Someone stay in this thread and talk me through rublev ruud

[degennn]

There is a massive play here.

Rublev just went through 2 grueling matches. Rublev is less effective on clay...slower surface blah blah blah.

Low totals....ruud o/u at 10...very confusing.

I think ruud can win here...

Rublev was +1900
Tsitsi was +900....outright nasal-144 joker +200ish for reference.

Diego schwartzman was +2000 but I guess they were both on Nadal's side of the bracket....

Ruud beat schwartzman who is a very good player on clay... PBA who's been on a solid win streak but one could say hes played alot of matches due to winning. Fognini in straight sets...who seemed fairly motivated and competent this tourney. One could argue fognini forehand vs rublev forehand on this surface is comparable...


Why is the over 21.5 and not the usual 22 in most cases or higher.

Ruud in straight sets? Under?

Someone talk me through this.

[degennn]

Is the hook at 21.5 to make us second guess what seems like a very obvious over?

[degennn]

Or is rublev so good he beat nadal and he should cruise through ruud...that seems like the picture being painted...which means the over is a pound play...

[wombat]

I don't know why everyone thinks Rublev is not good on clay. He's 88-50 lifetime on clay which is the same win percentage he has on hardcourts. He's equally as devastating on clay.

[wombat]

Oddsmakers are making Rublev the favorite in the final versus Tsitsipas which is very interesting given that tsitsi is very strong on clay.