French Open Quarters

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  • Wheell
    SBR MVP
    • 01-11-07
    • 1380

    #1
    French Open Quarters
    Been a while since I've had the time to post some picks/info here.

    Women's QF's:

    Maria Sharapova -120 for 1 unit WSEX.

    I must confess a little trepidation on this play as Sharapova is still not 100% healthy but so much of women's tennis comes down to who has the bigger balls on the tight points. There is a reason Martina Navratilova won so many grand slams. At -120 the price is simply too good to take in what the stats (for the tournament) would say is a fairly close matchup.

    Men's QF's:

    Fernando Gonzalez +150 for 1 unit WSEX.

    I actually unloaded on this but I want to quote currently available prices. I have a total of 4 units on Gonzo here. I don't expect a mental collapse by either player but I cannot justify making Murray a favorite on clay. He simply does not have the pedigree to lay -150 here.

    Nicolay Davydenko -190 for 1 unit WSEX.

    Nadal was tired. Soderling has just won the match of his life. There is no way you can convince me that mentally he isn't ready to roll over and smoke a cigarette.

    A lot of places don't have prices yet but for tomorrow I will be on Federer (Monfils is out of his depth unless Federer was exhausted by Haas), Robredo (the price strikes me as a joke, I expect to have 4 units on Robredo by match time), and Stosur (although I do have a great deal of respect for Cirstea).

    Good luck to all of you.
  • SportsTerminator
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-18-09
    • 5179

    #2
    I don't know much about tennis but I did do a little research. It's hard for me to play on Davydenko when his opponent just beat NADAL lol. I'm definately getting some action on 1 of the 4 games today. Murray being the 3rd seed I would think he would win. Now that the opportunity is open for him and Federer. SAFINA being the number 1 seed should win but -395 is a lot chalk. And AZARENKA just beat the former champ and AZARENKA beat Safina in the Indian Wells. Sorry for the caps I copied and paste the text lol. I'm hearing a lot of good things on Safina winning and Davydenko. I want to take Davydenko but Soldering beat NADAL, NADAL lol. And Safina that's a lot of chalk.
    Bet To Win
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    • Karayilan9
      Restricted User
      • 01-10-09
      • 3742

      #3
      SportsTerminator Soderling beating Nadal is like the Washington Wizards beating the NBA champs, you know what happens to the Wizards in the next game Well Soderling isn't as bad in comparison, he does have a chance here but it gets all psychological at this stage. Neither Soderling or Davydenko expected to be here, well maybe Davy deep down thought he had an outside chance. Davy is the more proven player but Soderling may have that self belief that he'll upset the odds till the very end.
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      • Wheell
        SBR MVP
        • 01-11-07
        • 1380

        #4
        Apparently my picks have been fadeworthy so far.

        In my case I have a good day if Gonzo wins, but as I write this Davy is down in straight sets, Sharapova is getting swept 4-0, and Gonzo... is up 1-0 and has a break point. We'll see how this ends.
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        • Wheell
          SBR MVP
          • 01-11-07
          • 1380

          #5
          Despite people's opinions of Crazylou he is 100% right to be on big Federer. Monfils does not match up well with Federer.

          Roger Federer -320 for 2 units.

          Samantha Stosur -140 for 1 unit.

          Again, I expect the let down.

          Robredo +400 for 1 unit.

          You cannot possibly convince me that Del Potro will win more than 80% of the time. I'll buy that he is the favorite, but not that he wins that often.

          Good luck to everyone making a play on the French Open tomorrow.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            GL with your plays, well not the Robredo one I have some props on Del Potro winning in certain #s of sets, but the rest! GL!
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            • HeeeHAWWWW
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-13-08
              • 5487

              #7
              The problem with Robredo is his miserable, miserable record against the top10: he's just weaponless against them. Also pretty poor against huge servers, eg 0/10 vs Roddick, 0/3 vs karlovic.

              Potro will simply outslug him, Robredo has no weapons at all to hurt him. Then there's the serve - as above Robredo struggles vs the huge serve, while Potro is underrated a lot on that count. On clay he gets nearly everything back, and once in the rally he's simply superior to Robredo on nearly every score.
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              • Wheell
                SBR MVP
                • 01-11-07
                • 1380

                #8
                Well, I'm off to a good start having won the Fed and Stosur matches, but yeah it does seem like DP is unthreatened by Robredo so far.
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                • SBR Lou
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-02-07
                  • 37863

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Wheell
                  Despite people's opinions of Crazylou he is 100% right to be on big Federer. Monfils does not match up well with Federer.

                  Straight sets for Fed, good win for him today. Del Potro has been his bunny and was double bageled by him in the Aussie, even on clay I'm not seeing Del Potro taking a set unless he steals a TB.
                  Comment
                  • Wheell
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-11-07
                    • 1380

                    #10
                    If Soderling really has made "The Jump" then maybe he can threaten Fed. Maybe gonzo on a good day can push him. However, right now I see Fed winning this thing with ease.
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