go down without making life uncomfortable for Sinner. While it might be a stretch to expect five sets, Djoker should win at least one.
In addition, each set should be more competitive than the first two when they played in the semifinals at the Australian Open last year, in which Sinner got off to a rampant 6-1, 6-2 start. That match had 38 games over four sets.
The sands of time are well and truly against Djokovic if he's to win his 25th major and eighth at Wimbledon. With that in mind, the Serbian will be highly motivated, throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at the silky smooth Sinner.
As long as Sinner's elbow holds strong, expect at least 39 games. Among our top sports betting apps, FanDuel, bet365, and BetMGM have a total set at 39.5, offering odds of -118, -120, and -125, respectively.
I've decided to opt for a buffer, taking Caesars' 38.5 games. BetMGM's odds for 38.5 games are -150, representing less value than Caesars' -130."