Roger Federer's reign at mercy of rain
The rain that has been falling at Flushing Meadows provides some needed rest for Rafael Nadal in the short term, but could also have him worn out before his expected meeting with Roger Federer.
The most valuable commodity in New York? Rainfall.
Every inch of rain that falls over the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center is money in the pockets of Rafael Nadal supporters. His U.S. Open quarterfinal match with No. 11 Fernando Gonzalez was suspended Thursday night due to inclement weather; the first set went to Nadal in a tiebreaker (7-4), and the No. 3 seed was up 3-2 in the second set tiebreaker when play was halted.
The downpour continued into Friday and forced the continued postponement of the remaining Open matches into the weekend. Weather reports at press time called for Saturday morning showers, perhaps letting up in the afternoon, and clear skies by Sunday. This is huge for Nadal because of his physical condition – not just the tendinitis in his knees that kept him off the ATP Tour for most of the summer, but also because of an abdominal injury Nadal suffered last month in Cincinnati. He took an injury time-out after winning the first set Thursday and appeared to be in pain while a trainer attended to Nadal’s stomach.
The rest should improve Nadal’s chances to put away Gonzalez and secure a payday for everyone who bought in at betting odds of -500. Those who preferred the underdog at +330 are considerably less happy. Gonzalez was putting Nadal to the test with a first serve that occasionally topped 130 mph. Although both players held serve throughout, Nadal won his games in fairly short order while repeatedly extending Gonzalez to deuce. But could the four-time French Open champion maintain that level of performance given his injury situation? That’s the $330 question that has essentially been rendered moot.
And now, the other side of the coin. The rain delay might help Nadal in the short term but it also makes it more challenging for him to go on and win the tournament. Provided he defeats Gonzalez, Nadal will have a very short turnaround time between the end of that match and the start of his semifinal against No. 6 Juan Martin del Potro. The 20-year-old Argentine sensation is resting comfortably after defeating No. 13 Marin Cilic in four sets on Thursday, before play was suspended.
Bettors have already recognized this dilemma by moving Del Potro from 6-1 to 5-1 on the Open futures market. Nadal slipped from 9-2 to 11-2 in the first 24 hours after rain halted play. There’s also the matter of Del Potro’s recent success against Nadal: back-to-back victories on the ATP Tour at Miami and Montreal, after Nadal had taken each of their previous four encounters.
Organizers at Flushing Meadows have reportedly scheduled the Nadal-Gonzalez match to continue on Saturday at noon Eastern. The men’s semis would then be played on Sunday with the championship match on Monday. We’ll see if the weather allows. The other semifinal pits No. 1 Roger Federer against No. 4 Novak Djokovic; Federer is a -450 favorite in this matchup and 1-2 to win his sixth consecutive U.S. Open. Djokovic is +300 versus Federer and 10-1 to go all the way. Both men have been idle since Wednesday.
The same sharps who see value in Del Potro will be interested in Djokovic. He’s another one of the young guns in the men’s draw, a 22-year-old native of Belgrade who prefers the hard court, where he defeated Federer in straight sets en route to taking the 2008 Australian Open. Federer returned the favor at last year’s U.S. Open, but Djokovic has taken two of their three ATP Tour matches this year, at Miami and at Rome. That makes them even at 4-4 since mid-2007. Federer was 4-0 against Djokovic up to that point.
The women’s semifinals are also penciled in for Saturday, with No. 2 Serena Williams (-250) facing comeback kid Kim Clijsters (+180) and No. 9 Caroline Wozniacki (-500) matched up against Yanina Wickmayer (+330). Williams is 7-1 lifetime against Clijsters, while Wozniacki had three easy wins over Wickmayer on the junior circuit.
The rain that has been falling at Flushing Meadows provides some needed rest for Rafael Nadal in the short term, but could also have him worn out before his expected meeting with Roger Federer.
The most valuable commodity in New York? Rainfall.
Every inch of rain that falls over the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center is money in the pockets of Rafael Nadal supporters. His U.S. Open quarterfinal match with No. 11 Fernando Gonzalez was suspended Thursday night due to inclement weather; the first set went to Nadal in a tiebreaker (7-4), and the No. 3 seed was up 3-2 in the second set tiebreaker when play was halted.
The downpour continued into Friday and forced the continued postponement of the remaining Open matches into the weekend. Weather reports at press time called for Saturday morning showers, perhaps letting up in the afternoon, and clear skies by Sunday. This is huge for Nadal because of his physical condition – not just the tendinitis in his knees that kept him off the ATP Tour for most of the summer, but also because of an abdominal injury Nadal suffered last month in Cincinnati. He took an injury time-out after winning the first set Thursday and appeared to be in pain while a trainer attended to Nadal’s stomach.
The rest should improve Nadal’s chances to put away Gonzalez and secure a payday for everyone who bought in at betting odds of -500. Those who preferred the underdog at +330 are considerably less happy. Gonzalez was putting Nadal to the test with a first serve that occasionally topped 130 mph. Although both players held serve throughout, Nadal won his games in fairly short order while repeatedly extending Gonzalez to deuce. But could the four-time French Open champion maintain that level of performance given his injury situation? That’s the $330 question that has essentially been rendered moot.
And now, the other side of the coin. The rain delay might help Nadal in the short term but it also makes it more challenging for him to go on and win the tournament. Provided he defeats Gonzalez, Nadal will have a very short turnaround time between the end of that match and the start of his semifinal against No. 6 Juan Martin del Potro. The 20-year-old Argentine sensation is resting comfortably after defeating No. 13 Marin Cilic in four sets on Thursday, before play was suspended.
Bettors have already recognized this dilemma by moving Del Potro from 6-1 to 5-1 on the Open futures market. Nadal slipped from 9-2 to 11-2 in the first 24 hours after rain halted play. There’s also the matter of Del Potro’s recent success against Nadal: back-to-back victories on the ATP Tour at Miami and Montreal, after Nadal had taken each of their previous four encounters.
Organizers at Flushing Meadows have reportedly scheduled the Nadal-Gonzalez match to continue on Saturday at noon Eastern. The men’s semis would then be played on Sunday with the championship match on Monday. We’ll see if the weather allows. The other semifinal pits No. 1 Roger Federer against No. 4 Novak Djokovic; Federer is a -450 favorite in this matchup and 1-2 to win his sixth consecutive U.S. Open. Djokovic is +300 versus Federer and 10-1 to go all the way. Both men have been idle since Wednesday.
The same sharps who see value in Del Potro will be interested in Djokovic. He’s another one of the young guns in the men’s draw, a 22-year-old native of Belgrade who prefers the hard court, where he defeated Federer in straight sets en route to taking the 2008 Australian Open. Federer returned the favor at last year’s U.S. Open, but Djokovic has taken two of their three ATP Tour matches this year, at Miami and at Rome. That makes them even at 4-4 since mid-2007. Federer was 4-0 against Djokovic up to that point.
The women’s semifinals are also penciled in for Saturday, with No. 2 Serena Williams (-250) facing comeback kid Kim Clijsters (+180) and No. 9 Caroline Wozniacki (-500) matched up against Yanina Wickmayer (+330). Williams is 7-1 lifetime against Clijsters, while Wozniacki had three easy wins over Wickmayer on the junior circuit.