WTA Charleston

[bsutphi]

8714 Ashleigh Barty -125 for Game

8710 N Osaka -145 for Game

8708 M Keys -145 for Game

8706 S Errani -170 for Game

Gavrilova couldn't get the job done yesterday at + money, but I'll still take 4-1 most days.

Keys: I'm very intrigued by this Keys Giorgi match. Both of these girls absolutely crush the ball. Keys played so well 1st set yesterday, then caught the unforced error bug in the 2nd. If she can keep the errors down, she should win.

Osaka: I'm loving Osaka in this spot. She's playing the best tennis of her career. She wins Indiana Wells, then she gets bounced early in Miami. So, late-week fatigue shouldn't be an issue here. I sometimes look to fade players when they've reached far in multiple tournament consecutive weeks with lots of travel. Goerges, on the other hand, has been quite inconsistent since withdrawing in Doha with a hip injury a couple months ago.

Errani and Barty: not much to say here. I trust Errani on clay and Para hasn't shown me enough to prove she's worth betting on, especially at only +150 dog. And I'll take Barty at -125 against anyone left in the field, except maybe Keys. I'll be interested to see what the line is if both she and Kasatkina advance. I'm guessing Barty will be a moderately decent underdog.

[Honeybadger44]

Barty favored over anyone left in the field? Hmm... Well, she has a lot of skill, there was never any doubt about that. But mentally she's just not in the same league with some of the better players. Sometimes it seems almost like she can't wait for something weird to happen, so she can get down on herself and have an excuse to lose next 8 games in a row. Loss vs Svitolina last week is a great example. Dominant in every aspect throughout most of the first set. And then one point doesn't go the way it should for her, and she is just not able to put that behind and move on, causing a turnaround and win for Svitolina.

[bsutphi]

To be clear, I certainly don’t think she’ll be favored against everyone left in the field, and I don’t like her “against the field” at -125. That would be ludicrous. I said I would take her at -125 the rest of the tournament for each of her matches except keys. And she’ll obviously be a dog against kasatkina, and I’ll gladly take her as a dog there. I understand, I’m a lot higher on her than other folks. Yes, she’s young an unproven on the big stage, but she really doesn’t have many weaknesses, aside from occasional nerves. But like I said, she’s young and still getting better. I think she’ll take a big step this year and put herself on the map. Heck, this is women’s tennis. Would I be shocked if she lost to sevastova today? Certainly not. But I think she’s very undervalued at this stage of her career. And I’ll be looking to play on her a lot this year as long as she stays healthy, depending on the matchup obviously.

[Honeybadger44]

I understood what you were trying to say. And I can see you really like her potential and upside. Thing is, having a high ceiling and potential to become one of top players eventually doesn't really do anything to improve her chances to win today. She is what she is, if you know what I'm trying to say.

[flabrah5]

Osaka.... I've got a bad feeling about this (Jaws movie voice).

I really do, I was going to put 1500$ on it but my big plays sometimes fail so hard and quick.

Osaka held off a tougher match than some might think yesterday. Saved many many break points and came back on a 10-8 2nd set tiebreaker win.

I'm fading myself on this bc this is when I historically get burried on such a fishy line.

Keys and Errani all day. Keys might take the tourney down.

BOL to all!

[Honeybadger44]

She did have a tough match, but you gotta acknowledge that Siegmund is pretty damn good. Not as powerful as some of the other girls, but has some great timing on her shots/return, moves well and has one of the best dropshots. That was not an easy test for Osaka by any stretch of the imagination. I think she'll like playing Goerges much more. Just straight up power hitting contest. And I like her chances in that one, considering Goerges is not in best form atm.

I'm not really sure what's up with the Keys hype. That usually happen to people that haven't watched her before and then get super impressed with her power once they watch her game. But more you watch her, the more you realize that she has a lot of flaws in her game. One day she'll hit 40 winners and next day she'll put as many shots in the stands. No consistency whatsoever.
She has a better serve then GIorgi, but Camila when on can put a lot of pressure on the opponent from the baseline. She has that quick swing and generates a lot of power with it. It takes away time from the opponent, and she can also hit sharp angles with it.

[flabrah5]

I agree with Keys. Her 1st set was what you mentioned and her 2nd showed how she can crumble.

She just had to be on, but I like the harder clay surface in Charleston for her compared to the red.

I just put $300 on Goerges. I loved her post match interview. "I'm happy and good things happen when you're happy." Something like that. Feeling the positive vibes.

[Conqueror]

The line I find fishy is the Keys line. Osaka should be able to deal the blow against Goerges, who isn't in the best of shape at the moment.

[Honeybadger44]

I agree with Keys. Her 1st set was what you mentioned and her 2nd showed how she can crumble.

She just had to be on, but I like the harder clay surface in Charleston for her compared to the red.

I just put $300 on Goerges. I loved her post match interview. "I'm happy and good things happen when you're happy." Something like that. Feeling the positive vibes.

Maybe she's in love. There's little about her tennis that she can be happy about lately. I mean, it's still ok, but not as good comparing to her performances earlier this year.

[flabrah5]

Hahah love will do that to you (see Caro W)

That timing warning was BS. Got her on edge. Looks like she's feeding off of it.

[DR225]

I honestly hate the WTA. Osaka loses the tiebreak and her coach says that she doesn't look like she wants to be here. And Osaka flat out says she doesn't want to be here lol....Then he starts saying they worked so hard and she has three people in her box that believe in her and then she starts crying. Why do we bet on this shit?

[flabrah5]

I honestly hate the WTA. Osaka loses the tiebreak and her coach says that she doesn't look like she wants to be here. And Osaka flat out says she doesn't want to be here lol....Then he starts saying they worked so hard and she has three people in her box that believe in her and then she starts crying. Why do we bet on this shit?

This is why I faded myself. Sometimes you have to. Osaka was due and this tournament was one where I felt she wouldn't go deep. She's been hustling so hard. Should have not played like Sloane Stephens and took a break. She was getting cocky.

[DR225]

And now Osaka loses the next eight points and gets broken to love. I agree that expectations for Osaka shouldn't have been high after Indian Wells and that sometimes athletes don't feel like competing. And it's fine to think and feel that but to actually voice it with cameras around...That's just crazy.

[xdodger19]

Coach says well you are playing a good player
i was thinking the over before match

[flabrah5]

Errani with the break back. Need this to go quick.

[flabrah5]

And now Osaka loses the next eight points and gets broken to love. I agree that expectations for Osaka shouldn't have been high after Indian Wells and that sometimes athletes don't feel like competing. And it's fine to think and feel that but to actually voice it with cameras around...That's just crazy.

Agreed. I just had that feeling shed eventually be like "this tournament isn't worth it." She got so much hype lately she's been self inflated (and rightfully so she dominated some crazy players).

That being said, her attitude today cost her.

[Conqueror]

This is why I faded myself. Sometimes you have to. Osaka was due and this tournament was one where I felt she wouldn't go deep. She's been hustling so hard. Should have not played like Sloane Stephens and took a break. She was getting cocky .

Lol.
Unfortunately for me, I fell for the hype and played her to win the 1st set.

[flabrah5]

Lol.
Unfortunately for me, I fell for the hype and played her to win the 1st set.

Ouch. Even though I won I will admit I was scared and thought I was going to have to win in 3.

[BennyBigNuts]

Don't believe the Osaka hype boys.
She doesn't have what it takes to be elite.
She has the tennis Iq of a gnat, I've said this during her hot streak at IW.
She had a couple good tournaments and built some confidence just being on absolute fire hitting through everyone, but that cannot last and eventually you have to start thinking out there as players adjust to your gametapes.
I'm definitely not a buyer on Osaka's stock.
It peaked and now will settle back down to her norm.
Not saying she can't be consistently in the top 20, but doubt she'll never be dominant.
She's just not smart enough and won't have the mental capacity to handle that type of pressure.

[flabrah5]

I agree with that. A good run but not a winner of majors.

Can Errani please end this already?

[Honeybadger44]

Don't believe the Osaka hype boys.
She doesn't have what it takes to be elite.
She has the tennis Iq of a gnat, I've said this during her hot streak at IW.
She had a couple good tournaments and built some confidence just being on absolute fire hitting through everyone, but that cannot last and eventually you have to start thinking out there as players adjust to your gametapes.
I'm definitely not a buyer on Osaka's stock.
It peaked and now will settle back down to her norm.
Not saying she can't be consistently in the top 20, but doubt she'll never be dominant.
She's just not smart enough and won't have the mental capacity to handle that type of pressure.

I backed her today, despite being aware that her stock already peaked, as you said.

Did you watch the match? What were your impressions?

[BennyBigNuts]

I backed her today, despite being aware that her stock already peaked, as you said.

Did you watch the match? What were your impressions?

Don't know if you're trolling or being serious with your peaked comment.
I wasn't saying anything about her match today, just talking about her in general and how her expectations are now way too high and probably not doable for her.
She should have not been favored today. I did not pull the trigger on Goerges because I was still sour on the ingame bet I launched on her last week and lost on against Witthoeft, but I would have never in a million years taken Osaka as a favorite in that match and thought the line was ridiculous.

[Honeybadger44]

I was not trolling. As I said, I also thought that after win in IW, she will be overpriced in following tournaments (Had Svitolina vs her in Miami). Because she is very young and not used to have target on her back and as you pointed out, with this type of playing style it's very difficult to play on elite level with continuity.

I asked you for impressions, because I thought that Goerges was nothing special, similar to previous two tournaments. Making many errors and lucky to get a complete meltdown from her opponent. She overcooked bunch of ground strokes and in general was just not as precise as earlier this year.

And that is why I placed this bet. Because I thought Goerges is overvalued at the moment. She is carrying that price from couple of months ago, when she was playing some fenomenal tennis, even though she is currently nowhere near it.

[Steamroller]

Errani stupid oyster. Retire next time if you can't play.

[BennyBigNuts]

I was not trolling. As I said, I also thought that after win in IW, she will be overpriced in following tournaments (Had Svitolina vs her in Miami). Because she is very young and not used to have target on her back and as you pointed out, with this type of playing style it's very difficult to play on elite level with continuity.

I asked you for impressions, because I thought that Goerges was nothing special, similar to previous two tournaments. Making many errors and lucky to get a complete meltdown from her opponent. She overcooked bunch of ground strokes and in general was just not as precise as earlier this year.

And that is why I placed this bet. Because I thought Goerges is overvalued at the moment. She is carrying that price from couple of months ago, when she was playing some fenomenal tennis, even though she is currently nowhere near it.

Bro, not sure if you just don't like her but Goerges is a beast now.
Definitely didn't just have a good run a couple of months ago, it's been about 15 months.
Look at her numbers from last year. I crushed it betting on her in 2017.
Always been a battler on the tour, but she really found something last year and stepped her game up. Personally, I think it might have been steroids but who knows? I say that about a lot of people lol.
Steroids isn't just about your body, it's a mental edge.
Look at how far off Joker has fallen since he got off the juice.

[flabrah5]

Errani stupid oyster. Retire next time if you can't play.

Ruined a perfect day

[Honeybadger44]

Bro, not sure if you just don't like her but Goerges is a beast now.
Definitely didn't just have a good run a couple of months ago, it's been about 15 months.
Look at her numbers from last year. I crushed it betting on her in 2017.
Always been a battler on the tour, but she really found something last year and stepped her game up. Personally, I think it might have been steroids but who knows? I say that about a lot of people lol.
Steroids isn't just about your body, it's a mental edge.
Look at how far off Joker has fallen since he got off the juice.

That was why I asked for you comment. To see if I'm delusional and how others see her atm. Respect your oppinion for sure, but I'd still argue that she's in her beast mode now. That was in Auckland, St Petrsburg and Doha. I noticed already in her match vs Vikhlyantseva in IW that she is not the same. Faded her vs Sevastova immidietly after that. Then she lost to Witthoeft in Miami, confirming in my mind that she's in a slump. But that's just my oppinion, might be wrong...
And no, I don't hate her. Actually one of my favorite players on the tour. Always fancied her looks

Well skip the debate about Nole and steroids. It would be too time consuming and in the end we would have to agree to disagree.

[flabrah5]

I miss ol Nole

[BennyBigNuts]

That was why I asked for you comment. To see if I'm delusional and how others see her atm. Respect your oppinion for sure, but I'd still argue that she's in her beast mode now. That was in Auckland, St Petrsburg and Doha. I noticed already in her match vs Vikhlyantseva in IW that she is not the same. Faded her vs Sevastova immidietly after that. Then she lost to Witthoeft in Miami, confirming in my mind that she's in a slump. But that's just my oppinion, might be wrong...
And no, I don't hate her. Actually one of my favorite players on the tour. Always fancied her looks

Well skip the debate about Nole and steroids. It would be too time consuming and in the end we would have to agree to disagree.

Yeah I didn't mean beast mode at the moment, just in general over the past year and a half or so. The only reason I passed today was she's been looking a little off lately but after the match I gotta ask myself why was I such a pu$$y passing on her today when I told myself 10 times last night that price was stealing.
Oh well.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah I didn't mean beast mode at the moment, just in general over the past year and a half or so. The only reason I passed today was she's been looking a little off lately but after the match I gotta ask myself why was I such a pu$$y passing on her today when I told myself 10 times last night that price was stealing.
Oh well.

sure, I'm aware that she's been super hot in last year or so. But one of my betting philosophies is to spot these breaking points when a player is starting to increase or dropp the level of their performance. Market will need some time to adjust to it and we have short term window of opportunities to make some +ev bets, just based on market not acknowledging that form of the player has changed.

Not sure if that window is still open for fading Goerges. It was definitely there and I though I had a good feel where she is at, but I made a mistake with trusting Osaka here to do the kill. Didn't expect that she will go all Bernard Tomic on me here.