FedCupping

[frugalgambler]

Thanks to reedy for reminding me about this. This FedCup week-end should be kickass. I love the fact that motivation is usually not a problem in this event.

Just a quick analysis of the upcoming matchups. Halep postponed her surgery to play for her country against the defending champs, who are without Safarova but still have two top-10 players available. Will Halep be able to power them through on home soil ? By the way, why no clay love for Halep ? There are no clay courts in Romania ?

Sharapova showed up in Moscow to qualify for Rio, but she basically told everybody to go f.ck themselves, she ain't playing in this competition no more. This tie is the only one in which the dogs have no chance of barking, but you never know, this is WTA after all.

Germany-Swiss chocolate and Italy-France might be supertight; all main players on those teams are more or less evenly matched. Interesting that Germans with Kerber and Petko and at home, are only -125 favs against the Swiss girls. Hingis will probably play doubles, are the bookies so afraid to see her there ?

I'll throw some darts in a few mins.

[frugalgambler]

Let's throw some darts. I'll be lucky to break-even, but I love FedCup.

These overs are 1u each @-115 on average
Bencic/Giorgi/Errani o21.5; Kerber o20
(I think a little letdown from the newly minted GS champ might be in order).

Halep -1.5 sets @+135 for 0.75u. She has never lost a set to Pliskova and I think she won't lose here as well, but then again Halep has not played for a while, and I hope her nose still works.

Degen parlay: Halep + Kvitova ML, 1u to win 0.93u. I'd be surprised if the score is not 1-1 after day one in this tie.

Dumbass parlay: Russia + Germany to advance 1u to win 0.88u
Long-shot dart: Italy to advance 0.5u @+175

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

Adding extra 0.5u on Garcia o22.5 @-105. These two have played five tight matches already. Why not another one ?

Addendum: forgot to mention that these are leans and this thread is for tracking purposes only. I wanna see if I know anything about WTA or not. I'd recommend not tailing blindly, if at all. Any input would be appreciated.

[novicebeast]

A parlay in WTA; thats fascinating but I tend to keep away from lot of WTA matches unless some of my favourites are playing. Love Bencic and Giorgi in this fed cup match-up though.... And of course my new GS queen and favorite Kerber... Saw her first at FO 2012.. Knew she was special right there and then...
Anyway gud luck with your parlays mate... Love to see people (and myself) winning parlays...

[frugalgambler]

Thanks buddy.

Fascinating first day, but I was on the wrong side pretty much everywhere. Lost another over by a hook, that hurts. Looks like I am roughly 3.5u under. But no chasing in this thread.

Anyhoo, three matches are tied at 1-1 and Russians find themselves in a big hole as -2500 favs. Will Sharapova play ? I think her presence on the bench with a big "f.ck off FedCup" attitude did not really inspire her teammates. If she does not play today, Kuzzy will have to play after a record breaking 4-hour loss, against an excellent FedCup player in Bertens. It is either Kuzzy or the inexperienced Kasatkina. Russia is suffering a lot from the loss of their captain, who is a freaking magician.

[frugalgambler]

F.cking BM dropped the totals altogether. And 5d is juicing them to -115 as usual.

[GoBlue77]

Tell me why I shouldn't take Halep over Kvitova

[xdodger19]

Halep vs Kvitova
Halep first set maybe?

[frugalgambler]

Lots of juicy overs here, historically these FedCup matches are pretty tight, especially the elimination matches. But then again Day 1 matches were not that tight, for the most part at any rate.

Anyhoo, let's start with Bertens +3.5 @-105 & o21 for 1u each. Kuzzy is such a headcase, and I dunno how this 30-year old can recover from a marathon loss. Let's see how it goes. The match starts in 45 mins and there are no indications Kuzzy will not be playing.

[frugalgambler]

Tell me why I shouldn't take Halep over Kvitova

Hmm, I am tempted to take Halep here as well. Hard to imagine her postponing a surgery to lose both matches, and Kvitova seems to be off this year. My only problem is that Kvitova is a well-tested FedCup player, while Halep can self-destruct almost at any time. And Halep is probably playing injured here.

[frugalgambler]

OK, let's throw some more darts. All leans are 1u, unless specified otherwise.

Halep 1set o9.5 @+110 for 0.75u; Halep 2-0 @+166 for 0.5u
Bencic +4 @-105
Petko o21.5
Giorgi o21
Errani 1st o9.5 @+110 for 0.75u
Niculescu o22 @+110

[frugalgambler]

Bah, +2u on the 2nd day; but lost -1.5u on the pending parlays. -3u on the thread.

Still, a pretty riveting week-end. Who knew the Russians would lose 0-3 as -2500 favs. Could've been worse. Looking at the draws, this will probably end as a Swiss-French final.