My Original tennis picks

[JC1186]

I know I go on about this a lot but I hate it when ppl go on about how the bookies got it wrong when it has got nothing to do with them. It's the public that's affecting the line, not the bookies. Bookies made Groth the favourite but the public are betting on Kygrios which then makes the bookies have to adjust the lines and make Groth the dog.

True. I do know that. I've just developed a habit of using that expression.

[JC1186]

Lost in two tb's. Both poorly.

Had a couple bps in the first set. On the second one he had an easy volley putaway and he netted it.

Had 0-40 in the second set and chances in the tb only to fold.

[matt1216]

Lost in two tb's. Both poorly.

Had a couple bps in the first set. On the second one he had an easy volley putaway and he netted it.

Had 0-40 in the second set and chances in the tb only to fold.

Yeah I seen that... I'm not too upset about it, but I shoulda know if it came to a tiebreaker Groth would be in trouble. At the odds we both know it was worth a shot

[matt1216]

Absolute last play today, I think there's solid value/ percentage that this will hit:

2. Federer ML + Stepanek +1.5 sets Odds 2.10 x 2 units

medium risk here of course with the unknowns of how federer will come come out and how spot on lopez's serve will be. I think Federer will give it his all to win this tourney + he had a walk over against LU... A little more singles action will be solid for him. I actually see nishikori as the one holding back a bit here, as there's no points to defend and he's also still recovering from his injury. I expect federer to win in 2 sets if he avoids a slow start

i see stepanek coming out hard, chances to win a tourney at his age are going to be rare. I like his serve and volley game to give lopez a bit of problems. If lopez's serve is off I see him having troubles in this match... I expect lopez to win but in 3 sets today.

[matt1216]

5-5 -1.7 units

My #1 wager win but my 3 smaller ones lost. I shoulda went with my intial guy instinc on lopez ML, I hate it when that happens... Federer came thru fairly easily. Even though Groth lost I still thought there was some value there as well...

[SirtySree]

matt y u stop ur trend plays? from wat i recall, they were wat was keeping u afloat and ur own plays were holding u back bt then u decided to scrap the trend plays and go with ur own picks which is strange to me

[matt1216]

matt y u stop ur trend plays? from wat i recall, they were wat was keeping u afloat and ur own plays were holding u back bt then u decided to scrap the trend plays and go with ur own picks which is strange to me

Yeah, I think I'm going to add them in... Lopez 1st set ML was one of my trend plays. I have to stop over thinking things at times. I'll get back on track over the next few days..

[matt1216]

Three plays for the morning/today:

1. Ivanovic ML + Lopez +1.5 set Odds 1.80 x 3 units

2. Wickmayer +1.5 sets Odds 2.05 x 2 units

2. Paire 1st set Winner Odds 1.71 x 2 units

the top play is the larger of the three stakes. Play the final 2 picks small-medium stakes

GL

[unlearn]

Matty Mush, the Steve Stevens of tennis fades.

[Hardcoar]

[matt1216]

6-8 -3.3 units

1-2 once again I hit the big play but lost the two small plays... Paire 1st set was the deal breaker. That POS didn't even try. Better plays for tomorrow to come

[matt1216]

3 plays for tomorrow. I may add one final play later:

1. Lajovic +1.5 sets + Becker ML Odds 2.60 x 3 units

2. Karlovic 1st set ML Odds 1.71 x 2 units

2. Jovanovski 1st set ML Odds 2.15 x 2 units



GL

[ayororick]

ill be posting my plays here as this thread will be here until the end of the season. I know its a new thread and its not the first one ive had but I needed to start off on a fresh state of mind. I want to get back to what I did last summer with solid but limited plays. theres no bullshit with trends this time around, just my honest opinion/prediction. I will be posting 3 plays max, and I will number them in order of strength, 1-3. 1 unit equals 50$ Alright, lets get to the picks:

1. Riske +1.5 sets + Karlovic ML Odds 2.00 x 3 units

2. Koukalova ML Odds 1.80 x 2 units

3. Lopez ML + Flipkins ML Odds 2.10 x 1.5 units



GL

Only 3 days in and he's already broken the "only 3 plays max" rule. And judging by his post for Monday he's considering doing it again. New thread, same Matt.

[matt1216]

Only 3 days in and he's already broken the "only 3 plays max" rule. And judging by his post for Monday he's considering doing it again. New thread, same Matt.

If I see somethin good would you rather I not post it.... That's what I don't understand about people in here

[Semper Fidelis]

Matt just ignore the stupid trolls and haters here. Your picks and opinions are very appreciated, and I personally don't care how many picks you release every day. It seems you are struggling to do something to make everybody happy - screw that man, just be you. Trying to make everyone happy could adversely affect your capping, keeping you from posting winners or forcing plays because some lose. In all honesty I think that's why you've been in this little 'funk,' because you've been struggling with trying to release only your best plays but at the same time plays that you still feel strongly about hitting, all because others say you're a degenerate and release too many picks. I certainly can't speak for everyone, but I'd rather play several a day and have a higher % hit than only a few a day with ~50% hit. It's one if the first things we learn starting out betting sports - much better to release several plays every day and hit ~59 or 60% than only a few and hit ~65 or 70%.

Not trying to tell you to force out more plays or anything, just trying to urge you to do what feels best and natural to you. Most of these newbies were nowhere around when you went on that amazing heater last year, and when you finally do regain your form (because I know you will) and start hitting a high % of plays again, they will feel bad for doubting you. Just be you and use your instincts and gut and screw everyone else here - focusing on capping and not so much everyone else will help you get back to your normal winning ways faster.

Having said that, I am considering parlaying Lajovic, Mannarino -3.5, and Becker. I feel good about this hitting, and you get very decent payout as well!

[bababooey13]

I am considering parlaying Lajovic, Mannarino -3.5, and Becker. I feel good about this hitting, and you get very decent payout as well!

likin that parlay. id prob take out mannarino, but goodluck bossman.

[matt1216]

likin that parlay. id prob take out mannarino, but goodluck bossman.

Mannarino has been solid Bababooey... Worth playin bud

[matt1216]

Matt just ignore the stupid trolls and haters here. Your picks and opinions are very appreciated, and I personally don't care how many picks you release every day. It seems you are struggling to do something to make everybody happy - screw that man, just be you. Trying to make everyone happy could adversely affect your capping, keeping you from posting winners or forcing plays because some lose. In all honesty I think that's why you've been in this little 'funk,' because you've been struggling with trying to release only your best plays but at the same time plays that you still feel strongly about hitting, all because others say you're a degenerate and release too many picks. I certainly can't speak for everyone, but I'd rather play several a day and have a higher % hit than only a few a day with ~50% hit. It's one if the first things we learn starting out betting sports - much better to release several plays every day and hit ~59 or 60% than only a few and hit ~65 or 70%.

Not trying to tell you to force out more plays or anything, just trying to urge you to do what feels best and natural to you. Most of these newbies were nowhere around when you went on that amazing heater last year, and when you finally do regain your form (because I know you will) and start hitting a high % of plays again, they will feel bad for doubting you. Just be you and use your instincts and gut and screw everyone else here - focusing on capping and not so much everyone else will help you get back to your normal winning ways faster.

Having said that, I am considering parlaying Lajovic, Mannarino -3.5, and Becker. I feel good about this hitting, and you get very decent payout as well!

thanks man, I've been trying to post winners and keeping the negativity to a minimum... I have to keep positive. I try to post 3 plays a day, idea is to win 2 of them for sure. I remember last year I posted roughly 5 small plays and I would aim for 3 winners minimum. Hopefully I won't be to far off now.

[matt1216]

Also I think lajovic can beat Pospisil but becareful as he has never won on grass courts yet. 0-5 I believe, with that being said I think he takes a set.

[matt1216]

adding a play:

2. Johnson ML 1.80 x 2 units

I like this play here, he has a good record on grass courts, he will hold serve vs De Shepper but Johnson's return game is better. With Johnson owning the head to head he knows he can win this.


GL

[fitguy67]

Matt just ignore the stupid trolls and haters here. Your picks and opinions are very appreciated, and I personally don't care how many picks you release every day. It seems you are struggling to do something to make everybody happy - screw that man, just be you. Trying to make everyone happy could adversely affect your capping, keeping you from posting winners or forcing plays because some lose. In all honesty I think that's why you've been in this little 'funk,' because you've been struggling with trying to release only your best plays but at the same time plays that you still feel strongly about hitting, all because others say you're a degenerate and release too many picks. I certainly can't speak for everyone, but I'd rather play several a day and have a higher % hit than only a few a day with ~50% hit. It's one if the first things we learn starting out betting sports - much better to release several plays every day and hit ~59 or 60% than only a few and hit ~65 or 70%.

Not trying to tell you to force out more plays or anything, just trying to urge you to do what feels best and natural to you. Most of these newbies were nowhere around when you went on that amazing heater last year, and when you finally do regain your form (because I know you will) and start hitting a high % of plays again, they will feel bad for doubting you. Just be you and use your instincts and gut and screw everyone else here - focusing on capping and not so much everyone else will help you get back to your normal winning ways faster.

Having said that, I am considering parlaying Lajovic, Mannarino -3.5, and Becker. I feel good about this hitting, and you get very decent payout as well!

damn, had to look at this twice...thought maybe i'd changed my avatar and screen name and started using capital letters and periods again...

all the hallmarks of the recessive "chronically comprehensive" gene are there...really aren't too many of us on sbr

good post, SF

BTW, still debating whether to follow your parlay as is...or with the bababouvian attenuation...probably based on the well-documented high MPC (marginal propensity to choke) of the French...especially those whose surnames start with an "M" (think about it!)

[Semper Fidelis]

I hope none of you tailed because Lajovic sucked it up - I'll give him the excuse of the rain delay since he was on serve and looking fine in the 2nd set until then. I played Mannarino spread small - of course the French choking aspect is constantly in the back of my mind, but he looked pretty good last week, and hopefully should have no problem with Ebden, who we all know is a pretty bad choker himself. Now just looking for someone to parlay the Frenchman ML with. Perhaps stick with Becker? Seems there should be an easier pick besides him though...

[matt1216]

I hope none of you tailed because Lajovic sucked it up - I'll give him the excuse of the rain delay since he was on serve and looking fine in the 2nd set until then. I played Mannarino spread small - of course the French choking aspect is constantly in the back of my mind, but he looked pretty good last week, and hopefully should have no problem with Ebden, who we all know is a pretty bad choker himself. Now just looking for someone to parlay the Frenchman ML with. Perhaps stick with Becker? Seems there should be an easier pick besides him though...

Yeah I put Becker back in there... Rough start for me but I shoulda know with lajovic never winning a grass match yet

[matt1216]

Adding:

2. Mannarino ML + Becker ML Odds 2.35 x 2 units


GL

[fitguy67]

best pure parlay fodder right now is Ram @1.6-ish over Bozoljac
starts in a few minutes, 1035
i hate relying on Becker to deliver...it's like relying on MonaBarthel or Meusburger to close out a parlay for you
___________

best value on the board right now is caGarcia @2.625 over Stephens at lad (anything over 2.4 is still solid)

better than a coinflip IMO...Garcia always shows up, and already has bigger scalps than this one who shows up when she feels like it

[matt1216]

Yeah I got ram as well with Germany/Portugal over 2.5 goals.... Good luck fitguy

[fitguy67]

Yeah I got ram as well with Germany/Portugal over 2.5 goals.... Good luck fitguy

hopefully ram takes care of business as he usually does...and in time for me to rollover into your WC bet...ride or die together

[pattymayo]

If I see somethin good would you rather I not post it.... That's what I don't understand about people in here

But why do you even bother prefacing all your new threads with "this time I'm going to be more selective" or "three plays a day max"

You've had 20 plays already in this threads 4 day existence

I wish you'd just make 1 thread and in your first post say: "I'm a degenerate tennis gambler who will make tons of picks per day even if I say otherwise, most simply for action and I might make up BS trends to go with it and maybe lie about my unit size. Oh, and if this thread starts off bad, I'm going to create a new one. That's me, either follow me or don't"

It's annoying to see you always act like "this time will be different" yet after day 1 it's the same action junkie Matt. Be honest with yourself and with us and you'll get more respect

[fitguy67]

I wish you'd just make 1 thread and in your first post say: "I'm a degenerate tennis gambler who will make tons of picks per day even if I say otherwise, most simply for action and I might make up BS trends to go with it and maybe lie about my unit size. Oh, and if this thread starts off bad, I'm going to create a new one. That's me, either follow me or don't"

I'm conflicted...didn't know whether to praise this (on the basis of the accuracy of its content) as

TLOS ("tough love on steroids") paragraph of the year candidate

__________________

or ridicule it (on the basis of the petty motivations that underpin its tone) as

SOCADR ("sufferers of chronic adult diaper rash) paragraph of the year candidate
______________

it's obvious from all of this poster's "contributions" that he's definitely "smarter than the average bear"...shame about all the mean-spirited smart-assery that underlies most of his visits to others' threads

people like matt are an asset around here...if he singles out lots of plays...it can be seen as preparing a longer "short list" of sorts for us to consider...i definitely don't submit each as a mindless automaton (in particular, i ignore the play sizes)...i look into almost anything he posts, though, at least briefly...then decide to stand aside, tail, or fade (in that order of frequency)...

people attempting to cramp others' styles (and, in matt's case, regularly violating each of his new thread's titles and post#1 guidelines, and claiming that "this one'll be different" IS part of his "style"...we all know that by now...you're not revealing anything we didn't already know..)...

anyhow, attempting to cramp another thread's style like this...adds nothing...

run your own thread the way you see fit, but let others do the same...

if you have any suggestions, deliver them in a civil manner...
(see my appeal for bet-size sanity on the previous page)...
no need to attack someone's being to make a point

otherwise you just come off as as whiny twat

______________

reading assignment: broadie's post right below mine...

verbose-->>concise versions of the same sentiment

[brodie]

But why do you even bother prefacing all your new threads with "this time I'm going to be more selective" or "three plays a day max"

You've had 20 plays already in this threads 4 day existence

I wish you'd just make 1 thread and in your first post say: "I'm a degenerate tennis gambler who will make tons of picks per day even if I say otherwise, most simply for action and I might make up BS trends to go with it and maybe lie about my unit size. Oh, and if this thread starts off bad, I'm going to create a new one. That's me, either follow me or don't"

It's annoying to see you always act like "this time will be different" yet after day 1 it's the same action junkie Matt. Be honest with yourself and with us and you'll get more respect

how about you just dont check the fukking thread? seriously patty fuk off, make your own thread stop worrying about matt

[matt1216]

Though day today...... Soccer keeping head above water.... Shoulda known that Tall skinny bastard Karlovic and that French excuse for a tennis player Mannarino would fck shit up.... I will update the record later

[ayororick]

But why do you even bother prefacing all your new threads with "this time I'm going to be more selective" or "three plays a day max"

You've had 20 plays already in this threads 4 day existence

I wish you'd just make 1 thread and in your first post say: "I'm a degenerate tennis gambler who will make tons of picks per day even if I say otherwise, most simply for action and I might make up BS trends to go with it and maybe lie about my unit size. Oh, and if this thread starts off bad, I'm going to create a new one. That's me, either follow me or don't"

It's annoying to see you always act like "this time will be different" yet after day 1 it's the same action junkie Matt. Be honest with yourself and with us and you'll get more respect

There is a lot of nonsense spoken on this forum but this is one of the most accurate things I've read on here. You're saying what we're all thinking. Nothing personal against Matt, just want him to tell it like it is.

[matt1216]

7-12 -10.1 Uunits

[Semper Fidelis]

I apologize Matt, I feel like I forced you to make a play with Mannarino. Was at work so didn't see the match so don't know if he choked or what, was just basing it on the fact that he played very well last week, and Ebden is a pussy scrub like we all know. I suppose from now on in these situations it's always better to take the dog and expect the Frenchman to choke over the Aussie! My bad guys, especially Matt.

I would say I like Lu as well as a few other dogs, but I don't want to screw anyone over into making bad plays! It's pretty obvious I don't know tennis as well as I thought, and I know that mostly has to do with being unable to watch any matches from working all the time, though I still try to watch the replays on the tennis channel when they show it to get a feel for how they are playing.

[unlearn]

LMAO another thread in the tank. Time for a new one