Chengdu Diary

**QuantumLeap** · 09-24-17, 09:44 PM

Donaldson -1.5 over Tsitsipas (Sunday night)
Big, big mismatch here. Tits has only played one Top 100 player in the past few months (Benoit Paire) and was resoundly beaten 2-6, 4-6.

Donaldson has beaten the likes of Basliashvili (twice), Paire and Pouille and gave Isner a good match in Cincinnati. He would have won that match had he not had a couple unforced errors. I'm chalking those up to the stage of the tournament he was in at the time.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-25-17, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Donaldson -1.5 over Tsitsipas (Sunday night)
Big, big mismatch here. Tits has only played one Top 100 player in the past few months (Benoit Paire) and was resoundly beaten 2-6, 4-6.

Donaldson has beaten the likes of Basliashvili (twice), Paire and Pouille and gave Isner a good match in Cincinnati. He would have won that match had he not had a couple unforced errors. I'm chalking those up to the stage of the tournament he was in at the time.

OK, Donaldson is up 1 point with sets tied at 1-1. He just needs to win out in order to cover this -1 1/2.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-25-17, 02:46 AM

Kind of sorry to see Tits go. He had quite a few aces in there.

That's not the most interesting thing. With the first 2 sets total at 25, it appeared obvious that when Donaldson was up 3-0 he was not even playing the ball during Tits' serves. The total was over/under 33.5. Donaldson would have to win 6-2 in order for the under to hit. Since he was giving up the serve to Tits it was bound to go over.

I'll have to pay more attention to moments like this.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-26-17, 12:01 AM

Yen-Hsun Lu -5 over Ymer

A much better talent playing a kid.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-26-17, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Yen-Hsun Lu -5 over Ymer

A much better talent playing a kid.

Man vs. boy in the 1st set. It's odd because Lu was setting shots where Ymer couldn't reach them until it was 5-1 then Lu started hitting shots into the net. Anyway, Lu lost serve in that game but was able to come back to take a serve from Ymer to make it 6-2. A simple win of the 2nd set will give at least a tie but I'm thinking Lu will continue to dominate here.

I also took Under 18.5 early in the set because of Lu's dominance but I'm not going to count that here. Now that I think of it maybe it wasn't the best bet considering how tennis fortunes can change during a match, even one this lopsided.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-26-17, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Yen-Hsun Lu -5 over Ymer

A much better talent playing a kid.

Lu 6-2, 6-3 winner.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-26-17, 02:33 AM

Baghdatis -3 over Pospisil

Baghdatis has only lost against Top 100 players.

Pops has not won in 2 months.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-26-17, 02:36 AM

Monteiro +4.5 over Sugita

**QuantumLeap** · 09-27-17, 12:03 AM

Loss Struff -3 over Istomin
Istomin wins outright.

WIN Donaldson -1.5 over Tsitsipas

WIN (easily) Yen-Hsun Lu -5 over Ymer

Loss Baghdatis -3 over Pospisil
Baghdatis wins by 2.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-27-17, 12:04 AM

I also like Laaksonen +1 1/2 over Copil but that's the Shenzhen tournament, not Chengdu.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-27-17, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Monteiro +4.5 over Sugita

Loss
Sugita 6-4, 6-1

Laaksonen was a win but I won't count it because he played in Shenzhen, not Chengdu so that makes me 2-3 for this tournament.

Something interesting again in the Sugita match. Score was 6-4, 5-1 (16 games total at that point) with Monteiro serving and the game tied at Deuce. The Under was at 17.5 +160. That means if Sugita wins the game the total will end up at 17. Now as the score indicates, Sugita was dominating Monteiro for that set. I would think the odds would be closer to even for a Sugita win of the game.

Sugita holds on to win the game by winning the next 2 points and the match goes under 17.5.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-27-17, 11:53 PM

Pella +4 over Thiem

**QuantumLeap** · 09-28-17, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Pella +4 over Thiem

Pella wins outright.

3-3 in this thread (excluding Laaksonen)>

**QuantumLeap** · 09-28-17, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Loss
Sugita 6-4, 6-1

Laaksonen was a win but I won't count it because he played in Shenzhen, not Chengdu so that makes me 2-3 for this tournament.

Something interesting again in the Sugita match. Score was 6-4, 5-1 (16 games total at that point) with Monteiro serving and the game tied at Deuce. The Under was at 17.5 +160. That means if Sugita wins the game the total will end up at 17. Now as the score indicates, Sugita was dominating Monteiro for that set. I would think the odds would be closer to even for a Sugita win of the game.

Sugita holds on to win the game by winning the next 2 points and the match goes under 17.5.

Same thing happened for a 3rd time. Lu had won the first set 6-2 against Rublev and was dominating in the 2nd set when Rublev won his first game making it 3-1 for a total of 12 games at that point. The live betting had the total under 17.5 +160 (or close to it). I believe this was as a result of Rublev's recent game he won.

However, Lu was still dominating. Since the game total was at 12, if Lu won out 6-1 the total would be 15. That means Rublev could still win 2 games and the total would go under. If Lu and Rublev matched serve Rublev would only win 2 more and this would go under.

Lu ended up winning 6-2, 6-1 causing it to go way under. I'm going to have to look at these matches where 1 player is dominating to see if similar scenarios arise.

**QuantumLeap** · 09-28-17, 05:34 PM

Donaldson -2.5 (fading Istomen)

Dzumhur +3.5

Parlay:
Dolgopolev & Laaksonen -116

**QuantumLeap** · 09-29-17, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Donaldson -2.5 (fading Istomen)

Dzumhur +3.5

Parlay:
Dolgopolev & Laaksonen -116

Loss Donaldson
Lost in a tie-breaker in the last set.

WINNER Dzumhur
Dzumhur won outright.

WINNER Dolgopolev & Laaksonen
Laaksonen went to 3 sets and Dolgo's opponent withdrew after 1 set.