Big Play - Tsonga/Rochus

[Tsonga]

Got this at -697. Taking Tsonga with 4 units on this one. I think he will blow Rochus away - Rochus does not have the game to play with Tsonga despite his recent success. I would be blown away if Tsonga loses here. Its being played in France so Tsonga has the home crowd which he loves. Tsonga wants this tournament to get into the finals as well. Tsonga beat Rochus' brother Christophe who plays a similar game 6-2,6-2,6-2 on clay. Tsonga beat O. Rochus at Lyon in '07 6-3. 6-2. winning 96% of his first serve.

The best player Rochus has beaten lately is F. Lopez and he is not in the same league as Tsonga. Rochus has lost 9/10 matches against top ten players. I'd say this is pretty close to a lock...heavy play for me. Win

[GoldRush7]

so what exactly will 4 units win you?

[Mendozaaaa]

It'll win him 0.57 units!

[Mendozaaaa]

Surely the better play would be Tsonga 2-0 or under the total games played spread??!

[Tsonga]

i would go 2-0 if it was offered...I just think this is a win - i could go miss 5 units on underdogs like some have recommended...i like to pick some winners sometimes though.

[Mendozaaaa]

Fair enough! Just thinking if it's that strong of a play, why only 4 units? Anyway, good luck with your pick champ!

[Dink87522]

Not worth it as far as the odds are I see.

Tsonga $1.10

He'll probably win but the risk isn't work it for such low odds.

Not to mention that as a user called 'Tsonga'; some bias is obviously coming into play.

[ryanvick]

gl, I'm running with chalk also, 1st up Stakhovsky -350, to win 2U

[shantystar]

its rochus day !

[ryanvick]

gl, adding for 1U also

[Tsonga]

Bias - Everyone has it

Not worth it as far as the odds are I see.

Tsonga $1.10

He'll probably win but the risk isn't work it for such low odds.

Not to mention that as a user called 'Tsonga'; some bias is obviously coming into play.

But - I will say that Tsonga is my favorite tennis player - but that doesn't mean I bet on him to win every match. Everyone has a bias on every subject - but its about whether there is a foundation/solid reason for that bias.

This recent one was a mismatch. Every once in a while I take someone who I really think is going to smoke someone - and this was one of those times....I have been wrong before. I took Del Potro over 158 ranked Edouard Roger-Vasselin and that one hurt me for a few units.