Fed/Djokovic

[EaglesPhan36]

4:30pm ET on CBS. I think Federer will win, but his lazy finish vs. Soderling should give Djokovic a little hope. I'm going with the OVER on the # of games at 38. If Djokovic plays consistently, he should snag one set. I'm hoping this plays like their last U.S. Open encounter with some tight sets, Federer won in 4. Djokovic did get smashed in Cincinnati in two sets by Fed, 6-1, 7-5 last time they played. Looking at Fed this tournament, Soderling and Hewitt are the only players who took sets off him and both of those played into the 40s for # of games.


Anyone want the UNDER at 38 games played? 10 SBR points to me if they go OVER 38. 13 to you if it goes UNDER 38. PUSH if it lands on 38 and no action. First reply gets the action.

[Hybris]

I like the +5.5 for Djokovic here, guess that over bet is pretty solid aswell so no thanks

[yisman]

I'm taking Djokovic + the spread and the over.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good 1st set for the over. Both broke the other in successive games, back on serve at 4-3 with Federer serving. Would like to see a 7-5 or 7-6 here with Djokovic taking it hopefully to keep his confidence up.

[Hybris]

Omg the ref is on federer

[EaglesPhan36]

High quality points here in this game after the stupid call from the ump.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think if Djokovic takes this 1st set, he's going to push Federer hard today. You can see right now that he's into this match & has belief that he can win. Losing this first set in a breaker would hurt his confidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st set to Federer: 7-6 (7-3). OVER bet is pretty much won or lost on this next set I think. Djokovic can't fall apart here, if he can get the 2nd set he can keep grinding. If he loses the 2nd, he'll probably let Fed finish him off in 3. Interesting to see how he responds after a very flat tie break effort.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough breaks for Djokovic in the 2nd set, he's trying not to get frustrated, but even when he makes great plays, Federer gets some dumb luck on a net chord for a point. 7-6, 7-5. OVER is pretty much done (tie break could push) unless Fed loses his focus like he did against Soderling, don't see it here though because Djokovic has played well and kept this real tight - he just can't catch a break.

[Hybris]

oh my...you need luck to beat Federer and Djokovic doesnt have that today

[EaglesPhan36]

Ridiculous between the legs winner for Federer. Djokovic played about as good a match as he was capable of playing and loses, 7-6, 7-5, 7-5. Over gets boned just barely. Federer should be at least a -250 favorite against Del Potro after today. DelPo would do well to not have watched any of that match. I hope DelPo puts up a fight and at least wins a set to make things interesting. I think he has the game to do it.

[Hybris]

Yeah that was sick to watch. If you are right about the price I´m all over Del Potro tomorrow

[EaglesPhan36]

Well considering he was what -400 against Djokovic, -250 is a moderate guess. I think Del Potro has earned the respect to not be considered a walkover against anyone on this surface, but with the pedigree, etc. - Federer will command a heavy price. I'm interested to see if the public respects Del Potro or just thinks he beat a hurt Nadal.

[yisman]

oh my...you need luck to beat Federer and Djokovic doesnt have that today

Exactly.

Ridiculous between the legs winner for Federer. Djokovic played about as good a match as he was capable of playing and loses, 7-6, 7-5, 7-5. Over gets boned just barely. Federer should be at least a -250 favorite against Del Potro after today. DelPo would do well to not have watched any of that match. I hope DelPo puts up a fight and at least wins a set to make things interesting. I think he has the game to do it.

I hope he watched. Always better to watch and learn.

Well considering he was what -400 against Djokovic, -250 is a moderate guess. I think Del Potro has earned the respect to not be considered a walkover against anyone on this surface, but with the pedigree, etc. - Federer will command a heavy price. I'm interested to see if the public respects Del Potro or just thinks he beat a hurt Nadal.

Yeah, should be in the -250 to -300 range.

[EaglesPhan36]

-308 at Pinny. I have DelPo +1100 to win the Open, so I pretty much am stuck between a rock and a hard place. I'm not gonna waste time backing Fed at -300. Only hedge worth it would be to guess Fed in the right number of sets.

[Hybris]

Damn I need an Pinnacle acc +301 are u kidding me?